El Niño phenomenon is preparing to return.
Meteorologists say the world’s strongest weather pattern could return later this year, and if it does, it could have enough of an impact to reshape the weather across the Golden State.
The development of El Niño could reshape the 2026 hurricane season, which begins June 1, by changing the number and intensity of storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.
They expect a 1 in 3 chance of a super El Niño occurring in October, November and December.
It could unleash extreme heat waves, lead to severe droughts, and cause floods around the world.
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“El Niño is coming,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather he wrote on social media as the new predictions emerged in.
If this pattern strengthens, California could see the classic El Niño extreme: severe winter storms, flood risks, and unusually warm temperatures in much of the state.
Some researchers say that a developing system can become a powerful system. Climate scientist Daniel Swain said recent models increasingly point to a “large, if not powerful” event.
El Niño occurs when waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean warm unusually, changing jet streams and weather patterns across the planet. The cycle – known to scientists as ENSO – oscillates between warm El Niño phases and cooler La Niña phases.
The current La Niña event that helped shape the current weather is now fading, paving the way for a flip.
For California, this shift is important.
Historically, strong El Niño winters have brought heavy rains across the southern United States and parts of the West Coast, sometimes creating the kind of storms that can lead to floods and mudslides after years of drought.
It can also ripple beyond the state. El Niño years often rank among the hottest globally, and they can also influence hurricane seasons — typically suppressing storms in the Atlantic while enhancing activity in the Pacific.
Currently, scientists confirm that the strength of the event is still uncertain. But with warm water already accumulating beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, the odds are growing that this climate heavyweight will soon be back in the ring.