Washington– President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday is likely to be a test of the message Republicans will send to voters in November’s elections for control of the House and Senate.
The president and his party appear to be at risk, as opinion polls show that a large portion of Americans do not trust the way Trump ran the government in his first year after returning to office. In addition, the Supreme Court last week struck down a key pillar of his economic and foreign policy when it ruled that he lacked the ability to impose many of his sweeping tariffs.
Although Trump is expected to focus on domestic issues, his increasing threats that he may launch military strikes on Iran over its nuclear program cast a shadow over the speech.
Here are some things to watch as Trump tries to make his case:
The economy and immigration are no longer Trump’s strengths
Trump returned to the White House with promises to lower prices and restore order to immigration in America. But in both cases, public sentiment turned against him.
Only 39% of US adults approve of his economic leadership, and just 38% support him on immigration, according to the latest AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs poll. These low numbers show the country is still concerned about grocery, housing and utility costs, a problem exacerbated by Trump’s excessive use of tariffs. They also show how disturbed the public is by videos showing violent clashes with protesters, including two American citizens killed by federal agents.
Since his party passed a massive tax cut bill last year, Trump has yet to unveil major new policy ideas on the economy. In his recent speeches, he has largely offered the public a reinstatement of tax cuts, plans to lower mortgage rates, and the creation of a new government website for purchasing prescription drugs.
The Supreme Court’s ruling against several of Trump’s far-reaching global tariffs on Friday and the president’s vow to use other means to push through import taxes will only prolong economic turmoil over trade and prices.
“I think focusing the speech on the economy makes it even more important,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist.
Between the tariff ruling and Friday’s Commerce Department report showing U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three months of last year, “the president needs to step up his economic message,” Conant said.
Blame everything on Joe Biden
The administration is trying to prove that despite Trump’s renewal of global trade and tax cuts, the economy is still suffering because of the choices made by his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden in 2021 and 2022. But Trump also seeks to take credit for positive signs in the current economy, such as recent gains in the stock market.
“Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to talk about the economy. We inherited chaos,” Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.
Naturally, Trump made the same kind of argument in his speech to a joint session of Congress last year, where he mentioned the name “Biden” 13 times.
Trump’s focus on foreign policy has not yet wavered at the political level
Despite the president’s “America First” mantra, his aggressive approach abroad over the past year has raised concerns among some of his supporters about whether he should spend more time focusing on voters at home.
Trump, who has made clear his desire to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, is likely to use his speech to remind Americans of his attempts to try to broker peace agreements in global conflicts.
But in many respects, the president has not extended olive branches. Last year, his administration launched strikes in Yemen, Nigeria and Iran, along with an ongoing campaign of deadly military strikes on alleged drug smuggling ships near South America. Trump also shocked the world in January with a surprise raid to arrest Venezuela’s then-leader, Nicolas Maduro, and floated the idea of using force to seize Greenland.
In recent weeks, while putting pressure on Iran, Trump has strengthened the US military presence in the Middle East. But he has yet to make a clear case to voters about what his actions abroad mean for their lives.
He may be downplaying foreign policy in his State of the Union address even though he believes it has been a great success.
“As much as his final year in office was dominated by foreign policy, this speech will focus mostly on the economy,” Conant predicted.
Vice President J.D. Vance made a similar prediction, saying in an interview Saturday on Fox News that in the speech, “You’re going to hear a lot about the importance of bringing jobs back to our country, bringing manufacturing back home, and all these great factories that are being built.”
He said Trump would also talk about reducing energy costs.
Trump made the State of the Union address his own
The State of the Union address was about summarizing achievements and seeking to unify the country, but it increasingly reflects divisions in society.
“What you expect is some version of a campaign rhetoric in which the Democrats are the villains, the Republicans he loves are the heroes, and he is the savior not only of the nation but of the entire world,” said Kathleen Hall Jamison, a professor of communications at the University of Pennsylvania.
Trump supporters may cherish the moment in 2020 when the president, midway through his speech, reunited a military family. He also awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio host and author who died in 2021 from complications of lung cancer. But that moment distracted from Democrats who saw Limbaugh as a disruptive figure in the political media.
The reaction in the room may be as important as Trump’s words
Trump delivers the speech, but his audience sitting on the House floor also plays a big role. When Trump gave his 2020 State of the Union address, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi theatrically tore up a copy of the speech afterward, overshadowing much of what Trump said.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said in a letter to his colleagues that “it is important to have a strong, determined and generous Democratic presence in the chamber,” indicating that some members may choose not to attend in protest against Trump. But there is also the possibility that Democrats will attack Trump as Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, did in 2025, leading to his removal from the chamber.
If Trump in his speech makes a more comprehensive argument for why he would use other mechanisms in federal law to pursue his tariffs, Conant said it would be interesting to see how lawmakers react.
“I think any Republican in the House who doesn’t applaud his tariffs will be featured prominently on broadcast television,” he said.
The status of unions has a short shelf life
Although some presidential phrases remain, much of the rhetoric in the State of the Union address has become forgettable. And with Trump — known for veering off script — there’s a good chance a stray comment or social media post will contradict his message.
Matt Latimer, a former Republican speechwriter for former President George W. Bush, noted in an email that people hear the president speak all the time, and so the State of the Union has lost much of its luster.
He said the State of the Union “is only relevant in moments when the country is experiencing a major shock — war, attack, or global crisis — and the president and Congress want to speak with a (mostly) unified voice to the country.” “This is not what we are seeing now.”
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