Fantasy football managers face tough decisions every week when setting their lineups. Some players who seem like obvious starts can burn you, while others you might overlook could deliver precisely what your team needs.
This week presents several intriguing situations where recent performance trends might not tell the whole story. Smart lineup decisions often come down to understanding matchups and game flow rather than just looking at past results.
Start ‘Em: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
It’s been a wild start to the season for Courtland Sutton. He’s been a high-end WR1 in four games and basically the worst possible player in the other two.
Last week was one of the bad ones. Sutton caught one pass for 17 yards. That was it.
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Fortunately, things should be more favorable this week. The New York Giants have been playing better overall, but they are still allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Sutton is the clear WR1 for the Denver Broncos, and the Giants should push this offense a bit more than the Jets did. Expect a bigger game from Sutton this week.
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams
Davante Adams first broke out in 2016. He averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game. That marks his lowest PPG average since then…until now.
At 32 years old, Adams still looks like he has juice left, but he’s clearly not the player he once was. The future Hall of Famer is currently averaging 13.9 PPG. It’s a respectable number, but not on the level we’ve come to expect from Adams. If there were ever a week to get a vintage Packers Adams performance, though, it’s this one.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a pass funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Adding to Adams’ prospects is the high likelihood that Puka Nacua will miss this week’s game due to a sprained ankle.
This is a game where the Los Angeles Rams should rely more on the pass, as it is the best way to move the ball against the Jaguars. Matthew Stafford always locks in on his WR1. For at least one week, that is likely to be Adams.
Sit ‘Em: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
This analysis applies to A.J. Brown as well, but despite his struggles, he is more trustworthy than his counterpart. DeVonta Smith has been incredibly disappointing thus far. He’s averaging a career-low 11.1 fantasy points per game.
Jalen Hurts is only targeting Smith on 18.5% of his routes run. That is, by far, a career low. As a result, Smith has been heavily dependent on game flow and splash plays. He has two games with 19.4 and 20 points. Everything else has been single digits.
There will be spike weeks. But one of them likely is not coming against this team. The Minnesota Vikings are well-rested coming off their bye and allow the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers by an extensive margin. Smith is staring down the barrel of another dismal outing.
Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks
That’s now back-to-back games of double-digit fantasy points for Cooper Kupp. Obviously, he’s nowhere near the player he was at his peak. But fantasy managers were still drafting him as a borderline starter.
Last week, Kupp found the end zone for the first time all season. Touchdowns tend to skew perception. This could lead fantasy managers to believe the veteran receiver is trustworthy going forward.
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Kupp is still a distant second fiddle to elite WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His target share is a respectable 20.8%, but his 5.4 aDOT relegates him to essentially being a PPR scam without the volume.
This week, Kupp gets a Houston Texans defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Seattle Seahawks can’t run the ball, so there still may be a decent floor. But Kupp will likely have to find the end zone to provide a returnable value.