When J.D. Pickell predicted LSU as the next national champion, the backlash was immediate and harsh. Critics questioned whether Brian Kelly could deliver on college football’s biggest stage. But one statistic keeps cutting through the noise, silencing doubters one prediction at a time.
Why Is Brian Kelly’s Track Record Being Ignored by Critics?
Pickell’s controversial prediction sparked fierce debate, but his reasoning runs deeper than surface-level analysis. The On3 analyst developed a 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projecting LSU as champions, with the Tigers defeating Ohio State in the title game. His bracket reflects SEC dominance, featuring five teams compared to three from the Big Ten.
“20 years of coaching, 70% win percentage. Mic drop,” Pickell declared, highlighting the core statistic that critics conveniently ignore. This isn’t just a number. It represents two decades of consistent excellence that few coaches can match.
NEW: College Football Playoff Prediction via @jdpickell🏆
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— On3 (@On3sports) July 29, 2025
The pushback was swift and harsh. “But the number one pushback point I got for this pick was that I didn’t know who their head coach was. ‘Bro must’ve forgotten Brian Kelly’s the head coach in Baton Rouge.’ ‘That’s crazy.’ ‘Lost all credibility,’” Pickell noted, addressing the critics directly.
However, Pickell dismantled the lazy narrative with historical context. “Can’t win the big one, Brian Kelly. Check the track record, can’t do it… It’s such a lazy, tired talking point when you say a coach can’t win a big one. Like, what are you basing that off of?”
What Does History Tell Us About Championship Predictions?
The evidence carries significant weight. “You know who else they said that about? Kirby Smart. He’s got two national titles now. Jim Harbaugh won a national championship. Ryan Day last year won a national championship.” Each coach faced identical criticism before breaking through.
Kelly’s supporters point to LSU’s current advantages. “Austin Thomas, the GM for LSU, has put together the best roster Brian Kelly’s had since he’s gotten there. I talked to some folks, they think this is the best roster LSU’s had since 2019. Last time they won a natty.”
The championship reality check matters too. “It’s really freaking hard to win a national championship. One team is going to win one this year. There’s 136.” Only one team captures glory annually from college football’s vast landscape.
At SEC Media Days, LSU’s confidence was palpable. “The over under on the words ‘national championship’ that had to have hit within the first five minutes… Like it was jarring to me how openly they were talking about that.”
“You can’t until you do. And when you do, you realize can’t was never actually the right word to use to begin with,” Pickell concluded, defending his championship prediction with Kelly’s proven 70% career success rate.