Although the long-term future of the College Football Playoff format is uncertain, one team from outside the Power Four conferences will be guaranteed a spot in this year’s postseason tournament. The Boise State Broncos emerged as the dominant force last fall, but which Group of Five program will emerge as a legitimate contender for the final 12 elite college football teams?
10) San Jose State Spartans
After his relatively late appointment in the 2024 hiring cycle, Ken Niumatalolo did a stellar job taking the San Jose State Spartans to a 7-5 overall record and bowl game appearance. The former Navy Midshipmen head coach ditched years of triple-option principles as his team unleashed an aerial assault on the Mountain West, led by All-American wide receiver Nick Nash.
Nash is gone, a legitimate problem for an offense ranked 36th among Group of Five teams by PFSN College Offense+ grade (70.33, C-) a year ago. However, the Spartans return leading running back Floyd Chalk IV, a top-100 running back in the country by PFSN College RB+ (74.55, C), and starting quarterback Walker Eget in two crucial roster moves.
Eget is particularly important to San Jose State’s chances of reaching the College Football Playoff. In 2024, he shared starting reps with Emmett Brown, but his development throughout the season should give Spartans’ fans some cause for optimism. He also led the conference in yards per completion (13.3) last fall and has a trio of portal receivers at his disposal.
Yet, it’s what doesn’t return for the Spartans in 2025 that aids their chances of a trip to the Mountain West Championship Game and subsequent pursuit of a College Football Playoff spot. San Jose State lost to both Boise State and the UNLV Rebels last season, and neither of those teams is on the 2025 schedule, one that ranks 86th overall by PFSN’s Strength of Schedule.
9) Liberty Flames
After going undefeated through the 2023 college football season and securing a New Year’s Six bowl spot, many expected the Liberty Flames to be the Group of Five contender for the College Football Playoff a year ago. However, Jamey Chadwell’s team suffered something of a slump, sliding to an 8-4 overall record with three CUSA losses. Don’t expect the same to happen again.
Chadwell is one of college football’s great innovators and was recently ranked as the 58th-best head coach in the sport by PFSN’s Joe Broback. Last season’s capitulation isn’t in keeping with his track record of success, and some of the attitudes of certain players around the program weren’t in keeping with the culture that he has set at all stops in his coaching journey.
The Flames are currently favored to win the CUSA title in 2025 by DraftKings Sportsbook. Optimism of a rebound has multiple foundations. Chadwell plays a huge role in that, but there is also a lot of uncertainty at other programs in the conference. Furthermore, like they did in 2023, Liberty has one of the easiest strengths of schedule in the country, while their roster includes some important returning playmakers on defense.
While sailing through an easy schedule to a conference title and potential undefeated record could play in the Flames’ favor, it does come with a downside for their College Football Playoff potential. There is no Power Four opponent to bolster their resume, meaning that Liberty’s best win (if they do emerge victorious) would be against the James Madison Dukes.
8) Ohio Bobcats
Tim Albin made the Ohio Bobcats a consistent contender in the Mid-American Conference, and his departure to the Charlotte 49ers is significant in understanding the program’s projection for the 2025 season. They’re not even currently the favored team by oddsmakers to win the MAC. However, there are legitimate reasons to consider them a College Football Playoff possibility.
Ohio had the 11th-highest graded Group of Five offense by PFSN College Offense+ last year (76.27, C), and the architect of that success, Parker Navarro, returns to the program in a display of loyalty that rarely remains in the modern era of college football.
The Ohio dual-threat earned the second-highest PFSN College QB+ grade (80.2, B-) among passers returning to the Group of Five in 2025.
Although there are some changes around Navarro, there is a return of a familiar face to help bolster the offense. Sieh Bangura tallied 1,982 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns for the Bobcats between 2021 and 2023, and after a year in Minnesota, he’s back in Athens.
The fifth-ranked Group of Five defense from 2024 (79.02, C+) had to retool this offseason, but that’s an annual story for the program, and players like Tank Pearson ensure some consistency.
The biggest stumbling block for the Bobcats is their strength of schedule, which at 71st in the country, is one of the toughest among Group of Five teams. Yet, from adversity comes opportunity. They have three chances (Rutgers Scarlet Knights, West Virginia Mountaineers, and Ohio State Buckeyes) to upset the applecart, which would be a significant resume boost.
7) UNLV Rebels
Once the whipping boy of the Mountain West Conference, the UNLV Rebels were two Boise State encounters away from representing the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff a year ago. With the departure of head coach Barry Odom (Purdue) and swathes of their most talented players heading to the NFL or hitting the transfer portal, they could be a regression candidate.
Yet, this isn’t your grandpa’s Rebels.
There’s a standard in Las Vegas now. This program has tasted success and won’t settle for less. Their involvement as a high-profile cog in the most recent round of college football realignment shows their value, and their location, creative NIL deployment, and use of top-tier NFL facilities provides an alluring proposition for players and coaches.
Enter Dan Mullen. The former Mississippi State Bulldogs and Florida Gators head coach has been lured from the broadcast booth and back to the sideline, replacing Odom in a statement of intent for UNLV.
His reputation has allowed the Rebels to reshape the roster with Power Four personnel, with a summer quarterback battle between Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orgi (Michigan) a testament to that recruiting sway. As many as 17 starters will have come from the portal this offseason, with running back Jai’Den Thomas a notable returning part of an exciting offense.
It remains to be seen how quickly the rosters gel together to replace the 12th-ranked Group of Five offense (75.56, C) and seventh-ranked defense (78.03, C+), but there’s a light schedule to help facilitate a title-contending campaign. Boise State looms on the schedule, but wins on the “Smurf Turf” and against the UCLA Bruins would be serious College Football Playoff currency.
6) Texas State Bobcats
Currently one of the hottest topics of conversation following the announcement of their departure for the Pac-12 from the 2026 college football season, the Texas State Bobcats could leave the Sun Belt as the conference champions, enabling them a shot at the College Football Playoff. That would be a major boon for their new conference, and bittersweet for the one they leave behind.
But how realistic is a Texas State assault on the College Football Playoff this season? After all, they lost the highest-graded true Group of Five quarterback from the 2024 season (we’re not including the Washington State Cougars here), with Jordan McCloud (82.5, B-) exhausting his eligibility. The Bobcats also lost do-it-all running back Ismail Mahdi for the 2025 season.
Under G.J. Kinne, the Bobcats have learned to defy expectations. New players will replace the old for a team that finished in the top 15 among Group of Five programs in PFSN Offense+ (76.69, C), Defense+ (76.48, C), and OL+ (75.64, C) last fall. There is a lot of returning talent on the team, including standout guard Tellek Lockette, while several transfers will make an impact.
If the Bobcats are to reach the College Football Playoff, they will have to do it the hard way, too, with few “easy wins” on their schedule and clashes with two of the top Sun Belt teams (James Madison and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns). A road trip to Tempe to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils is a resume game to circle after playing the Big 12 champions close last fall.
5) Memphis Tigers
After a period of three years away from the AP Poll Top 25 and four years removed from their last College Football Playoff Ranking, the Memphis Tigers roared back into conference contention and postseason conversation last fall. Ryan Silverfield’s team put together an 11-2 campaign, with six AAC wins, that saw them end the year inside both sets of rankings.
With the SMU Mustangs bolting to the ACC, that was the expectation of the program all along. The Tigers should be challenging atop the American Athletic Conference, and the late-season win over the Tulane Green Wave was evidence that they should be in the hunt for a title in a conference that refers to itself as the “Power 6” each and every year.
The 2025 AAC schedule puts Memphis in a good spot. The program has the 124th overall strength of schedule, offering the potential for another double-digit win season and even an undefeated conference campaign if they can beat the Navy Midshipmen. They also have a beatable Power Four program on tap (the Arkansas Razorbacks) to bolster their resume.
However, there is significant roster turnover to overcome before crowning the Tigers the kings of the AAC. Seth Henigan has been the face of this offense seemingly forever, and while Brendon Lewis offers some intrigue, the Memphis quarterback situation is simply not as good this year, and the third-ranked Group of Five offensive line from 2024 (80.58, B-) is also much changed.
4) James Madison Dukes
From the minute that the James Madison Dukes entered the FBS level in 2022, they have proven that translating FCS success into top-tier wins is an easily achievable goal. Curt Cignetti placed the program into the AP Poll Top 25 in successive seasons, and while Bob Chesney didn’t meet that standard in 2024, a 9-4 overall record in his first year in charge was nothing to be sniffed at.
Digging beneath wins, losses, and box scores, the Dukes’ strengths were the same in 2024 as they’ve always been. Defense has been the key to their early FBS success, and the unit received an 80.95 (B-) PFSN Defense+ grade that ranked third among Group of Five teams. Despite losing some pieces, the offensive line earned the sixth-best OL+ grade (77.32, C+).
There is some similar roster turnover to navigate this fall, with Cam McNair (Holy Cross) and Zach Greenberg (North Carolina) transferring in to shore up the offensive front. Although the loss of players like Eric O’Neill and Terrence Spence hurts the defense, key cogs like Immanuel Bush and DJ Barksdale return.
Following a season where they put up 70 points on the North Carolina Tar Heels and 30+ points in six games, it might sound ludicrous to say that offense will be key to James Madison making the leap to Sun Belt and College Football Playoff contender this fall. They had four outings with 20 points or less, seriously hampering their efforts.
Chesney added several quarterbacks to the roster to compete for the starting job, including a reunion with Matthew Sluka. Getting that decision right will be key to improving a unit that ranked 100th in the nation (70.36, C-) a year ago. However, they also return one of the top running backs in the Group of Five, George Pettaway, who earned a 78.79 (C+) grade for his efforts in 2024.
A road game against Texas State is the Dukes’ most significant challenge in the Sun Belt. Meanwhile, they face Liberty and the Louisville Cardinals in out-of-conference play. A strong showing against the ACC outfit and a win over a team expected to win their conference would do wonders for the program’s resume.
3) Tulane Green Wave
Just six weeks out from the 2025 college football season, the Tulane Green Wave are the current oddsmakers’ favorite to win the AAC and sit behind Boise State in current odds among Group of Five teams to reach the College Football Playoff. Under Willie Fritz, they became a giant-killer, and in Year 1 under Jon Sumrall, they showcased why the program can be a consistent threat.
As a team at the forefront of Group of Five football, the Tulane roster — and its star talent — is consistently in the eyes of Power Four programs. They’ve been able to weather significant departures before, and they’ll need to do the same in the 2025 season with quarterback Darian Mensah departing for Duke and running back Makhi Hughes on his way to Oregon.
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There is also the exhausted eligibility of dominant interior defensive line duo Adin Huntington and Patrick Jenkins to contend with. Still, Sumrall picked up some impactful defensive transfers to patch up a defense that ranked second among Group of Five teams a year ago (81.51, B-). Meanwhile, a rebuilt line contains talent to protect Ball State transfer Kadin Semonza.
Although Tulane travels to Memphis and UTSA, there’s no reason they can’t run the table in the AAC this fall. A road win against a strong Tigers team would be a resume booster. Additionally, they have three shots at getting a Power Four win under their belt, starting with a home game against the Northwestern Wildcats. The opportunities to impress the committee are plentiful.
2) Boise State Broncos
If you’re ruling out Boise State in the race to the College Football Playoff in 2025 based solely on Ashton Jeanty’s departure to the NFL with the Las Vegas Raiders, I have a story to tell you.
While Jeanty was a juggernaut of epic proportions who put together the highest-graded season ever by a Group of Five running back in our RB+ database (96.86, A), there is more to this team than one man, and you better believe that the Broncos will be highly motivated to prove just that this fall.
Jeanty was adept at creating for himself during his college football career, but his success was gently nudged in the right direction by an offensive line that received the second-highest grade in the Group of Five in 2024 (82.97, B-) while finishing as a top-30 unit in the country. Key components of that line return in 2025, providing a foundational base for offensive success.
Sometimes lost in the shuffle of Jeanty’s greatness is the fact that quarterback Maddux Madsen led the Mountain West in passing yards (3,018) and passing touchdowns (23), and the Broncos’ star is the highest-graded passer (82.1, B-) returning to the Group of Five this year. Led by Matt Lauter, he has a stellar supporting cast, with Sire Gaines set to be the next great back.
There are slightly more questions around the defense, with significant departures, but with Ty Benefield and A’Marion McCoy marshalling the secondary, and Dion Washington arriving from Hawaii to shore up the defensive front, there is no reason to believe that the Broncos are just going to capitulate this fall.
In the Mountain West, they avoid a long journey to a Hawaii Rainbow Warriors team who should be pretty handy this fall, and hosting the UNLV Rebels and Fresno State Bulldogs is about as good as it gets for Spencer Danielson’s team. After playing Oregon close to boost their 2024 resume, a date with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend is their top-tier ticket.
1) Navy Midshipmen
The 2024 Navy Midshipmen spent two weeks inside the AP Poll Top 25, the first team from the service academy to trouble the national polls since 2019. That unit ultimately ended the season inside the College Football Playoff rankings (23rd), and that is the goal for Brian Newberry’s team in the 2025 college football season. However, that isn’t where the aspirations should end.
Between Newberry, defensive coordinator P.J. Volker, and offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, this is a Navy team unlike ones we’ve seen before, and they’re legit. Losses to Notre Dame, Rice, and Tulane derailed their 2024 campaign, but with a bowl win over the Oklahoma Sooners, the Midshipmen showed that they can hang with any team, at any level, any time.
Last season’s success starts with a quarterback who wowed the nation. A genuine dual-threat who can operate a traditional option offense with the best of them, but with the legitimate passing capability to run Cronic’s innovative scheme, Blake Horvath led all returning college QBs with 1,246 rushing yards as Navy put together a top 10 Group of Five offense (76.27, C).
Horvath is rejoined by key pieces of that unit. Alex Tecza, Brandon Chatman, and Eli Heidereich form a triple-headed monster out of the backfield, while Nathan Kent is an exciting receiving outlet. The projected starting offensive line features three seniors and is anchored again by Ben Purvis.
Although a nasty defense that held eight teams to 20 points or less a year ago lost multiple playmakers at all levels, notably Rayuan Lane’s NFL Draft selection and Colin Ramos’ departure, they bring back the defensive line lynchpin of Landon Robinson, a freak athlete on the interior who is conformably one of the best at the Group of Five level.
Navy has one of the easier AAC schedules, avoiding Tulane and a UTSA side that is expected to be strong. So, there’s potential for them to run the table, if they can beat Memphis for the second successive season. Meanwhile, the Notre Dame game looms as their ultimate resume test. Avoid getting blown out, win the AAC, and the College Football Playoff beckons for the Midshipmen.