We are heading into the final week of the 2025-26 NFL regular season, and most of this year’s playoff berths have already been clinched. Still, there are a couple of spots up for grabs, and teams are fighting to position themselves for the best possible seeding in the bracket.
Before Week 18 kicks off, let’s take a look ahead at how likely each team is to land a certain seed in the NFL playoffs, as well as potential opponents.
AFC Playoff Seeding Scenarios and Potential Matchups
Entering Week 18, the Denver Broncos own the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. They are tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the conference at 13-3. However, Denver owns the tiebreaker over New England based on the best win percentage in common games.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Broncos currently have a 63.3% chance of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Patriots have a 25.8% chance.
Week 18 Win Probabilities
Here are PFSN Analytics’ probabilities of every playoff contender winning in Week 18.
Note: The probabilities for the Broncos-Chargers game have significantly changed, as we have attempted to project the impact of Los Angeles resting its starters.
Projected AFC Playoff Seeding
If our favorites in the above matchups win each matchup, here would be the projected AFC seeding:
1) Denver Broncos (Probability: 82.9%)
2) New England Patriots (Probability: 62.3%)
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (Probability: 50.0%)
4) Pittsburgh Steelers (Probability: 53.4%)
5) Houston Texans (Probability: 57.0%)
6) Buffalo Bills (Probability: 35.1%)
7) Los Angeles Chargers (Probability: 60.9%)
Note that whichever team wins the Ravens-Steelers matchup on Sunday night will clinch the AFC North title and be the No. 4 seed in the conference.
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Potential AFC Playoff Matchups
These are the most likely AFC Wild Card playoff matchups, according to our analytics:
- Chargers at Patriots: 53.7%
- Bills at Jaguars: 33.6%
- Texans at Steelers: 30.4%
- Chargers at Jaguars: 27.7%
- Bills at Patriots: 27.0%
- Texans at Ravens: 26.6%
- Texans at Jaguars: 18.8%
- Bills at Steelers: 16.3%
- Bills at Ravens: 14.2%
- Jaguars at Texans: 9.3%
- Bills at Broncos: 6.7%
- Texans at Patriots: 6.2%
- Chargers at Broncos: 6.2%
- Chargers at Texans: 3.9%
- Chargers at Steelers: 3.5%
Several of the most likely playoff matchups have already happened this season. The Bills-Ravens game in Week 1 was absolute cinema, with Buffalo pulling off a comeback to win 41-40. These two teams have history, as the Bills knocked Baltimore out of the playoffs a season ago.
The Bills and Patriots split their regular-season series this season, as have the Jaguars and Texans. That familiarity could make for interesting chess matches in the postseason. Meanwhile, Jacksonville notched a blowout 35-6 win over the Chargers in Week 11.
NFC Playoff Seeding Scenarios and Potential Matchups
Entering Week 18, the 13-3 Seattle Seahawks own the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff bracket. Seattle will face the 12-4 San Francisco 49ers for the NFC West crown and the No. 1 seed in the conference.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Seahawks currently have a 53.5% chance of securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed, while the 49ers have a 46.5% chance.
Week 18 Win Probabilities
Here are PFSN Analytics’ probabilities of every playoff contender winning in Week 18.
Projected NFC Playoff Seeding
If our favorites in the above matchups win each matchup, here would be the projected NFC seeding:
1) Seattle Seahawks (Probability: 54.4%)
2) Chicago Bears (Probability: 67.0%)
3) Philadelphia Eagles (Probability: 67.0%)
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Probability: 21.9%)
5) Los Angeles Rams (Probability: 42.2%)
6) San Francisco 49ers (Probability: 42.2%)
7) Green Bay Packers (Probability: 100%)
Note that whichever team wins the NFC South race between the Buccaneers and Panthers will be the No. 4 seed in the conference.
Potential NFC Playoff Matchups
These are the most likely NFC Wild Card playoff matchups, according to our analytics:
- Packers at Bears: 67.0%
- Rams at Eagles: 38.7%
- Seahawks at Panthers: 35.6%
- Packers at Eagles: 33.0%
- Rams at Panthers: 33.0%
- 49ers at Eagles: 28.3%
- Rams at Bears: 19.1%
- 49ers at Bears: 14.0%
- Seahawks at Buccaneers: 10.0%
- 49ers at Panthers: 9.5%
- Rams at Buccaneers: 9.2%
- 49ers at Buccaneers: 2.7%
There are some highly anticipated potential matchups here. The Packers split their regular-season series with the Bears, with their loss coming in overtime in Week 16. Chicago has won the NFC North for the first time since 2018, reigniting the storied rivalry, which Green Bay has dominated recently.
The defending champion Eagles have picked up one-possession victories over both the Packers and Rams this season, so either rematch could be fun to watch. Elsewhere, the Panthers shocked Los Angeles 31-28 in Week 13, which hurt the Rams’ chances of winning the NFC West. Surely, Sean McVay’s squad would love to exact revenge when it matters most.