Baker Mayfield’s breakout 2024 campaign has fantasy managers split down the middle when it comes to expectations for his 2025 season. Last year, he delivered his best professional season, but PFSN Fantasy Trade Analyzer data reveals a surprising trend: he’s being moved off rosters in 53.1% of trades despite his stellar performance.
The reason? Smart managers recognize that betting on peak performance rarely pays dividends.
The Liam Coen Effect and Its Disappearing Act
Mayfield’s transformation under offensive coordinator Liam Coen was nothing short of remarkable. The Tampa Bay quarterback completed 71.4% of his passes in 2024, a dramatic leap from his career average of 61.9%. His yards per attempt jumped from 7.2 to 7.9, while his touchdown rate nearly doubled from 4.6% to 7.2%.
These aren’t minor improvements – they represent a fundamental shift in efficiency and production that elevated Mayfield from fringe starter to legitimate QB1 territory. In PFSN’s QB+ modeling, Mayfield finished as QB6.
However, Coen’s departure to Jacksonville creates a massive question mark for 2025. Offensive coordinators don’t typically produce such dramatic statistical improvements by accident. Coen’s system clearly maximized Mayfield’s strengths while minimizing his decision-making weaknesses. The quarterback thrived in quick-hitting concepts and intermediate routes that played to his arm strength and mobility.
Without that system and the architect who designed it, Mayfield faces the challenge of adapting to a new offensive philosophy under Josh Grizzard, the Bucs’ passing game coordinator in 2024.
Historical data shows that quarterbacks rarely maintain career-high efficiency metrics when their offensive coordinator departs, especially players with Mayfield’s inconsistent track record.
“That throw by Baker Mayfield was ridiculous.” 👏@TomBrady gives Baker praise after that incredible TD pass!! pic.twitter.com/JsJ5pI75SF
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 5, 2025
The Peak vs. Mean Dilemma
Fantasy managers face a critical decision: draft Mayfield at his current QB7 ADP based on 2024 production, or fade him due to regression concerns. PFSN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer suggests experienced managers lean toward the latter, viewing his current draft position as overvalued relative to his likely 2025 performance.
Mayfield’s career trajectory supports this skepticism.
Before 2024, he had never completed more than 64% of his passes in a single season. His previous career-high touchdown rate was 5.6% in 2018 with Cleveland. The 2024 season represents such a significant outlier that projecting similar production forward requires considerable optimism about his ability to maintain peak performance without the same supporting structure.
The numbers paint a clear picture: Mayfield’s 2024 season was 9.5 percentage points higher in completion percentage than his career norm, with a touchdown rate that was 2.6 percentage points above his historical average. These improvements aren’t incremental growth – they’re transformational changes that rarely sustain without the same environmental factors.
Proponents of another strong season from Mayfield point to arguably the NFL’s most talented supporting cast, featuring proven stars like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin alongside breakout rookie Bucky Irving and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, who add explosiveness and depth.
With so many dynamic pass-catchers and a strong run game, defenses can’t focus on any one option, giving Mayfield favorable matchups and reliable outlets every week. While scheme changes introduce some uncertainty, the sheer firepower around Mayfield could give him a chance to repeat or build his 2024 breakout.
Making the Right Call
This offensive depth, combined with Mayfield’s own resurgence, paints an appealing picture for those considering him in 2025—but there’s more to the story for savvy fantasy managers.
While casual observers see a quarterback coming off his best season, experienced fantasy managers recognize the warning signs of unsustainable production paired with significant environmental changes.
The lesson extends beyond Mayfield to a broader draft strategy principle: peak performance often represents the worst time to buy, especially when that peak coincides with significant changes to the supporting system. Fantasy championships are built on identifying sustainable production, not chasing last year’s outliers.
Mayfield’s 2024 season was genuinely impressive and proved he could excel in the right situation. Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, that situation no longer exists, and history suggests the magic rarely strikes twice for journeyman quarterbacks entering their thirties.