Labor Day weekend brings an extended feast of college football, with Week 1 of the 2025 season spread from Thursday to Monday night. Although there is still a final matchup of the week to consider, with most of the main contenders already showing their hands, it’s time to unveil our first college football bowl projections and College Football Playoff predictions of the season.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
- No. 11 LSU Tigers vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 7 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 9 Utah Utes vs. No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
The battle to be the Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff got off to an interesting start in Week 1. With the Boise State Broncos getting embarrassed by the South Florida Bulls, the only team from outside the “Power Four” ranked in the initial AP Poll Top 25 took a sledgehammer to their chances on the opening game of the first full slate of action.
That leaves things more wide open than most people ever thought possible. While the Navy Midshipmen remain a legitimate contender out of the American Conference, the Tulane Green Wave opened up with an impressive victory over the Northwestern Wildcats. Although it’s hardly a “resume win,” a success over a Power Four program puts the team in the pole seat.
Our college football bowl projections pit them against the Texas Longhorns, a team that lost to the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 1 but should still be considered a playoff frontrunner. Despite some difficulties for Arch Manning in the season opener, the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) still gives Steve Sarkisian’s team a 91.7% chance of winning this matchup.
Question marks around the offensive line and the capabilities of head coach Brian Kelly led to a lower-than-consensus ranking of the LSU Tigers in our preseason power rankings. However, after dispatching the Clemson Tigers in Week 1, the Bayou Bengals should be considered a legitimate playoff contender, with a 32.8% chance of reaching the 12-team postseason tournament.
If our college football bowl projections were to hold, LSU would face a road trip to the Penn State Nittany Lions, the sixth-ranked team in our Week 1 power rankings. The matchup gives fans a matchup of two highly-rated quarterbacks, Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar. Meanwhile, the two teams feature some of the best defensive pieces in the country.
FREE: Project the Entire 2025 Season With the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor
The South Carolina Gamecocks got off to a winning start in a Sunday afternoon victory over the Virginia Tech Hokies, which showcased why they were a highly ranked team in our preseason power rankings. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers is a unique dual threat who can barely be stopped, and the defense, led by Dylan Stewart, is capable of battling with the very best.
These college football bowl projections conjure up a tantalizing matchup against an Arizona State Sun Devils team that is no longer a plucky underdog. There’s a level of expectation around Kenny Dillingham’s team in 2025, and while their Week 1 clash with Northern Arizona wasn’t the toughest test they’ll face this year, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson still looks like a world beater.
The PFSN College Football Playoff Meter gives the Sun Devils a 0.5-point spread advantage. However, Arizona State’s home field advantage in this potential playoff matchup makes it closer to a field goal in their favor. Given that the Virginia Tech wide receivers were able to make several big-time plays against the Gamecocks, Tyson and quarterback Sam Leavitt could feast.
The Utah Utes already look like the most improved team in college football after Week 1. They had a relatively strong defense last year, but zero offense. Now, they have one of the best defenses in the country and one of the most electric offensive units led by transfer quarterback Devon Dampier. It’s a recipe that has College Football Playoff berth written all over it.
Our college football bowl projections see them travel to Athens to take on a Georgia Bulldogs team that has often leaned on false narratives of disrespect, but actually entered the season with actual question marks at several positions. They’ll have harder battles to face than the opener against the Marshall Thundering Herd, but looked extremely sharp, and would be a favorite here.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 7 Arizona State
- Orange Bowl: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Texas
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Georgia
Our college football bowl projections hit the quarterfinal stage with a former Pac-12 matchup between the Oregon Ducks and Arizona State. Dan Lanning’s team won the last time the teams collided, holds a 21-18 overall head-to-head record against the Sun Devils, and has a 52.8% win probability on neutral ground according to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
Clemson might have lost to LSU in Week 1, but they have all the components of a team that can dominate from here on out, and still has an 18.6% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff semifinal. An epic duel between the Tigers’ defensive line and Penn State’s double-headed monster of a running back room has the potential to be tight, but Clemson would be narrowly favored.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish suffered some teething problems in Week 1 with a close defeat to the Miami Hurricanes. It’s worth remembering they lost to the Northern Illinois Huskies a year ago and made it all the way to the championship game. This loss to a top-10 team won’t define their season, and there are enough opportunities on their schedule to earn a top-four ranking.
If defense wins championships, then the Ohio State Buckeyes showed exactly why they could double up as national champions with a dominant display in the marquee game of Week 1. Ryan Day will likely want to see better reliability out of his receivers moving forward, but the PFSN College Football Playoff meter gives the Buckeyes a 65.1% winning probability over Georgia.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Clemson
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
The first playoff semifinal of our college football bowl projections pits Oregon against Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl in a matchup that could either be a low-scoring defensive duel or a slugfest between the Ducks’ ground game and Tigers’ quarterback Klubnik. The PFSN College Football Playoff Meter makes Dabo Swinney’s team a slight underdog, with a 48.8% win probability.
The other semifinal matchup sees a rematch of the title game from nine months ago, and it would be a surprise to see anything other than a repeat of the result. In fact, our metric favors the Buckeyes by a decent margin, giving Ohio State a 63.6% win probability against the Fighting Irish. Although CJ Carr made some plays in Week 1, Julian Sayin looks the better quarterback.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Oregon
Could Oregon get revenge for its humbling in the Rose Bowl? Jeremiah Smith put up 187 yards and two scores the last time these two teams met, but the Buckeyes were also dominant in the ground game, with TreVeyon Henderson accounting for 14 points. Ohio State doesn’t have the same caliber of ground game as last year, or as Oregon, which could have some bearing here.
Still, the Ducks would be considered a 3.5-point underdog with just a 39.4% win probability, based on everything that we know about these two teams after Week 1. There are elite-tier matchups at every field level, but Ohio State has the edge in several areas, including a secondary that looks like it could have lockdown potential all year long. Back-to-back for the Buckeyes.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
Boise State vs. Arizona
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
South Alabama vs. Toledo
Cure Bowl
Georgia Southern vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Ohio vs. Old Dominion
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Florida International vs. Appalachian State
Gasparilla Bowl
Rice vs. North Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Utah State vs. Central Michigan
Boca Raton Bowl
UTSA vs. San Jose State
New Orleans Bowl
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
Texas State vs. Western Michigan
Hawaii Bowl
Hawai’i vs. Louisiana Tech
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Miami (OH) vs. Maryland
Rate Bowl
Baylor vs. Minnesota
First Responder Bowl
UConn vs. Pittsburgh
Military Bowl
Boston College vs. North Texas
Pinstripe Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Nebraska
Fenway Bowl
Duke vs. Navy
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. Kansas State
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
UNLV vs. Bowling Green
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Jacksonville State
Gator Bowl
Florida State vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl
BYU vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham Bowl
Memphis vs. Florida
Independence Bowl
Kansas vs. Colorado
Music City Bowl
Michigan vs. Auburn
Alamo Bowl
Iowa State vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl
Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Sun Bowl
Virginia vs. Washington State
Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs. Tennessee
Las Vegas Bowl
California vs. Iowa
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. UCF
Liberty Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Louisville vs. Alabama
Holiday Bowl
SMU vs. Washington
Bahamas Bowl
Liberty vs. Buffalo