Would The Bucs Trade For Micah Parsons? What Is Fair Value?

The negotiations between Micah Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys spilled over this week as Parsons aired his grievances publicly with the questionable manner in how Jerry Jones and the Cowboys leadership had conducted themselves. As a part of those grievances, he officially requested a trade.

For its part, Dallas has said the team has no intention of trading him. And the Cowboys won’t. For all the ink spilled over this standoff, at some point in the future – probably sooner rather than later – Dallas will make Parsons the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL. The price will be somewhere around $42.5 million per year over four or five years.

Given the announcement of Parsons’ request it has naturally led to thought exercises surrounding what a trade would look like for various teams around the league to secure his services. Thought exercises like this one from our friends at WDAE 95.3 FM.

Would you make this trade for Micah Parsons? #WeAreTheKrewe #iHeartRadio❤️ pic.twitter.com/gq61T2NfE4

— 95.3 WDAE & AM620 (@953WDAE) August 2, 2025

Now let’s get two things out of the way right off the jump. First, let me re-iterate that the likelihood of Parsons being available for trade is almost nonexistent. Secondly, this is not to advocate for or against this hypothetical trade. But it is more of an evaluation of the trade offer itself to determine whether it represents fair value.

This type of analysis is of extreme interest to me, as I have done extensive research on valuations of players and picks alike. If you have any interest yourself, please feel free to check out this research, I have made available for free on my Substack.

How did our radio friends at WDAE do with their hypothetical trade suggestion? Let’s take a look.

Micah Parsons’ Value In A Trade

Micah Parsons is under contract for the 2025 season under his fifth-year option of just over $24 million. His value is roughly $42.5 million. When considering the surplus value from his contract his value in the narrowest of terms comes to $61 million. Adjusted for this year’s salary cap, that is equal to the No. 16 overall pick in the draft.

But trading for Parsons doesn’t just give the acquiring team control over Parsons for 2025. Theoretically they could franchise tag the star pass rusher in both 2026 and 2027.

OverTheCap.com has the 2026 linebacker franchise tag estimated at $27.747 million. If the Bucs were to acquire Parsons, he would play outside linebacker and so this should be the prevailing valuation. The 2027 tag would be at a 20% premium over that, bring the two-year total to $61,043,400. Include 2025 and an acquiring team could control Parsons for three years at a cost of around $85 million. Factor in the savings of that price against his market/on-field value of $127.5 million and he’s worth at least $170 million total.

But the reality is that if a team were to trade for him there would likely be a deal in place with Parsons for an extension. I’m estimating that extension at four years and $170 million. Total control in that scenario would be five years for $194 million. His total value would be $231 million.

The Value Of The Bucs’ Hypothetical Trade Package

OLB Yaya Diaby

Let’s start with Yaya Diaby using the same valuation process, as WDAE suggested a trade for Micah Parsons that involved Diaby, a 2026 first-round pick and a 2027 first-round pick. If Diaby were allowed to hit free agency right now his value would be right in the same area as recent deals for George Karlaftis and Greg Rousseau. Let’s use Karlaftis as the base since it gives Diaby the greatest value.

The Bucs have Diaby under contract for 2025 and 2026 for the low, low cost of $2,742,140. That starts his value at $85,257,860. But given the strong start to his career and the aforementioned valuation we can reasonably assume that whatever team he is on would be interested in an extension as early as next year. A four-year extension signed next year would put him under control through 2030. Totaling everything up would place his trade value at $173.25 million.

The difference at this point between Parsons and Diaby is $57.75 million. This is the same value as the No. 19 overall pick.

2026 First-Round Pick

We don’t have visibility to know where the Bucs are picking next year. Therefore, we cannot peg an exact value to the pick. But we can estimate the range of where the two teams would agree that pick would be in a negotiation. A move like acquiring Parsons is one a team makes to get a Super Bowl ring. But let’s set a floor of pick No. 20. That puts the value of that range between $46.75 and 56.72 million.

Accounting For the Future

But there is the time value of assets to consider. Those values refer to 2025 draft picks that would provide immediate value to a team. It has long been proven in draft pick trades that teams discount future picks. Most accepted discounting analysis applies a one round decrement for each year in the future a pick goes.

A 2026 first-rounder would be valued the same as a 2025 second-rounder. A 2027 first-rounder would be valued similarly as a 2025 third-rounder, and so on and so forth. Taking that into account, the adjusted value of this pick falls to $32.05 million to $36.45 million.

2027 First-Round Pick

We can apply the same process to the 2027 first-round pick included in the trade. Being two years in the future, the pick would be treated like a present-year late third-rounder in the range of $23.45 to $26.82 million.

All told, the total value of all three assets would be between $228.75 million and $266.42 million. That puts Parsons just on the low end of that range. If you take a midpoint view – call it $250 million for the sake of round numbers – the Bucs would be heavy by about $19 million. A 2026 third-rounder going back to Tampa Bay would balance the scales.

An Alternative Time Depreciation Method

While the round depreciation method is common practice currently, it might be a method that is slowly becoming outdated. A new process is being considered by people around the league. That would be a 10% discount rate per year.

This would change the value of the future first-rounders to $80 million on the low end and $97 million on the high end. It would change the total package range to $253.25 – $270.25 million. This would put Parsons’ value outside the package range and would probably adjust the 2027 first-rounder to just a third-round pick.

But getting back to the original point – what would amount to a fair offer for Parsons? – this package is pretty close to the mark.

BUCS GET
OLB Micah Parsons
Dallas third-round pick in 2026

COWBOYS GET
OLB Yaya Diaby
Tampa Bay first-round pick in 2026
Tampa Bay first-round pick in 2027

Would the Bucs go for it? I’m not sure. It wouldn’t be dismissed out of hand though. And it’s interesting that both Parsons and Diaby are 26 years old.

It would certainly prompt a conversation. And while it may not be the final package in a hypothetical trade it isn’t an outlandish consideration.

The Bucs have traded for veterans in the past – yet not to this degree. They have acquired Logan Mankins, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Mason in the past for draft pick capital. The team is always looking for ways to improve its roster through all available methods.

But with Parsons not really being on the trading block, this all comes back to just a fun, hypothetical exercise courtesy of our friends at WDAE 95.3 FM.