Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s career is already one of the most precarious in the NFL due to the repeated concussions he has suffered in recent years. Against the advice of many of his peers, Tagovailoa continued playing following his most recent layoff and will lead the Dolphins into the 2025 season.
Injuries aside, though, NFL analyst Mike Florio has stated that 2025 is a pivotal year for the quarterback, suggesting that his future likely hinges on the team’s success.
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Mike Florio Believes Tua Tagovailoa’s Dolphins Future Hinges on Mike McDaniel’s
The Dolphins have finished second in the AFC East in each of Mike McDaniel’s three seasons as head coach. In 2024, though, the team suffered its first losing season under McDaniel, having relied on backup quarterbacks for much of the year.
During a recent episode of Pro Football Talk, Florio suggested that Tagovailoa needed McDaniel around in Miami, suggesting that a new head coach would look to move the quarterback on.
“You can already, kind of, feel it coming. If they finish third or fourth in the division, if they’re not in the mix for a Wild Card berth, I think there’s a very real potential that (Dolphins GM) Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel are gone.
“And what happens next year? Well, we know what owners do; they tend to hire the guy who’s the exact opposite of the last guy they had.”
Florio suggested that, if McDaniel were to be replaced in 2026, it would be for a coach who more closely resembled former head coach Brian Flores, rather than a like-for-like replacement. Flores’ hard-nosed approach to coaching is known to have negatively impacted Tagovailoa, who publicly criticized him for his approach.
“The pressure for him this year,” Florio said, “is to save Mike McDaniel, not himself. Because if he doesn’t save McDaniel, he’s next, and his ’26 experience is gonna be horrendous.”
New Dolphins Head Coach Would Look to Replace Tua, Says Florio
According to Florio, any new head coach who joined the Dolphins would immediately look to move on from Tagovailoa at quarterback. The player is under contract until 2029, but has no guaranteed money after 2026.
While the team would be stuck with that $54 million guaranteed salary for the year, Tagovailoa’s long-term future with the team would be in serious jeopardy.
“He’s gonna be there [in 2026]. Now, maybe they’ll find a way to make him go away with pay. But, man, new coach, first order of business is gonna be, ‘We need a new quarterback. Yeah, we’re stuck with Tua at $54 million this year, but he’s not my guy, and he’s gonna know he’s not my guy.’”
While a very capable quarterback when healthy, many Dolphins fans believe that the team is stuck in mediocrity with their signal-caller. Tagovailoa’s ability to get the ball out quickly has meshed perfectly with McDaniel’s offense, but Miami feels like a team in need of change.
Veteran tackle Terron Armstead retired earlier in the offseason, while the team is looking to trade star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Add that to Tyreek Hill’s outburst at the end of the 2024 season, and it might not be the worst idea for a fresh start.
How did Tagovailoa Fare in 2024?
PFSN’s QB+ rankings had Tagovailoa as the eighth best quarterbackin the NFL in 2024.
Tagovailoa missed the last two games of the season, and while the offense’s mediocre performances demonstrate his importance, they further highlight the injury concerns he carries into this offseason. Tua missed a total of six games this season, four with a concussion and two with a hip injury.
When he was on the field, Tua was largely consistent. He lacked any truly dominant performances, with a B+ performance in Week 11 against the Las Vegas Raiders being as good as it got this season. He only had two games that ranked inside the top 50 this year, and they were also the only two he had in the top 100.
.@Tua’s Week 1 @nflfantasy performance last season was one to remember 🔥
🐬 466 Passing Yards
🐬 3 TDs
🐬 27.1 Fantasy Points pic.twitter.com/l5GJpdjwwQ— NFL (@NFL) August 27, 2024
Tagovailoa only had one performance with a grade below a C. However, that came in Houston (F) in Week 15, when he needed to be at his very best. The Miami Dolphins essentially needed to be perfect to finish the season, and despite the Texans being ineffective themselves, Tua imploded.
To end the season, Tagovailoa ranked as the best quarterback in the NFL when facing pressure (-0.00) but has just a 0.27 EPA/DB from a clean pocket (15th). His clutch numbers overall have been good, but there were struggles in the last two games he played.
Tua’s EPA/DB on the season ranked fourth at 0.21, and he’s converted a 10th-best 42.9% of third downs.