We are down to one game to determine who advances to the Western Conference Finals. Our Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction takes into account everything we’ve seen through six games in an effort to put you in position to profit for the finale.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
- Spread
Thunder -7 - Moneyline
Thunder -278, Nuggets +225 - Over/Under
212 - Location
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (Paycom Center) - How to Watch
ABC (3:30p ET)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Series Recap
Denver was able to recover from consecutive losses to handle Oklahoma City on Thursday night. Nikola Jokić (29 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists, and one turnover in 40 minutes) did what you’d expect him to, and Jamal Murray played well through an illness (+28 in his 42 minutes). But if the Nuggets go on to win this series, it’s entirely possible that, moving forward, May 15 is labeled as Julian Strawther Day.
The second-year guard out of Gonzaga had 14 points through the first five games of this series, but he exploded for 15 timely points on Thursday. The production is obviously phenomenal, but I’m not sure that the raw counting numbers are as needed as simply the ability to buy the heavy lifters for Denver some time to gather themselves.
In Game 6, Jokić was able to rest during the first portion of the fourth quarter because the Nuggets were able to tread water with Strawther on the court. When he came back — five points and two assists in a quick three-minute window that all but broke the soul of the road team.
Not to be outdone, Christian Braun made eight of 14 shots (he had seven made field goals in 87 minutes across games 4-5), pulled down 11 rebounds, and added three steals.
On the other side, the Thunder seem to have a Jalen Williams problem. The explosive shooting guard has failed to shoot even 36% from the field in four games during this series and has missed 33 of 43 shots over the past three games.
Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were efficient (51 points on 19-of-30 shooting), but OKC won just one quarter and was outplayed for the majority of a game that could have sent them to the West Finals.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction
In this business, we are tasked with determining what is most likely to happen. In Game 6, an elimination game on the road, the Thunder saw their free-throw rate tank by 40.4% while posting their 10th-worst 3P% game and second-worst FT% of the entire season.
What is this chart, you ask? It’s pretty simple. I kept all attempt rates the same for every Thunder game this season and compared FTM and 3PM for both them and their opponent.
I charted their difference in actual data in terms of points scored in those two ways for those games and lined it up against what would have been the case if both parties (OKC and their opponent) finished the game with the rates that the average Thunder game has assumed this season.
I’ll use Game 6 as an example. Denver outscored Oklahoma City by 20 points by way of FTM and 3PM. Had the Nuggets converted at the rate from both areas that the average Thunder opponent has all season long and OKC lived up to its offensive conversion rates, Denver would have held a 0.6-point advantage in those areas. Thus, they overachieved basic expectations for their volume by 19.4 points.
Is it something Denver is doing (their games are highlighted)? Is it a young team getting tight? Those are factors, but I’m of the mind, and always will be, that variance like this smooths out over time, and two things should not be overlooked. The majority of those games came on the road, and three of them were still Oklahoma City victories.
That’s an awfully detailed way of me saying that Game 6 counts, but the way in which the result occurred doesn’t appear to be the most predictive. Despite the poor run out on variance, a 10-0 run that took 92 seconds and featured eight points from a player who had 15 points all postseason prior was essentially the difference in this game.
Does the best team in the NBA trend closer to its norm? A norm that had, prior to the weird result on Thursday, 91 games of data supporting it?
At the end of the day, I think the sportsbooks have this one capped well. I believe SGA will be named the MVP of this league, and in doing so, he is tasked with breaking an odd recent trend — the future MVP of the league has lost eight straight elimination games (when fully healthy), a streak that dates back to 2016 Stephen Curry.
Outside of the weird Game 2, Denver has scored 545 points and Oklahoma City 534. That’s a tick under 216 points per game, and the average margin of victory in those contests has been exactly seven points.
See where the line came from?
Thursday night was played with 6.9% more pace than the three games prior, leading me to believe that we regress a bit in the possession department and, thus, go under the projected total.
Barely.
Prediction: Thunder 110, Nuggets 104
Thunder vs. Nuggets Props
During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander saw 87.7% of his 3PA come when left open (at least four feet of separation from the nearest defender), and he shot 38% on those looks (28.6% when defended closely on an attempted triple). In this series, however, he’s been left unattended on just 65.1% of his 3PA (35.7% on those attempts and 13.3% otherwise.
What’s that mean?
It means that Denver is, as expected, prioritizing him as a scorer and making it a point to keep in touch with him. Not exactly a revolutionary game plan, but they are doing it well. And as good as SGA is, I’m okay with stepping in front of him being a 46.5% 3-point shooter, the rate of conversion it would take for him to burn this ticket (under 1.5 3PM, +134) if we assume the 4.3 attempts that he’s averaged from distance this series sticks.
Yep, I lost this bet on Thursday because he splashed two of four attempts, both of which came when the Nuggets lost him a little bit in a secondary break situation. Gilgeous-Alexander made them pay for the two mistakes they made, and that has the chance to happen when we are dealing with a great talent.
But if you’re telling me I get plus-money in an elimination game where not only the attention to detail on the defensive end will be ramped up, but we get a situation where Gilgeous-Alexander is in true attack mode (26 free throw attempts against four made three points in three home games during this series) and what I project to be a more favorable game script.
OKC isn’t at their best when Gilgeous-Alexander is settling, so while a negative Thunder prop feels uncomfortable with my projection for them to win, I don’t think it’s spitting into the wind.
As for how this team gets on the board, I think it’s finally time to pounce. Jalen Williams has been stuck in a brutal slump, and missing 13 of 16 shots in Game 6 certainly wasn’t an encouraging performance.
That said, the shot diet nerd in me still sees a positive profile, and returning home — a place where he shot over 50% from the field during the regular season — can only help.
In this series, Williams is shooting 44.4% from inside of five feet and 30.8% on those mid-range pullups from 10-14 feet. Those are awful rates (63.5% and 50.3%, respectively, during the regular season), but instead of being intimidated by low conversion rates, I’m mildly encouraged by the fact that he’s still getting where he wants to go.
During these games, he’s seen 42.4% of his shots come in one of those two buckets, not much different than the 44.4% rate he posted during the regular season.
We’ve seen Williams flash some playmaking abilities to offset his shooting woes of late (19 assists against four turnovers in Games 4-6), and that’s kept him not only on the floor but involved. His creation, if you label it as sticky, adds a base to his points-plus-assists projection that I’m comfortable with, understanding that he’s plenty capable of knocking down the shots he’s getting (and he still is firing; 15.8 attempts per game in this series).
I like Williams to clear his season average in terms of points-plus-assists (26.7) in this game. And we only need 25 to cash this ticket thanks to a betting market that is, at least a little bit, buying into the recent struggles more than I am.
Predictions:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 1.5 3PM
Jalen Williams over 24.5 points-plus-assists