Which NFC South Foe Is Bucs’ Biggest Threat?

A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough Bucs question. This week’s prompt: Which NFC South foe is the Bucs’ biggest threat?

Scott Reynolds: Panthers Will Remain The Biggest Threat To The Bucs

Carolina did something last year that no one saw coming. The Panthers stole the NFC South crown away from the Bucs, who had won the division four years in a row since 2021. Both Carolina and Tampa Bay got a win on their home field, splitting the series, and both teams also finished 8-9 with Dave Canales and Co. winning the division via a tie-breaker. Canales has the Panthers trending upward, improving from a 5-12 record in his first season as head coach in 2024. And, as a result, they remain the biggest threat to the Buccaneers heading into 2026.

The Panthers have benefited from drafting some good players and developing them over the past two years. Carolina’s first-round pick, wide receiver Tetaroia McMillan, had 1,000 yards in 2025 and won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Second-round pick Nic Scourton had five sacks off the edge last year as a rookie and teamed with defensive tackle Derrick Brown to form a nice, one-two punch up front.

Carolina still has work to do on a defense that has an emerging star cornerback in Mike Jackson along with Jaycee Horn, but with another solid draft the unit can make some real strides towards becoming more formidable. Finding another pass rusher to help boost the Panthers’ pass rush, which only recorded 30 sacks last year, along with an impact linebacker will be a priority for general manager Dan Morgan, who was a former NFL linebacker himself.

Canales deserves credit for revitalizing quarterback Bryce Young, the team’s former first-round pick. Young set career highs for completion percentage (63.3%), passing yards (3,011) and passing touchdowns (23), while adding a pair of rushing touchdowns on the ground in 2025. The arrow is pointing up for Young because Carolina has a strong, complementary running game that features the two-headed attack of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, who combined for 1,500 yards rushing and seven touchdowns.

The Panthers lost two divisional games in December by a total of six points. A last-second field goal by the Saints at New Orleans was costly in a 20-17 loss and the Bucs beat the Panthers in the rain in the season finale, 16-14, after Carolina fumbled inside Tampa Bay’s red zone. Flip those two close outcomes and Carolina would’ve finished with 10 wins in 2025.

Matt Matera: Despite Flaws, The Falcons Still Have The Most Talent

The Falcons have had the most tumultuous offseason already in the NFC South and yet I think they have a chance to be the best team in the division and the biggest threat to the Buccaneers. What it really comes down to is if you believe in new head coach Kevin Stefanski or not. As long as Atlanta has Bijan Robinson at running back and a number one receiver in Drake London, they’ll be competitive offensively. They also know how to defeat the Bucs, evidenced by a 3-1 record versus Tampa Bay over the last two seasons.

Stefanski typically has gotten a lot out of his quarterbacks, which is why he’s won NFL Coach of the Year honors twice. That makes it more plausible that former first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. can be at his best with Stefanski as long as he comes off his injury. The Falcons will continue to ride Robinson and the running game, as he’s a top 5 player in the league. Even if Atlanta loses out tight end Kyle Pitts to free agency, the team is one skill position player away from being top offensive unit because of Robinson and London. 

Atlanta’s pass rush will take a step back with edge rusher James Pearce being in serious legal trouble that will keep him off the field for a long time, possibly ending his career. It’s difficult to replace his 10.5-sack production that he had as a rookie. With that said, retaining Jeff Ulbrich as defensive coordinator was big for the Falcons. Ulbrich is one of the best defensive play-callers in the league and has never just relied on one player’s production. 

Plus, the Falcons have a dynamo in safety Xavier Watts, who heading into his second year after recording four interceptions as a rookie. Even as the offense struggled due inconsistent quarterback play, it was the defense that kept the Falcons in games and pulled off a big upset win over the Rams late in the season. Let’s remember, there were three 8-9 teams in the NFC South. The Falcons won their last four in a row and have a higher ceiling than anyone else. And they have the Bucs’ number having won three of their last four matchups.

Adam Slivon: Dave Canales Is Really Building Something In Carolina

When Dave Canales was hired to be the Panthers head coach, the team was coming off a 2-15 season. The consensus thought at the time is that it would take a couple of years for Canales and general manager Dan Morgan’s vision to lead to on-field success. Fast forward just two seasons, and it has already started to take shape. They are fresh off an 8-9 year that was enough to win the NFC South, and they have improved while adding talent on both sides of the ball.

It is as much about talent as it is coaching, and the “optimist bully” has had success running the offense with defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero highly thought of across the league. Defensively is where the lack of star power is evident. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown is one of the NFL’s best run-stuffers, but he was also the leading sacker with five sacks.

Like the Bucs, the Panthers will be looking to add outside pass rushing help in a major way. Carolina’s linebackers were solid, while the secondary boasts cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Michael Jackson, who combined for nine interceptions. Evero has found a way to get the most of their talent, and the team’s floor has been raised with Canales at the helm.

Quarterback Bryce Young is not a world beater, but he has shown the ability to be a solid enough game manager with pieces around him. The Panthers might not have Bijan Robinson, but running backs Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard combined for 370 carries, 1,587 rushing yards, and seven touchdowns.

Canales’ offensive philosophy lives by the “Keep Pounding” mantra. The wide receiving corps is a little bit of a patchwork group, but it is led by Tet McMillan, coming off a 1,000-yard year that resulted in him winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The offensive line has a case to be the NFC South’s best, with two bookend tackles and two solid guards Carolina rightfully invested in. It has reached a point where they are on the same level as Tampa Bay, with this offseason being a critical juncture in determining who leads the division.

Bailey Adams: The Saints Could Get Back To The Top Of The South

As much as I don’t want to pick the Saints here, that’s what I’m doing. The combination of how New Orleans finished the 2025 season and the schedule it’ll face in 2026 makes them a real threat to prevent the Bucs from regaining the NFC South crown. The Saints haven’t won the division or made the playoffs since Drew Brees’ final season in 2020, but there’s a chance that drought ends in 2026.

The Saints were 2-10 heading into December last season, but they rallied down the stretch and finished on a 4-1 run to end up 6-11 on the year. With the way New Orleans was playing as a team and the way rookie quarterback Tyler Shough started to get rolling, there’s a case to be made that if the season was a few weeks longer, Kellen Moore’s squad might’ve come all the way back to win the division. Shough already has a case for being the division’s second-best quarterback behind Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield.

In that December run, the Saints beat the Bucs in Tampa and then beat the eventual NFC South champion Panthers the next week. And while their next two wins came over the Jets and Titans, that brings us to the other aspect of what makes the Saints sneaky dangerous in 2026.

Even with its hot finish, New Orleans finished 2025 in last place in the division. That means a last-place schedule in 2026, so while the Bucs are matched up with the Cowboys, Rams and Chargers in their extra games, the Saints have the Raiders, Cardinals and Giants. Given how tight the NFC South race tends to be, those few games could ultimately be the difference between the Bucs returning to the top of the division and the upstart Saints holding them off and breaking their own drought.

Josh Queipo: Bucs Must Beware Of The Improving Saints In 2026

What’s the fastest way to rebuild an NFL franchise? Find a quarterback. So when this topic was proposed to our group I asked, “Outside of Baker Mayfield, which NFC South team has the best quarterback?” Despite his lack of experience, I am going with Tyler Shough, and thus the New Orleans Saints.

Shough went 5-4 as a starter, including a win at Tampa Bay, and threw for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes. Derek Carr’s retirement last year was a gift to the franchise, helping New Orleans escape the salary cap hell and death spiral the team was in.

Beyond Shough, Taliese Fuanga and Kelvin Banks Jr. look to be a solid offensive tackle duo providing protection for Shough. As long as Chris Olave remains healthy – something he did last year – he has a top tier weapon to get the ball to. DeVaughn Vele also emerged as a chain-moving possession receiver down the stretch.

Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley led the defense to a top-10 finish. The secondary has a strong mix of talent including cornerbacks Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor, and safeties Jonas Sanker and Justin Reid. Rookie linebacker Danny Stutsman had a strong inaugural campaign. Up front, defensive end Chase Young is coming off his best season as a pro and Cam Jordan, who will be a free agent, also had a strong finish. Will the team re-sign Jordan and middle linebacker Demario Davis, both of whom turn 37 this year?

Yet it all comes back to Shough. He made some amazing throws and showed fantastic poise down the stretch last year. The Saints averaged 24.8 points their last five games of the season in which New Orleans with a 4-1 record. With Shough leading the way the Saints are as dangerous as they have been since Drew Brees was under center.