A new study reveals that measles is on track to become endemic within the next 20 years, raising serious public health concerns. Experts point to declining vaccination rates as a key factor in the potential resurgence of this once-controlled disease.
A new research analysis study, published by Stanford University epidemiologists, in the Journal of the American Medical Association, warns that measles could become endemic in the United States within the next 20 years due to declining childhood vaccination rates.
The study projects that, under current immunization trends, the U.S. could experience over 850,000 measles cases, 170,000 hospitalizations, and 2,500 deaths within 25 years.
“I don’t see this as speculative. It is a modeling exercise, but it’s based on good numbers,” Jeffrey Griffiths, professor of public health and community medicine at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston, who was not involved in the study told Wired in a recent interview.
He continued, “The big point is that measles is very likely to become endemic quickly if we continue in this way.”
Per Wired, the United States declared measles eliminated in 2000 after decades of successful campaigns to vaccinate. The current measles outbreak, which started in January of 2025 in West Texas, could bring an end to the eliminated measles status.
With more than 600 cases, 64 hospitalizations, and two deaths, it’s the largest outbreak the state has seen since 1992, when 990 cases were linked to a single outbreak. Nationally, the US has seen 800 cases of measles so far in this year, the most since 2019.
“We’re really at a point where we should be trying to increase vaccination as much as possible,” Mathew Kiang, assistant professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University and one of the authors of the paper, told the outlet.
In addition to measles, the authors also used their model to assess the risk of diseases such as rubella, polio, and diphtheria making a comeback. Although, with the current levels of vaccinations for these diseases, they are unlikely, this time, to become an endemic problem, with sustained declines in immunizations across the board, that could change the outlook in the future.
“Any of these diseases, under the right conditions, could come back,” coauthor Nathan Lo, a Stanford physician and assistant professor of infectious diseases, said to Wired.
The study serves as a stark reminder of the importance of maintaining high vaccination rates to prevent measles from becoming a permanent threat. If you are concerned about your or your child’s vaccination schedules, contact and follow-up with a health care professional.