The old brick farm, where Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys and ducks, was in luck this Thanksgiving season.
The small Dole farm west of Detroit has not seen any cases of bird flu, despite an ongoing outbreak that has killed more than 2 million American turkeys in the past three months alone. It also avoided another disease, avian coronavirus, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs.
“I try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing in other animals from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well,” said Doll, whose farm has been in his family for five generations.
But Doll is still seeing the impact as these diseases shrink the U.S. turkey flock to its lowest level in 40 years this year. The hatchery where he gets turkey chicks was fewer in number this year. He plans to order another 100 baby birds soon, although they won’t arrive until July.
“If you don’t get your order in early, you won’t get it,” he said.
Thank you costs vary
The shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year, according to the USDA. Despite this increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkey prices to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients needed to prepare the rest of the holiday feast may not be. For example, tariffs on imported steel have increased the prices of canned goods.
As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples — including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russian russet potatoes, a can of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce — cost $58.81, or 4.1% more than last year, according to Datasembly, a market research firm that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores. That’s higher than the average increase in prices for foods eaten at home, which rose 2.7% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Datasembly showed a 2% decrease in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of November 17. Pricing Thanksgiving meals is not an exact science, and the company’s calculation differed from other estimates.
The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey prices, reported that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will cost $55.16 this year, or 5% less than last year. The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that feeding 10 people on a Thursday using store-brand products would cost $80 this year, 2% to 3% less than last year’s estimate.
Turkey prices are attractive
Grocery chains also offer offers to attract shoppers. Grocery store Aldi advertises a $40 meal for 10 with 21 items. Shoppers can feed 10 people for less than $50 with the store’s menu of branded products, Kroger said.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump touted Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket, which he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that was because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.
“We are seeing some promotions being implemented to try to attract customers to the store,” said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University.
This comes despite a sharp rise in wholesale turkey prices since August. In the second week of November, the average price of 8- to 16-pound frozen chickens was $1.77 per pound, up 81% from the same time last year, according to Mark Jordan, CEO of Leap Market Analytics, which closely tracks poultry and livestock markets.
Avian viruses are the main culprit. But another reason for Turkey’s higher wholesale prices is increased consumer demand as other meats become more expensive, Jordan said. Beef prices rose 14% in September from a year ago, for example.
“For a large segment of the population, they look at a cut of steak and say, ‘I can’t or I don’t want to pay $30 a pound,'” Jordan said.
That’s the case for Paul Nadeau, a retired consultant from Austin, Texas, who plans to smoke a turkey this week. Nadeau said he usually smokes brisket over Thanksgiving weekend, but the brisket he buys will now cost more than $100. Türkiye prices have also gone up at his local HEB store, but not as much, he said.
“I don’t know of anything that has gone down in price since last year except eggs,” Nadeau said.
Tariffs and weather
The tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum imports are also causing prices to rise. Farouk El Mokawlad, a distinguished professor of management and global business at Rutgers Business School, said customers pay between 10 cents to 40 cents more per box when companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.
Tariffs may be partly responsible for the increased cost of cranberry sauce, which rose 38% from last year in a Datasembly survey. But weather was also a factor. U.S. cranberry production is expected to decline by 9% this year, impacted by drought conditions in Massachusetts, according to the USDA.
Dry weather in Illinois, where most of the nation’s canning squash is grown, has actually helped stave off diseases that are more prevalent in humid conditions, said Rajella Scavuzzo, associate director of food systems development at the Illinois Farm Bureau and executive director of the Illinois Specialty Farmers Association. Datasembly found that a 30-ounce box of pumpkin pie mix costs 5% less than last year.
Farm to table
Back at the old brick farm, which had been in his family since 1864, Dole walked among his turkeys the week before Thanksgiving, patting their heads as they waddled between their warm barn and an open pasture. Within a few days, he planned to deliver them to an Amish butcher.
Dole has sold all 92 turkeys he raised this year, with customers paying $6.50 per pound for what many say is the best turkey they’ve ever tasted. He said he enjoys the little profit and the good feeling of serving a holiday meal.
“I like to think that we’re, you know, not only providing them with food, but also the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner,” he said.
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