The Houston Texans enter Week 15 riding a five-game winning streak, surging back into the playoff hunt after a shaky start to the season. Now just one game behind the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, and backed by a favorable remaining schedule, Houston’s postseason outlook is brighter than ever.
What Are The Texans’ Playoff Chances?
Starting the season 0-3, including a loss against the Jaguars, it seemed like the lack of a competent offensive line was finally going to catch up to Houston.
As they tried to battle their way back to 3-5, any hopes seemed vanquished when C.J. Stroud went down with an injury that ultimately kept him out for three weeks. But thanks to the No. 1 defense in the league (according to PFSN’s Defense Impact metric) and the solid play of Davis Mills, the Texans were able to go on a four-game winning streak.
Now, after a massive Sunday Night Football victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Texans have won five straight and are in a terrific position to make the playoffs. According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, Houston has a 33% chance of winning the division and an 85.5% chance of making the playoffs.
The Texans are now hosting the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15, and with the Cardinals struggling, it shouldn’t be hard for them to find a win.
How Week 15 Could Change the Chargers’ Playoff Odds
Here’s how Houston’s chances shift depending on Week 15 outcomes:
If Houston wins, Indianapolis wins (vs. Seahawks), and Jacksonville wins (vs. Jets:
- Playoff chances: 86.2%
- Division chances: 35.7%
If Houston wins, Indianapolis wins, and Jacksonville loses:
- Playoff chances: 88%
- Division chances: 44.3%
If Houston wins, Indianapolis loses, and Jacksonville loses:
- Playoff chances: 93.8%
- Division chances: 48.5%
If Houston wins, Indianapolis loses, and Jacksonville wins:
- Playoff chances: 93.6%
- Division chances: 39.2%
If Houston loses, Indianapolis loses, and Jacksonville loses:
- Playoff chances: 79.6%
- Division chances: 28.2%
If Houston loses, Indianapolis loses, and Jacksonville wins:
- Playoff chances: 78.4%
- Division chances: 13.2%
If Houston loses, Indianapolis wins, and Jacksonville loses:
- Playoff chances: 68.9%
- Division chances: 22.1%
If Houston loses, Indianapolis wins, and Jacksonville wins:
- Playoff chances: 65.5%
- Division chances: 11%
Following the Chiefs’ matchup, they will host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16, another game they should comfortably win, and try to catch up with the Jaguars. They will travel to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17 before concluding the season at home against the Indianapolis Colts.
While the Colts, who are level with the Texans at 8-5, are not much of a threat after losing Daniel Jones to a season-ending injury, the Jaguars are on a four-game winning streak and playing some inspiring football as well.
The path won’t be easy, but Houston remains firmly in control of its destiny. With consistency and sharper execution down the stretch, the Texans have every opportunity to punch their ticket to the postseason.