Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.
The Bucs begin their season on the road for the third time in the last four years, this time at Atlanta versus a Falcons team that swept them in 2024. Tampa Bay got the last laugh with a strong surge down the stretch as Atlanta faded, losing the NFC South lead to the Bucs, who won their fourth straight division title. Are the Falcons a legitimate threat in the NFC South? Are the Bucs serious Super Bowl contenders? Week 1 will begin to tell the tale for both division rivals.
What’s At Stake For The Bucs
The Bucs open their 2025 campaign in Atlanta on September 7, and the stakes couldn’t be clearer. A win gives Tampa Bay ownership of the NFC South from the opening whistle as the Bucs shoot for a record fifth straight division title. These two teams traded places as the top two in the NFC South last year. The Bucs came from behind to finish 10-7 as division champs, while the Falcons Falconed, which means they choked down the stretch to lose the lead and finish a disappointing 8-9 in second place despite sweeping Tampa Bay.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Falcons HC Raheem Morris – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
On the line for the Bucs is some early momentum, bragging rights, and a critical tiebreaker that could echo all season. In this rivalry, opening statement matters. The Bucs aren’t just defending a title. They’re announcing they’re still the team to beat. Beat the Falcons right out of the gate at their place and force Atlanta to sprint uphill all season long.
Both teams come into Week 1 with serious aspirations to seize early control. The Bucs have payback on their mind and have a successful track record in Week 1, starting each of the last three seasons 1-0 under Todd Bowles. If Tampa Bay wants to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender in the NFC, winning games like the season opener need to happen.
What’s At Stake For The Falcons
The Falcons opens their 2025 campaign at home at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against a Bucs team they know they can beat. After a disappointing 8-9 finish and another lost playoff opportunity, the Falcons need a statement. Coach Raheem Morris flat-out said “2025 starts today,” the day after a crushing overtime loss to Carolina in Atlanta in Week 18 last year to wind up with yet another losing season. There’s no better moment to prove it than in Week 1 at home against the Buccaneers.
Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London – Photo by: USA Today
Threats loom up front, as both starting right tackle Kaleb McGary and swing tackle Storm Norton are sidelined, which puts QB Michael Penix Jr., who is getting just his fourth career start, in immediate jeopardy from pressure. And even though Atlanta is a modest 2.5-point home underdog, they’ve shown a knack for early surprises – winning four of their last five home openers as underdogs.
This Week 1 rivalry matchup isn’t just a game – it’s a litmus test for the Falcons. A win sets optimism in motion and extends their mastery over the Bucs. Meanwhile, a loss means that patience from Atlanta fans could wear thin fast as Morris begins his second season as the Falcons head coach.
The Bucs Win If…
With a new offensive coordinator in Josh Grizzard, Tampa Bay needs to start sharp out of the gate and ride the efficiency Baker Mayfield delivered in 2024, when he threw 41 TDs and posted a franchise-record 71.4% completion rate. The Bucs will be without left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receivers Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan, but Mayfield has enough weapons to work with and needs to feed the ball to Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka early to get into rhythm while leaning on the running game.
Bucs OC Josh Grizzard and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Bucky Irving burst onto the scene with 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie, and the Bucs need to establish the ground game early to keep the Falcons defense guessing and off balance. Grizzard needs to avoid putting backup Charlie Heck, who is filling in for Wirfs at left tackle, in a bind by keeping the offense on schedule and out of third-and-long situations.
Atlanta’s offensive line is in flux without right tackle Kaleb McGary and Todd Bowles needs a big game from new outside linebacker Haason Reddick to attack that weakness and generate consistent pressure on Michael Penix Jr., forcing him into uncomfortable throws and mistakes. The Bucs revamped secondary needs to continue to play tight coverage and come up with a few interceptions. Stopping the Falcons’ potent ground game, which features Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, first is a must.
The Falcons Win If…
Atlanta will turn to Michael Penix Jr., the team’s first-round pick last year, over Kirk Cousins this year. To make head coach Raheem Morris look smart, Penix must make smart, poised decisions from the jump. He showed flashes late in 2024, and must show he’s ready to face the pressure that comes from a Todd Bowles defense for the first time despite not playing in the preseason.
Falcons WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts – Photo by: USA Today
Wideout Darnell Mooney may not play in the season opener, so Penix must maximize production via Drake London underneath, using quick rhythm throws to counter any early protection breakdowns. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson must help fill-in right tackle Elijah Wilkinson, who will protecting Penix’s blindside, against Haason Reddick with chip blocks from tight ends and running backs. Penix must lean on a big day from Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier on the ground, too.
Morris had to fire good friend and defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake after the 2024 season and Jeff Ulbrich is now at the helm. Atlanta is thin at linebacker and has a pair of unproven rookie edge rushers in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. Those two first-round picks need to shine out of the gate on Sunday while Falcons defensive backs Jessie Bates III and AJ Terrell must anchor a shaky secondary that will be starting rookies Xavier Watts (safety) and Billy Bowman Jr. (nickelback).
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense
Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell
In last year’s matchup in Atlanta, Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans got the Bucs off to a quick lead with a pair of first half touchdowns. With Marshon Lattimore gone from New Orleans, Atlanta’s A.J. Terrell becomes Evans’ top nemesis at cornerback in the division. Evans has gotten the best of Terrell most years and needs to continue that trend in the 2025 season opener with a big day and at least one touchdown if the Bucs are going to finally get some revenge against a Falcons team that swept them a year ago.
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today
Evans wasn’t available for the rematch last year in Tampa Bay due to a hamstring injury, and Terrell took full advantage. His fourth quarter interception of Baker Mayfield at the 6-yard line stymied a Bucs’ scoring opportunity in the Falcons’ 31-26 win. That was Terrell’s first pick against the Bucs in 10 games over his first five seasons in the league.
Evans started the season slow from a production standpoint as Chris Godwin Jr. caught fire early on. With Godwin sidelined, Evans needs to be the one who starts the year off hot and it would come as no surprise if that happened. The 32-year old legendary receiver may have had his best training camp in his 12 years as a Buccaneer. Look for offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard to move Evans all around the field, including seeing some time in the slot, to keep Terrell and the Falcons off balance.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense
Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby vs. Falcons LT Jake Matthews
I’m so tempted to pick cornerback Zyon McCollum versus wide receiver Drake London, or outside linebacker Haason Reddick vs. third-string right tackle Elijah Wilkinson for this Week 1 matchup. But it’s time for Yaya Diaby to step up in his third season and prove that he can be a legitimate pass rushing threat against the league’s best left tackles. Jake Matthews is a very good, but no longer great pass protector at age 33 as he enters his 12th season in Atlanta. It’s time for the 26-year old Diaby, who is in his athletic prime, to put it all together and turn last year’s pressures into sacks this season.
Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and former Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today
With the Falcons likely to help Wilkinson against Reddick with double teams from tight ends and chips from running backs on obvious passing downs, Diaby will be afforded the most one-on-one opportunities of anyone along Tampa Bay’s defensive front. Diaby must show the skills to win those one-on-ones along with better developed pass rush plans that feature more counter moves than he had a year ago. With Michael Penix Jr. being a left-handed quarterback, Diaby will be rushing into Penix’s face and needs to be very disruptive and force the second-year quarterback to feel his presence all day.
Todd Bowles has put an emphasis on forcing takeaways this year, and Diaby has only forced two fumbles on his 13 career sacks. New outside linebackers coach Larry Foote has been emphasizing strip-sacks from his unit this offseason. What better time for Diaby to have a breakout game than in Week 1 against Matthews with a big strip-sack of Penix in a season-opening win.