In theory, or, at least, from the perspective of someone who does not gamble on sports, I figured an MLB pitcher has limited options for manipulating individual player prop bets. For all that a pitcher can control a game with their stuff, so much of the mechanics of hits and strikeouts and home runs allowed are dependent on the batter. The statistic the pitcher seemingly has the most control over, walks, still requires some level of cooperation by the hitter—try as you might, you will only walk Javy Báez if he agrees to be walked.
But this thinking, I now see, revolved around my false perception of “normal gambling maneuvers.” Normal gambling maneuvers now contain a much broader and more granular variety of prop bets, down to ball/strike calls on individual pitches. That particular bet would be easy to manipulate—but also easier to flag.
This variety of bet is reportedly why MLB is investigating starting pitcher Luis L. Ortiz of the Cleveland Guardians for violating the league’s gambling policy. According to ESPN, a betting-integrity firm flagged bets placed on two specific pitches: a slider to Randy Arozarena on June 15, and a slider to Pedro Pagés on June 27. Both pitches were the first of their respective innings, with Arozarena’s opening the bottom of the second (in what would eventually become a 57-pitch inning) and Pagés’s opening the top of the third. The bets were reportedly on those pitches being a ball or a hit-by-pitch; both pitches were rather extremely outside the zone.
Here is Ortiz’s pitch against Arozarena:
And here is Ortiz’s pitch against Pagés.
The eye test does not look great, but also isn’t necessarily damning on its own. The first pitch to Arozarena is within tolerance; the pitch against Pagés is one of the most egregious balls you’ll ever see. Of course, the pitches have to be put in the context of Ortiz’s normal spread. Sometimes pitchers are just bad. Luckily for us and perhaps unluckily for Ortiz, MLB is in the position of having a plethora of data to help pinpoint outliers. On a basic level, here is the location of every slider Ortiz has thrown for a ball in 2025:
The upper marked pitch is Ortiz’s ball to Arozarena, which is an edge case but maybe not a smoking gun. The lower marked pitch is the one to Pagés, and is one of the most egregious balls he’s thrown this year.
There’s more. As Matt Trueblood noted on Bluesky, while Ortiz’s pitch to Arozarena wasn’t a massive outlier by the time it crossed the plate, his delivery at release was—it was the highest arm angle on any slider he’d thrown that year.
MLB’s investigation will require some evidence beyond circumstantial Statcast findings. But in terms of defending Luis Ortiz from hasty judgments before the investigation ends … sorry, man, I just watched the videos again, and I got nothing for you.