Entering Week 12 of the 2025 College Football season, Louisville remained in mathematical contention for the ACC Championship. However, with their fate already out of their hands, a narrow defeat to the Clemson Tigers dealt Jeff Brohm’s team an essential knockout blow, with minimal chance of a title tilt.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Louisville’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Louisville’s ACC Championship Game Chances
After losing to Clemson on Friday night, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Louisville a 0.02% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. They have just one conference game remaining, at SMU (7-3, 5-1), and will need a unique combination of results to occur through the rest of the weekend to remain in contention.
The ACC has been complete chaos in 2025, with most of the year’s preseason favorites either eliminated outright or on the outside looking in for the conference title game.
Georgia Tech, SMU, Pittsburgh, and Virginia are the four most likely teams to be included in the ACC Championship game. Louisville’s 0.02% percentage gives them the eighth-highest chance in the conference.
Among teams in the ACC Championship hunt, Louisville has a head-to-head win against Pittsburgh — one of the four remaining ACC teams with just one conference loss — as well as two-loss Miami. However, a loss to California reduced Louisville’s chances significantly.
MORE: Louisville vs. Clemson Preview
As long as two of the five current one-loss teams retain their standing, Louisville will be out of the title game, and Louisville is already working from behind with a head-to-head loss against Virginia.
The Cardinals needed to win out in conference play to maximize their chances, and the loss to Clemson dashed that before a tough Week 13 appointment with the SMU Mustangs, who sat ahead of the Cardinals in the standings with just one league defeat.
What are Louisville’s Playoff Chances?
There is only one route into the College Football Playoff for Louisville: win the ACC Championship Game. If the Cardinals don’t make and win the title game, they won’t receive an at-large CFB Playoff berth.
PFSN College FPM currently gives Louisville a 0.01% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff. Our simulations give Louisville a 0.02% chance of playing the ACC Championship Game and a 0.01% chance of winning the ACC Championship Game.
In the CFP, four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the first round entirely. Currently, our College FPM has Louisville as a top-four seed in 0% of simulations.
A damning indication of the damage done on Friday night, our simulations also now give the Cardinals a 0% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff semifinals, College Football Playoff National Championship Game, or winning a national title.