Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (vs MIN)

Aging is a pain.

I’m a 35-year-old researcher, and I feel qualified to tell you that, regardless of what a professional athlete older than me must feel.

We saw glimpses of what made Aaron Rodgers great in his prime last week. He put a jump ball up for DK Metcalf, where only his teammate was going to get it (it moved Rodgers into fourth on the all-time pass TD list), and found Calvin Austin on a 17-yard strike with vintage precision.

But that was really it against the Patriots. No big chunk plays, no rushing production, and no excitement. He’s got Pittsburgh at 2-1 in a very methodical and conservative fashion because that’s what he can do at this point.

Maybe he can continue to grind out wins for the Steelers, but he’s not doing it for fantasy managers with consecutive finishes easily outside of the top 20.

Baker Mayfield | TB (vs PHI)

Baker Mayfield is the type of player you want your fantasy fate in the hands of because it truly feels like he has your back. He fights for every inch and is willing to put his body (and chain) in harm’s way to get it done.

He doesn’t play like a former first overall pick; he plays like that last kid picked for a schoolyard hoops game that has to grind out every edge to maximize his value.

The loss of Mike Evans for a few weeks will be felt, potentially in a big way against this strong Eagles defense, but with Emeka Egbuka profiling like young Mike Evans, I’m not sure Mayfield’s stock will come crashing down.

RELATED: Baker Mayfield Gets Brutally Honest While Revealing Deeply Personal Motivation in Bucs’ Week 3 Win Over Jets

He’s been QB13 or better every week this season in part because he has 30+ rushing yards in every contest. As defenses start to fear his legs, I’m looking for big pass plays to open up outside of the pocket, especially with a veteran like Chris Godwin nearing return.

Mayfield is currently QB11 for Week 4, and I think you’re sitting pretty moving forward if you drafted him.

Bo Nix | DEN (vs CIN)

If there’s going to be a week to right the ship, this has to be it, right?

Bo Nix has yet to post a top 10 week after being drafted to do just that. He’s averaging under 25 rushing yards per game and under 6.0 yards per pass, a brutal combination, but both of which I expect to rebound with time.

As a passer, it’s been a dip in the deep numbers that have made the beginning of his encore season disappointing. His yards per pass on balls thrown 15+ yards downfield is down 18.5%, and he’s completed just five of those 18 throws.

His receivers should have all day to get loose and open up windows for those throws against the least aggressive defense in the league (6.6% blitz rate, NFL average: 26.5%), and when you combine that with some tough matchups for Dak Prescott (vs. GB), Patrick Mahomes (vs. BAL), and Jared Goff (vs. CLE), I get a top 12 QB for Week 4.

Brock Purdy | SF (vs JAX)

The nagging toe injury cost Brock Purdy another game, but all signs point to a Week 4 return.

San Francisco escaped with a win in Week 3, but the Mac Jones experience was a little more uneven (one touchdown and one interception) than it was the week prior in New Orleans (three touchdowns and zero picks).

We are reminded seemingly every week that rushing production as much as anything is what fuels production at the QB position. Purdy ran for 17 yards in the season opener and looked comfortable in space in 2024, but there are obvious reasons to worry about his potential on that front in the short term.

I think he’s worth holding onto, especially as the second half of the season approaches and this team (maybe, hopefully) trends toward full strength, but I’m not tempted to roll the dice this week, assuming he suits up.

Purdy sits comfortably outside of my top 15 at the position ahead of Week 4.

Bryce Young | CAR (at NE)

Bryce Young threw more passes in the fourth quarter of Week 2 than he’s averaged in Weeks 1 and 3, and outside of that frenetic stanza, he’s shown little to no growth in Year 3.

The fantasy version of my brain was encouraged by the first-quarter rushing score last week (he had six a year ago, tying him for the third-best at the position), but considering that was essentially his only source of fantasy production, those positive vibes disappeared quickly.

Young is a low-end QB2 in superflex spots, and even that I don’t feel great about.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs TEN)

If you block it, they will come.

“It” is any defender, and “they” are fantasy points. I’m not throwing in the towel on C.J. Stroud as an NFL QB, but he, in this specific setting, seems to be a dead fantasy asset.

He’s yet to reach 210 passing yards in a game this season and has totaled just two touchdown tosses on 89 attempts, both to Nico Collins (one of which was a complete defensive lapse).

I struggle even to call the 20+ rush yards in all three games a positive (four such games in 2021) because it’s more him running for his life than it is him running as a strategy.

This is a great matchup, and as a cheap DFS stack, I’ll listen, but there’s no reason to go with a player set up to fail who has yet to have a top-20 week with all 32 teams in action.

Caleb Williams | CHI (at LV)

We are probably still a few weeks away from labeling Caleb Williams as a weekly lineup lock, but Week 3’s QB1 has certainly looked comfortable for most of 2025.

Last week, against an admittedly awful Cowboys defense, Williams escaped without a single sack. He became the third Bears QB in a decade to record four touchdown passes without a pick (the others: Justin Fields and, of course, Mitch Trubisky).

Caleb Williams – whom everyone loves to hate on – this season:

🔥2nd in total touchdowns

🔥2nd in passing touchdowns

🔥3rd in QB fantasy points

🔥6th in passer rating

🔥9th in QBR

Shhhhhhhhhh 🤫🤫
pic.twitter.com/xvRQkM4t6D

— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) September 24, 2025

He’s currently pacing for over 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards, thresholds that only five QBs have hit during the 2000s (Josh Allen (3x), Russell Wilson (2x), Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Cam Newton).

There’s no excuse for not jumping on the Williams bandwagon this week after the Raiders just allowed the Commanders to hang 41 points on the board.

Cameron Ward | TEN (at HOU)

A pick-six on the third play of the game is certainly an interesting way to start the game.

Cam Ward continues to do the same thing weekly, and I see no reason to anticipate change for much of his first NFL season. Each week, we see flashes of potential and moments of youth. That’s not a rare combination for a 23-year-old. In fact, I’m more encouraged, long-term, about the good than the bad after three games.

The developing connection with Elic Ayomanoar is yet another reason to buy stock in Ward in dynasty/keeper formats. Still, for redraft managers, there’s no reason to roster the rookie given the loaded nature of the position.

Carson Wentz | MIN (at PIT)

I’m not the least bit confident we know anything more about Carson Wentz today than we did a week ago, and that makes him a player you don’t need to concern yourself with in single-QB leagues.

Sure, the opening drive against the Bengals over the weekend was impressive (3-of-4 for 29 yards, including a 12-yard score to Josh Oliver). But this game got out of hand so quickly, courtesy of the Vikings’ defense, that there was really no evaluation to take place.

He featured his two primary pass catchers, T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson, which is a net positive moving forward for all involved. But with Jordan Addison returning this week, I’m not entirely sure what the target distribution will look like.

Wentz did enough to keep me playing my Vikings as I normally would, and that means zero exposure to the QB position in standard formats.

Dak Prescott | DAL (vs GB)

It’s easy to replay all of the highlights of that Week 2 instant classic with the Giants (QB6 for that week), but Dak Prescott hasn’t been a top 20 signal caller in the other two weeks and is now being asked to face an elite defense without his go-to weapon.

The Cowboys typically want to outscore opponents and thus play a fantasy-friendly style, but I have to imagine they rein that in some this week, especially with Micah Parsons chomping at the bit.

You need quality or quantity from pocket passes at the very minimum, and I’m not confident you’ll get either on Sunday night.

Daniel Jones | IND (at LAR)

The Colts have tailored their offense to capitalize on the strengths of Daniel Jones, which has enabled him to achieve success at the level he has so far. He leads the league with 13 out-of-pocket completions thus far, and it’s only taken him 15 attempts to get there.

Players in the 2000s to have 800 pass yards, 50 rush yards, and 0 INTs through Week 3:

• Lamar Jackson (2019) – MVP
• Patrick Mahomes (2020) – Won the AFC
• Daniel Jones (2025) – ???

Of course, the rushing production has been what has allowed Jones to elevate his fantasy stock massively, and while I think it will stick for the season, color me skeptical for this week.

The Rams rank 24th in blitz rate this season, and that should allow them to allocate a spy on Jones. If that’s not working, they are ridiculously good when they do elect to send an extra rusher (69.2% pressure rate when blitzing, easily the top mark in an NFL where the league average is 44.7%).

If Jones finishes as a top 12 QB for a fourth consecutive week, I think he barely does it. He’s my QB12 for the week, with Jordan Love (at DAL) one spot ahead and bounce-back Bo Nix (vs. CLE) one spot behind.

Drake Maye | NE (vs CAR)

Drake Maye is averaging seven rush attempts per game this season, not bad for a player who hit that number just once as a rookie.

The Patriots are clearly interested in unlocking that part of their franchise QB, and who are we to complain?

That threat has opened up things a bit as a passer: Maye has multiple passing scores in consecutive games for just the second time in his career (a top-7 QB in each of those weeks).

The only flaw I guess you could poke in this Week 4 profile is New England’s stated goal of getting their running backs more confidence after a three-fumble game. If the home team is dominating, could this be a 25-pass, three-rush sort of afternoon from Maye?

It’s possible, but I generally guard against assuming we know exactly how a game will play out.

Maye is my QB7 for Week 4.

Geno Smith | LV (vs CHI)

Geno Smith follows up a zero-touchdown, three-interception game with a three-touchdown, zero-interception game because, of course, he does.

There was plenty of garbage time on Sunday in Washington to allow Smith to rack up counting numbers, and that’s great if you were forced into some weird spot where you had to play him, but I took away nothing in terms of sticky growth from the veteran.

He and Tre Tucker combined for one of the more unique DFS money-making tandems of the season, and while I don’t doubt that the Raiders will fall behind like this again, counting on it is dangerous at best.

Smith is the definition of league average and can funnel targets to the two players you need him to. Expecting more than that is a mistake on your part, especially when playing behind an offensive line that has left Ashton Jeanty wondering what open space looks like through three weeks.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at PIT)

A Week 2 high ankle sprain is expected to cost J.J. McCarthy 2-4 weeks (Week 6 bye) after he got dinged up against the Falcons.

I expect the Vikings to take a very cautious approach with a QB they hope to build a long-term winner around: not only is he coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, but the NFC North isn’t exactly up for grabs at the moment.

Dynasty managers need to find a replacement, while redraft managers who stashed McCarthy as an upside backup can feel free to move on. Even if he returns after the bye, the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens await Minnesota in Weeks 7-10.

This season will be viewed as a success if McCarthy can return and get reps; there’s no reason to assume that high-end fantasy production will occur at any point in 2025.

The Vikings will continue to bet on 32-year-old Carson Wentz to steady the ship for now, something that fantasy managers are right to be wary of.

Jake Browning | CIN (at DEN)

Russell Wilson was a mess on Sunday night, and the Falcons got shut out by the Panthers: that makes it quite the accomplishment for Jake Browning to finish our QBi grading metric as the worst quarterback in Week 3.

By a wide margin.

On Sunday in Minnesota, Browning completed as many passes traveling 10+ yards in the air to the Vikings as to his teammates (two) and never looked comfortable against the most aggressive defense in the league. Before a garbage-time touchdown pass to Drew Sample (why would it go where we need and bail us out?!?), his first 25 passes totaled 1.4 fantasy points.

Next up: the third-most aggressive defense in terms of blitz rate since the beginning of last season.

We are fighting an uphill battle to have Browning support one, never mind two, pass catchers. I’ll address that situation in a bit, but in the scope of Browning, he’s not even a two-QB starter for me on Monday night.

Jakobi Meyers and George Pickens. Those are two receivers I like more than you, and two receivers that I’d rather put in a superflex spot than Browning.

I’d rarely make such a call, but things were that bad on Sunday and might not be any better in this spot.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (at TB)

We got the complete package from Jalen Hurts on Sunday, and that was good to see.

Passing Splits

• First 10 quarters this season: 38/53 for 270 yards and 0 TD
• Second half on Sunday: 17/24 for 209 pass yards and three TDs

It was nice to get a reminder that, when pressed, Hurts can still get it done through the air. The problem for his pass catchers is that this team is on a dynastic run, and playing from behind isn’t exactly a common occurrence.

We will let the A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith managers worry about that. Regarding Hurts, most of the outcomes are positive. If Philadelphia is up big, it’s because he fueled some success on the ground, and if not, he’ll punish opponents through the air.

There is destined to be a Saquon Barkley game at some point, but you take the good with the bad. I don’t see the Bucs slowing down Hurts (at least one rushing score in 11 of his past 12 healthy regular-season games) this weekend, and that means you’re set up for another high-floor performance at the very least.

Jared Goff | DET (vs CLE)

It’s hard to quantify just how good Jared Goff has been, but I’m going to try. Since he had that nationally televised five-pick game in Houston last season, he’s played in 11 regular season games:

• 74% complete
• 3,310 passing yards
• 28 TD
• 4 INT
• 22.1 fantasy PPG (QB4)

Yeah, that’ll work. He’s completed over 71% of his passes in six straight and typically thrives at home on the fast track.

Typically.

This will be an interesting spot against a Browns defense that wants to grind the clock to a stop. Cleveland’s defense is top five in yards per play, rush yards allowed, and pass yards allowed through three weeks, and the unit gets more time to prepare for Goff than Goff does for them.

If you start Goff weekly, you’re not adding someone from the wire, but I would lower expectations a touch.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (vs LAC)

Jaxson Dart was named the starter for the Giants on Tuesday, a move that felt close to inevitable with the team experimenting with packages for him over the past two weeks.

He looked great this preseason, but his fantasy stock is very much TBD in a tough spot and with limited help.

This season was never going to be packed with wins for New York, but now that they are knee-deep in the developmental waters, I think there’s some fantasy upside to chase, with time, as this nucleus grows together.

There will, of course, be plenty of bumps along the way. Consider this offense one of DFS interest for me over time.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (at ATL)

Jayden Daniels’ first DNP of his NFL career last week resulted from a knee injury, an ailment that became more concerning as the missed practices piled up.

I’m cautiously optimistic that the explosive second-year player will be back in the mix this week, and assuming that’s the case, he’s in your lineup.

Up to this point, Daniels has been a top-15 fantasy finisher at the position in 15 of his 17 career full games, and I see no real reason to pivot off of that expectation. Sure, you could sweat potential mobility concerns, and that’s a viable thought process when it comes to his ceiling, but considering that C.J. Stroud is the only rookie since 2012 to post a higher in-pocket passer rating than Daniels.

The path to production could look a touch different, but that slides him down into the top of Tier 2 (Falcons: league-low five red zone trips allowed), not out of fantasy lineups in any situation.

Joe Burrow | CIN (at DEN)

We spent all offseason wondering aloud if Joe Burrow was the top quarterback in the second tier or if his elite passing numbers were enough to put him in the class of the athletic marvels at the position.

They were fun conversations to have, but they don’t matter now. Burrow (turf toe) is going to be out until December at the very least, and that means he’s going to be cut loose in all leagues that don’t have enough IR room for him. And even then, we aren’t sure the Bengals will be in a position to compete when Burrow returns to the practice field.

I want to use this brutal injury as a launching point. Football is as physically taxing a team sport as there is. That’s obviously more true for some positions than others, but it’s a gladiator sport where everyone on the field isn’t far from a significant injury.

READ MORE: Bengals HC Zac Taylor Hints Joe Burrow Could Return During 2025 NFL Season

The four quarterbacks drafted ahead of Burrow this summer are much more athletic, and their ability to run often gets tied to an increase in injury risk. I understand the train of thought: they invite contact when they are on the move.

That’s accurate.

But what doesn’t get looked at enough is the other side of the coin: that quarterback is also capable of escaping trouble spots at a higher rate than average. No one is catching Jayden Daniels from behind, so while he is at risk of taking punishment, it’s usually coming head-on, and in those spots, he has the opportunity to make a business decision.

I’m not arguing that Burrow is more likely to get hurt than the Danielses of the world, though it is worth noting that he missed six games in 2020 and seven more in 2023. I’m arguing against the assumption that athletic quarterbacks are reckless investments.

Are they risky? Yes. Because they play football. Josh Allen’s propensity to take hits is worrisome to the eye, but he’s been huge and taking hits his entire life. There’s something to be said for knowing how to do it, and that’s a big reason why I’ll never shy away from that prototype.

Joe Flacco | CLE (at DET)

Joe Flacco has thrown a pressured interception in all three weeks this season, and without the ability to threaten defenses with his legs, what will stop defenses from bringing the house on a routine basis?

Nothing. There’s nothing to stop them, and they will continue to do it.

Cleveland is allowing its veteran to feel the heat on 39.8% of non-blitzed dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL through three weeks. There are some interesting players on this roster, but the skill set match simply isn’t there, and this feels like a situation that is destined to embrace development sooner than later.

Flacco and his two touchdowns on 126 attempts this season obviously do not need to be rostered in any format. There’s flex appeal across the board on this roster, but in a matchup like this, I’m not going out of my way to start a single Brown in Week 4.

Jordan Love | GB (at DAL)

Jordan Love is averaging 8.5 yards per pass this season, and that’s great, but he’s yet to crack fantasy’s top 10 once.

It’ll all come together soon enough.

The Cowboys are struggling to create pressure this season, presumably because they no longer have a man who calls Wisconsin home these days, and that figures to doom them in a major way.

When not pressured this season, Love is 43-of-51 for 560 yards, five touchdowns, and the bad interception against the Browns on Sunday, where he seemed to predetermine where he was going with the ball. That one mistake aside, he’s essentially been flawless, and if Matthew Golden is going to be unleashed, this could be a spike week.

I think Week 3’s dud taught us more about the Browns’ defense than anything about what the Packers can or can’t do without Jayden Reed on the field.

I’m expecting Love to have his best week of the season to date, and that puts him on the radar in all leagues, not to mention as the captain in showdown DFS contests.

Josh Allen | BUF (vs NO)

The evolution of Josh Allen is remarkable to watch, and while I’m not sure it’s ideal for his fantasy stock, it’s likely to continue given the success that the Bills are having with this new version of him.

Allen has completed over 71% of his passes in two of three games to open 2025 and hasn’t thrown an interception since Christmas. We get glimpses of chaotic Allen coming out from time to time (two weird flick passes on Thursday night being the latest example, one of which was a touchdown and the other a very questionable risk to take), but it’s rare. He’s taking what is given to him and trusting his supporting cast.

That’s going to win a lot of games, albeit at the cost sometimes of fantasy production. After carrying 14 times in the opener (two touchdowns), Allen has just 10 carries since and hasn’t scored. James Cook has been great in the traditional run game, while the Khalil Shakir/Dalton Kincaid tandem is one he trusts underneath, not to mention some development of Keon Coleman on that front.

Allen remains an elite fantasy option, don’t get me wrong. Buffalo is in scoring position the second his hands touch the ball, and that’s simply a fact. The leveling up of his quarterback play (at least eight different players have a reception in all three games this season) helps stabilize his weekly value, even if it comes at the cost of some of his ceiling.

I’m not sure there’s a path to significant profit given where you drafted Allen this summer, though I also find it unlikely that he’s the reason your fantasy team underachieves.

Justin Fields | NYJ (at MIA)

Justin Fields was yanked from the Week 2 beatdown against the Bills with a concussion, and the league protocols kept him out last week against the Buccaneers.

We saw the peak of what he is capable of in the thrilling Week 1 loss to the Steelers (9.9 yards per pass with 16.8 points on the ground) and the inconsistencies that make him maddening in Week 2 before departing (3-of-11 passing).

The true version of him obviously rests somewhere in the middle, and with the Dolphins on tap, a ceiling game is certainly possible. That said, this defense competed last week and will benefit from an extended prep week.

I don’t like sitting on the fence, but that’s the play early in the week. As we near the weekend, stay tuned for an updated take. Right now, I have him as a fringe top-15 quarterback. I’m intrigued by his upside and how featured Garrett Wilson is in this offense, but the risk is too high at this moment in time to come out too bullish.

If the practice reports are clean entering the weekend, we are looking at a QB1 whose versatility is a cheat code.

Justin Herbert | LAC (at NYG)

Sunday was a perfect picture of why fantasy analysts everywhere are tripping over themselves to praise Justin Herbert.

Last season, if the Chargers were caught up in a tight divisional game and their QB was completing under 60% of his passes with a turnover under his belt, the volume would have disappeared.

That’s not the case in 2025, and it won’t be the case.

Herbert showcased all of his skills in the final five minutes of the comeback win over the Broncos because he was allowed to. Jim Harbaugh wanted his franchise quarterback to decide the game, for better or worse, and that’s all we can ask for.

Through three weeks, Herbert is averaging 30 fantasy scoring chances (completions plus rushing attempts) per game, and with a talented trio of receivers, his profile looks a lot like 2024 Joe Burrow. He’s elevating the talent around him, and the Najee Harris injury puts even more responsibilities on his shoulders.

The Giants have had their moments on defense this season, but when the opposing offense pushes the gas down on the pass game, they’ve had success – that’s the only speed this offense knows.

Herbert is my QB4 for Week 4, ranking ahead of a potentially limited Jayden Daniels.

Kyler Murray | ARI (vs SEA)

It truly feels like we are an unlocked Harrison away from Kyler Murray being labeled as a top-five QB every week. Even with his presumed WR1 struggling, Murray has both a 30+ yard completion and 30+ yards rushing in all three games this season, showcasing the type of floor we love to have access to.

The quality of competition in Weeks 1-2 certainly does factor into his production, especially with a divisional opponent that has traditionally given him fits in the past on the schedule.

Murray hasn’t cleared 19 fantasy points against the Seahawks since Week 11, 2020 (five pass TDs against four interceptions in their past five meetings with just 58 rushing yards over the past three).

I’m more optimistic than that, but not completely sold. He’ll take the field on Thursday night ranked just outside of my top 10 at the position.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (at KC)

Win, lose. Rain, shine. It doesn’t matter; Lamar Jackson is as good a bet as anyone in the sport to put you in position to win your week.

Not only has he been a top four scorer at the position in all three weeks this season, but he’s also been a top six producer in 14 of his past 22. The floor is so high for a player who has mastered every aspect of this game. If there is any shying away from Derrick Henry due to the recent fumble issues (for the record, I don’t expect there to be), the floor/ceiling combination only improves.

The Lions sacked him seven times and shut down his WR1. That should mean that he struggled, but he still totaled 323 yards of offense and three scores.

Inevitable.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (at ATL)

Marcus Mariota gave us the full range of emotions last week. From a scrambling touchdown to a chunk play with his legs on a designed play that he would go on to fumble to a bomb, we got the full menu.

The production on the ground allowed him to finish the week as a top 10 QB, and while I think that’s probably optimistic, this week, should he get the start, he’d certainly be on the streaming/DFS radar, provided that Terry McLaurin suits up.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs IND)

Matthew Stafford is exactly who he is, and there is some comfort to that.

But there’s essentially no upside.

He’s finished every week this season in the QB15-20 range, and that’s to be expected from a pocket-locked quarterback in this world of athletes.

He’s completed 76.6% of his passes this season when not pressured, and with the Colts creating pressure at the fifth-lowest rate through three weeks (26.8% of opponent dropbacks), this could be an efficient day for the veteran.

Efficient for Stafford means good things for Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. He’d have to be near-perfect to put himself into the top 12 mix, and that’s why he again settles into that middling QB2 tier for me this weekend.

Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs WAS)

Michael Penix has thrown more touchdowns to the wrong team than the right one over the past two weeks, and that’s generally an indicator of poor fantasy performance.

The pick-6 last week came on an attempted dump-off to Bijan Robinson because … well, why would you expect anything different?

This season, Penix has misfired on 15 of 17 deep throws. That helps explain the Drake London struggles, and things are going to get a lot worse for all involved if he can at least make defenses consider the idea that they are at risk downfield.

I’ve lost hope that Penix will consistently return QB2 value, and now I’m just hoping he can do enough to stabilize his elite teammates.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs BAL)

Like we’ve always said: if you can simply make Patrick Mahomes beat you from the pocket, you’re safe.

Okay, not exactly, but that’s how things have played out through three weeks. Mahomes has five career games where 45% (or more) of his fantasy points were generated with his legs, and two have come this season.

He was a top 7 QB in both of those weeks.

Against the Giants on Sunday night, Mahomes was contained (two yards on five carries) and finished the week as QB18.

This is a weird time for the Chiefs in terms of their roster. For whatever reason, the Travis Kelce/Mahomes connection isn’t clicking, Xavier Worthy can’t lift his arm above his head, and Rashee Rice still has three weeks left on his suspension.

I think this all figures itself out over time, but in the short term, I’m not going this direction. Mahomes is my QB15 this week, and I fear I’m too high. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we are looking at a top 7 QB over the final month of the fantasy season (at DAL, vs HOU, vs LAC, at TEN, vs DEN).

Russell Wilson | NYG (vs LAC)

Russell Wilson had a career day in Week 2 against the Cowboys, but he wasn’t a top 20 QB in either of his other two starts and never really looked comfortable.

The Giants aren’t going anywhere in 2025, no matter what they do under center, and that’s why Tuesday’s decision to hand the keys to Jaxson Dart shouldn’t come as a surprise.

I’m not sure what type of league would have required you to hold onto Wilson up to this point, but you can move on: this is the Dart show, for better or worse.

Sam Darnold | SEA (at ARI)

Sam Darnold orchestrated his first top 20 finish of the season last week (QB9 against the lowly Saints). While I’m not exactly buying numbers produced against arguably the worst team in the league as sticky, we could see back-to-back productive weeks for the former Panther.

Like the rest of the world, I’ve got my questions about Darnold when under duress. That gets talked about a lot, and we love to pick apart the negatives, but he’s been pretty good for 13 months now when not under pressure.

Since the beginning of last season, the Cardinals rank 25th in total pressure rate and 26th when they blitz. They struggle to make opponents uncomfortable, and if that means Jaxon Smith-Njigba (22-323-1) can get loose, then we are in business.

If Cooper Kupp finds the fountain of youth for a second straight week? Fuhgeddaboudit.

I’m not saying you start him in season-long leagues, but in a week-long sort of contest that includes all prime-time games?

At cost, I’m interested.

Spencer Rattler | NO (at BUF)

I can’t imagine you need me to tell you that you’re not going the Spencer Rattler direction in Buffalo, but if you do, fine.

Don’t.

Now that we have that hard-hitting analysis out of the way for a QB that hasn’t finished in the top 20 among signal callers in two of three weeks, how about your weird factoid of the day?

This season, Rattler has completed 62.2% of passes when targeting Chris Olave, objectively his most talented pass-catching teammate, and 74% when going to anyone else.

If his accuracy to “the others” sticks, there are upcoming games against the Giants, Bears, and Panthers where you might be able to talk me into an off-the-wall DFS build where we pay up for everything else.

But this isn’t the week for that.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at SF)

Trevor Lawrence has one top-20 finish at the position since Week 9 of last season and has been intercepted in six straight games.

In fantasy football circa 2025, you need to be an elite athlete OR have a strong connection with your top pass catcher to produce. Look up and down the weekly rankings, and one of those two factors will be a part of the profile for any QB you trust.

We thought Lawrence would have both.

From 2022-24, he averaged a rushing score every 3.6 games, and Brian Thomas Jr. put his name in the conversation for the game’s best receivers as a rookie.

Before September ends, we have neither.

Over the past two weeks, Lawrence has 13 yards on four carries and looks hesitant to move the chains with his legs. The rushing production has evaporated, but the lack of continuity with his WR1 is the true black eye on his fantasy profile.

• 7 completions (one of 20+ yards)
• 25 targets
• 0 touchdown receptions

The undefeated 49ers have seen their defense bounce back in a big way through three weeks. Some of their strong metrics are a result of low-end quarterback play, but that’s likely to be the case again this week.

The San Francisco defense is a strong play, and Lawrence isn’t close to my top 20 at the position.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs NYJ)

The NFL rate for the percentage of throws traveling 15+ yards in the air annually settles in around 21%. League-wide, this number has been trending downward, but Tua Tagovailoa is taking it to a different level, and that’s an issue when maximizing a player like Tyreek Hill.

He’s been under 17.5% in two of three games this season.

In theory, the run-after-the-catch potential of his weapons makes this a more viable strategy for him than most. Still, when you have the broadcast fawning over his willingness to play within himself in a game where he averages 4.3 yards per completion, we’ve got a problem.

The bar for Tagovailoa to impress is so low at this point that we are willing to latch onto anything. His quick decision-making on Thursday was a decent step for the Miami franchise, but he’s a long way away from mattering for us.

Without rushing upside or downfield shots, isn’t Tagovailoa what you’d expect from Tom Brady if he came out of retirement?

Tagovailoa is a low-upside option in superflex formats at best this week, and I’m not sure we see that change at any point over the next three months.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at PIT)

We saw what was at risk from Aaron Jones Sr. taking almost a 2024 Jaylen Warren role to Jordan Mason’s Najee Harris in Week 2, so given that the former Packer is on injured reserve for at least another three weeks, it saved you from yourself.

It’s human nature.

When we spend something meaningful, we take an overly optimistic view of it when asked to evaluate. Jones cost you a sixth-round pick this summer and, therefore, you were naturally more likely to look at his Week 1 usage as optimistic, citing the downfield routes as a path to rare upside.

In theory, those routes do offer something that few running backs have access to, but if not complemented by the stuff that every running back has access to, the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze.

Jones is a 30-year-old back with more than 1,700 touches on his NFL resume. The truth of the matter is that an injury was a real risk, and with a fading role, he may never return to an RB2 range this season.

You’re holding tight, but that’s more because you really don’t have a choice. He wasn’t involved much before the injury, and that tanked any trade value he could have had.

Alvin Kamara | NO (at BUF)

Alvin Kamara failed to return value last week for the first time this season, but it probably won’t be the last, given the lack of help he has on this roster.

The touch count is elite (59 this year), but the value of each one of those opportunities is iffy at best. They very rarely come in scoring position, and that means chunk plays are the path to success, but the 30-year-old Kamara hasn’t shown us proof of life in that regard.

His last rush of 25+ yards came more than three years ago, and he’s failed to earn more than two targets in two of three weeks this season. New Orleans got their doors blown off last week by the Seahawks (44-13), but you’d never know it by Kamara’s 18-carry, one-catch stat line.

This team seems resigned to its 2025 fate, and that’s going to crush the ceiling of Kamara. The number of touches will earn him RB2 status in plus-spot and might get him there against a Bills defense that has had injury issues, but the next highlight play involving him gives you a reason to see what your leaguemates think of him.

The name outweighs the production at this point.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (vs CHI)

Ashton Jeanty faces the worst defense in the league this week in terms of yards allowed before first contact, and that might just give the rookie a chance to show the pros what so many college kids fell victim to a year ago.

Jeanty in space.

We’ve yet to see it behind a struggling offensive line, but if they can muster even an average performance in this spot, Jeanty may double his stat line for the season on Sunday (147 yards and a touchdown).

Since 2016, the highest percentage of rush yards coming after contact in their first three career games (minimum 20 carries):

• Ashton Jeanty: 101.5%
• Cam Akers (2020): 95.5%
• Quinshon Judkins (2025): 92.9%

A big week this week wouldn’t mean that all is fixed in Sin City, but it would give us a glimpse as to what is possible should the Raiders find a way to build this roster from the inside out in the coming years.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at SF)

The excitement around Bhayshul Tuten makes sense, and the steam only grew after Adam Schefter mentioned an increase in usage being a part of the plan for the rookie, but let’s pump the brakes a touch.

I’m aware that he’s scored in consecutive weeks and that the Jags seem to be motivated to find ways to get him the ball in good spots, but we are still talking about a player who’s been on the field for 17.1% of the offensive snaps and is attached to a unit that is largely struggling.

Tuten needs to be universally rostered, but we are still a few weeks away, at the minimum, before he creeps onto the flex radar.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs WAS)

The game just looks easy for Bijan Robinson.

He has a 25+ yard touch in all three games this season, and last week, it came on a third-down screen pass that was as basic as it gets. There was nothing exotic, but the play was run on time, and that meant Robinson was attacking the Panthers while running downhill.

Despite the 1-2 start for Atlanta, Robinson has been a top 12 producer at the position in all three weeks and stands to improve as the environment around him stabilizes.

Gaining 111 yards on an afternoon in which your team fails to score is no small accomplishment, and as long as this offense recovers, Robinson still has a good chance to finish the year as fantasy’s top-scoring running back.

Braelon Allen | NYJ (at MIA)

Braelon Allen has yet to get more than six carries in a game this season, and we know the passing infrastructure isn’t exactly strong in New York these days, no matter who is under center.

Not helping that cause last week was a failed fourth-down carry, the rare opportunity for Allen to have a significant impact on the game.

I haven’t been impressed in the slightest with Breece Hall after the impressive opener, but Allen hasn’t been given a real chance to show his worth, and that tells me that the Jets don’t think he can really push Hall for the lead role.

Allen is a handcuff to a backfield that isn’t all that valuable to begin with. There’s a real chance he becomes a fantasy cut candidate by midseason.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at MIA)

Here’s your annual reminder to be patient.

As an industry, we were all out on Breece Hall entering this season. We thought that Braelon Allen would be a real threat and that the declining efficiency was predictive.

Then Week 1 happens, and Hall gashes the Steelers for 145 yards on 21 touches, causing us all to backtrack. Was the explosive version of Hall back? Could this offense be crazy enough to work?

Turns out, no.

This offense hasn’t looked half as good as it did in Week 1 since, and Hall has picked up just 50 yards on 19 rushing attempts. New York has had the ball for under 28 minutes in consecutive games, and their lead back hasn’t been a top 30 RB in either after the RB10 showing in Week 1.

This matchup looks a lot like Week 1, which is why I’m cautiously optimistic. This is a weak defense, and we could see some points put on the board. If this goes according to script, Hall is finishing with 16-18 touches with 100-yard upside and the potential to find paydirt.

If he comes through in this spot, he removes all committee talk for the short term and returns to top 20 status. If he struggles, Allen could make this a committee in short order, lending credence to our preseason takes that we thought were dead after 60 minutes of action.

Brian Robinson Jr. | SF (vs JAX)

Brian Robinson is the clear handcuff to Christian McCaffrey, and that means he virtually gets Sundays off until otherwise noted.

This system, relying on a single back, introduces more upside to the profile of a handcuff than others around the league, and it removes all temptation from talking yourself into flex consideration when you’re in a tough spot.

You’re playing the long game with Robinson, and that’s worthy of a spot on your bench.

Bucky Irving | TB (vs PHI)

I think you have to take the positive approach when it comes to Bucky Irving.

We saw him land haymaker after haymaker a season ago, but through three weeks this season, we’ve gotten very little. The second-year back doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 16 yards (56 attempts), and while the matchups have been tough (Falcons, Texans, and Jets), we thought Irving had the potential to return Round 1 value this season and thus be matchup-proof.

The dirty secret is that he kind of has been.

At 3.1 yards per carry and Rachaad White running better than expected, can we agree that this is about as bad as it gets?

That’s my thought, and yet Irving has been a top-15 RB in all three weeks.

Versatility has been the key (over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all three games), and that’s not going anywhere. This is obviously another tough opponent, but given the numerous ways Irving can impact this offense, I have no issue ranking him as an RB1 that I’m playing without a second thought.

Cam Skattebo | NYG (vs LAC)

“Tenacity”

“Fearlessness”

These are all vague words that we (myself included) use to describe running backs from time to time. There is no advanced metric bar to clear to get into the tier of RB where those words are deemed viable, but we all kind of know it when we see it.

Cam Skattebo certainly qualifies.

The rookie is averaging 3.5 yards per carry after first contact this season, and the bulldozing mentality should play well against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-most post-contact yards per carry through three weeks.

But don’t let that bull-in-a-china-shop mentality fool you: we are talking about a profile that also includes some pass-catching chops (eight targets on 23 routes last weekend against the Chiefs).

It’s a shame that Tyrone Tracy dislocated his shoulder. That’s a painful injury for a young back who has a bright future. That said, it opens the door for the Giants to fully embrace their rookie movement, and if this looks viable against a good defense, the G-Men will be able to sell hope to their fan base.

Skattebo is a solid RB2 this week, and I have him ranked as the second-best rookie RB on what could be a slate dominated by first-year rushers.

Chase Brown | CIN (at DEN)

Chase Brown was one of the biggest risers in our Mock Draft Simulator as draft season drew to a close, and it made all the sense in the world.

At that time, he was a bellcow set to lead a high-powered offense that would be asked to score 30 points a game to stay competitive.

That last part may still be true, but the math has changed significantly with Jake Browning under center. This is now a conservative offense that gives defenses no reason to back off from the line of scrimmage.

That’s how we see a talented player like Brown average under a foot per carry in Week 3 and muster just 17 yards on four receptions against the Vikings. The touch count should remain high enough to keep Brown in the low-end RB2 conversation against a Broncos defense that has surprisingly allowed the fourth-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season, but without a path to much upside.

Brown has yet to finish a week as a top-20 back in 2022 and has twice been outside the top 30. I think we see some growth this week as Browning settles in, but this is a brutal spot.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at ATL)

I was surprised that the Commanders led off last week with a heavy dose of Chris Rodriguez, but that speaks to the committed nature of this backfield.

After four straight handoffs to get things underway (25 yards), C-Rod carried just seven more times for the afternoon, picking up 14 yards in the process.

Rodriguez was a two-down back during his time at Kentucky, and we’ve yet to see him be extended in a major way as a pro. I don’t think the player himself holds value in our game, but he will certainly be involved, and that takes value away from the other two backs in this system.

If you can play fantasy this week, and maybe for the rest of this year, without having to bank on a Washington running back, your mental health will improve.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs JAX)

It seems like every week Christian McCaffrey plays, he puts his name on another impressive list. After being a part of almost everything that went right for the 49ers last week, CMC joined Marshall Faulk as the only players since 2000 to have 50+ rushing and 50+ receiving yards in Weeks 1-2-3.

McCaffrey hasn’t finished worse than RB6 in a week this season, and his role is as close to bulletproof as it gets. You embraced a touch of a discount this summer in acquiring his services, and I hope you were able to build a super team around him.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at NE)

Chuba Hubbard was great last season, but, as a runner, it’s been tough to replicate that success.

Through three weeks, his yards per carry are down more than a full yard from 2021, and his next carry of 15+ yards will be his first.

The key to his value lies in the passing game. He cleared 30 yards and scored through the air in each of the first two weeks, but his three targets netted just three yards on Sunday against the Falcons, and that spelled trouble for his managers.

If you’re counting on top 20 production out of Hubbard this week, that’s what you’re banking on. The Patriots are allowing exactly zero yards per carry before contact to running backs this season (second-best) and will likely crowd the line of scrimmage in an effort to make Bryce Young beat them.

I’m worried about his rushing efficiency, but 4-6 targets seem likely, and if he can turn that into at least six fantasy points, I think you’re fine starting Hubbard wherever you have him.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (at LV)

This season could be a wild ride for the Bears, and I think D’Andre Swift fans are okay with that.

He’s averaging 17 touches per game and is critical to how this offense functions, be it via the dump-off pass or the traditional ground game.

Roschon Johnson isn’t getting on the field, and Kyle Monangai, despite a great first name, is picking up just 3.4 yards per carry in his fall-forward role. Swift has a role that allows him to have access to elite versatility, and that’s how the fantasy bills are paid:

12+ carries and 3+ catches in all 3 Weeks

• Christian McCaffrey
• Bijan Robinson
• Breece Hall
• D’Andre Swift

I’m going to have him ranked as an RB2 most weeks, and I think there’s upside this week in a game where the Bears are favored.

David Montgomery | DET (vs CLE)

I don’t remember the last time David Montgomery looked as explosive as he did on Monday night, and while it was great to see, I think you’re set up to get burned on Sunday.

The 72-yard run in Baltimore was Montgomery’s third longest of his career, and his 31-yard touchdown iced the game while pushing his total over his previous career high.

I’m not here to take anything away from last week, but this is a forward-looking business, and the facts are the facts. Detroit views Jahmyr Gibbs as their RB1, and we know how efficient Jared Goff is traditionally indoors.

In a neutral matchup, I’d be skeptical about blindly starting Montgomery (13.3 touches per game). But this is far from that:

RBs vs. Browns

Chase Brown, Week 1: 13.1 fantasy points (21.5 expected points)

Derrick Henry, Week 2: 2.3 fantasy points (8.5 expected points)

Josh Jacobs, Week 3: 12.4 fantasy points (26.6 expected points)

Relative to quality of touch, since the beginning of last season (minimum 10 carries), that is Brown’s sixth-worst game, Jacobs’ second-worst, and easily the worst for King Henry.

We are talking about a running back with a pretty low touch ceiling and a defense that, through three weeks at least, could claim to be the best in the sport.

Oh, yeah, and the Lions are on a short week.

Montgomery could well make me eat this, but he’s my RB29 for Week 4.

De’Von Achane | MIA (vs NYJ)

The man is doing all he can for the floundering fish, and with 15+ PPR points in all three games (all top 12 finishes) this season, De’Von Achane is trying his best to sustain fantasy value as the focal point of an offense that is on the fringes of broken.

Achane is currently Miami’s leading receiver in terms of targets and catches, doing what he can in this horizontally based attack (180 of his 141 receiving yards this season have come after the catch). He’s also running hard, a must given that opponents have yet to really be burned by the pass game for crowding the line of scrimmage.

In 2021, Achane was an above-average RB after contact on 54.2% of his carries. His job is largely to run away from contact in the first place, and he’s shifty enough to do that in many situations, so I didn’t label that unimpressive mark as much of a red flag.

His rushing stats will fall off a cliff if he regresses to that rate moving forward.

Through three weeks, that rate sits at an elite 76.7%. Miami is struggling in almost every facet of the game right now, but its standout running back is running hard and pacing for 102 receptions.

Ollie Gordon II was used to spell him much more on Thursday night than the two weeks prior, and while that deserves your attention, it could just as easily have been a result of the short work week for a sub-200-pound running back that handled 19 touches the week prior.

Derrick Henry | BAL (at KC)

The Chiefs’ defense is great, and the drumbeat around Derrick Henry putting the ball on the ground in all three games this season is real.

And I mean this with as much respect as possible, but you’re insane if you’re not rolling out Henry this week.

The Broncos were the third-best per-carry run defense last season, and Henry lit them up for 133 yards and two scores. He’s matchup-proof, and I don’t think the ball security issues are anything to sweat.

Maybe I’m out on a limb, but I’ll take my chances on a decade’s worth of data points over a weird September.

If Henry comes in at a low ownership number in the DFS streets, you can rest easy knowing where my lineups are going to start.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (at DET)

Consider this your reminder that Week 1 is the first piece to the puzzle, not an answer key.

Dylan Sampson caught eight balls in the season opener against the Bengals and showed impressive versatility. Still, with Quinshon Judkins in the fold, the fourth-round pick appears to be an afterthought.

With just eight touches over the past two weeks, it’s clear that Sampson has fallen out of the rotation on a team that is going to struggle to move the ball. There’s no reason to burn a roster spot in this fashion: move onto a handcuff running back, even if there isn’t much hope for standalone value (Rachaad White, Emari Demerara, and Woody Marks, for example).

Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs BAL)

Isiah Pacheco looked good on Sunday night compared to the first two weeks of the season, but that was an awfully low bar to clear, and Kareem Hunt was still just as big a part of the offense.

The Chiefs made a point of opening the second half last week with Pacheco, after starting the game with Hunt, and that’s a positive sign, but it also indicates just how low we have to dig for optimism.

I’m picking up shares of Pacheco where I can cheaply (he’s yet to finish a week as a top 40 player at the position), but that’s a strategy that I’m hoping pays off this winter, not over the next month.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (vs CIN)

I don’t think J.K. Dobbins is going to rush for a TD and earn multiple targets in all 17 games this season, but he’s 3-for-3 this season (he’s the only player that can lay that claim) and facing the worst defense in terms of red zone trips allowed.

This serves as a timely reminder of the game we play. It’s a weekly game. The injury profile is intimidating when looking down the road, and I won’t blame you for looking to make a move.

That said, if he’s on your roster heading into this week, you’re playing him. He hasn’t finished worse than RB16 in a game yet and held a 15-3 edge over R.J. Harvey in terms of first-down snaps in Week 3.

Dobbins has a high floor in a perfect matchup, and that’s a profile most would love to have. He’s deserving of lineup-lock status in all formats.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (at ATL)

Last week got a little funky for Washington, and that led to some weird counting numbers. They might not score three 40+ yard touchdowns in another month this season, and they did it in just over a half hour of game time on Sunday.

Having said that, this is a full-blown committee in an offense that, when at full strength, has access to arguably the most athletic QB in the game.

That’s not a recipe for success.

• Week 3 snaps: Chris Rodriguez (21), Croskey-Merritt (21), Jeremy McNichols (14)
• Week 3 touches: Rodriguez (11), Croskey-Merritt (9), McNichols (4)

Regardless of who is under center, I expect this to be a hot-hand situation that brings little to the table for us. The Falcons are the third-best post-contact run defense this season, introducing further risk into a backfield that lacks certainty in any matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs CLE)

David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs flipped roles on Monday night in Baltimore, and that was great to see.

It was Montgomery with the chunk plays, and Gibbs with twice as many red zone touches as anyone else in the league for the week. Gibbs carried the ball (22 attempts) and is up to 18 catches on 19 targets for the season, a workload that is nothing short of elite.

Am I thrilled about him facing a defense that is, on average, hitting opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on a short week? No, but I also don’t think there’s a defense in the NFL that can truly shut down Gibbs (top 13 RB in all three games this week).

If you want to fade the Detroit ground game in DFS, be my guest, but you’re playing Gibbs in all season-long formats and not overthinking it.

James Cook | BUF (vs NO)

James Cook ran well last season and demanded a raise this summer.

At the rate he’s going (three top 8 finishes at the position), is it possible that he saved Buffalo money in getting a deal done now as opposed to waiting?

The former Bulldog has scored in every game this season and has 22 trips to the end zone over his past 18 regular-season games. We knew he’d be efficient (career: 5.6 yards per touch), but after scoring on just four of 326 carries during the first two seasons of his NFL career, we wondered about his fantasy ceiling.

Not only does he rank in the top quarter of the league in terms of percentage of carries picking up 5+ yards over the past two seasons (38.7%), but he’s also a top 10 player in terms of red zone touches with 64 across those 19 games.

I don’t think he finishes the season with a 100% catch rate, and 5.4 yards per carry is probably on the optimistic side of things, but the floor that comes with lining up next to Josh Allen is that of an RB1 across all formats.

“I thought the game was over. … I looked down, I looked back up, the game was over, we were winning.”

James Cook discusses opening night for the Bills after their comeback win against the Ravens ✍️

Stream @RichEisenShow on @DisneyPlus and the ESPN App. pic.twitter.com/TsfEPxlvvy

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 23, 2025

On the week of Cook’s 26th birthday, he’s deserving of the “elite” tag. That said, I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t at least mention that the Bills get the Browns and Eagles to round out the fantasy season. They are obviously capable of lighting up any defense in the league, but both of those games are at risk of being impacted by weather and a slow-paced opponent.

I’m not saying you sell after this week, but I am saying you should listen to any offers or consider the roster situations of struggling teams.

Javonte Williams | DAL (vs GB)

History has taught us to be cautious around buying too much Javonte Williams stock, but through three weeks, even with the fumble last week after a 26-yard gain, the metrics look great.

• 40+ snaps in every game
• 2+ red zone touches in every game
• 90.7% gain rate

This feels like a hinge week for Daniel Jones at the quarterback position, and I think it’s a similar spot for Williams against an angry Packers team, in primetime, coming off of a bad loss.

If he gets the vast majority of work in this spot and can be reasonably efficient, we will have no choice but to rank him as a top 15 RB moving forward.

I don’t think it happens.

Not only is this the third-best pre-contact rush defense since the beginning of last season against running backs, but they don’t have to sweat CeeDee Lamb (ankle) dicing them up.

Williams is sitting just outside of my top 20 at the position and profiles as more of a flex than a must-start this week, and I might be too high.

Jaydon Blue | DAL (vs GB)

Another healthy scratch for Jaydon Blue in Week 3, and I think we can move on without much concern as we near bye week involvement.

This is Javonte Williams’ backfield to lose, and Miles Sanders is the clear secondary option. I’m not sold on sustained value from these RBs, given how this offense wants to function, let alone if you start dividing this pie into smaller pieces.

Williams has been very good, and that’s how this backfield is going to pay off: one player dominates the work. Blue opened the season with a chance to be that guy, but that’s not going to be the case.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs MIN)

How limited are the Steelers on the offensive side of the ball?

Jaylen Warren is earning more work despite not succeeding at all. The fourth-year back is averaging 3.1 yards per carry (he has one 10+ yard carry, and 26 of his 43 attempts have gained three or fewer yards), but he’s seen his carry and touch count increase with each passing week.

We are beginning to see why the Steelers had Warren as a specialty option next to Najee Harris for years. I think they’d love to do something similar this year, but the roster doesn’t line up that way.

Warren has cleared eight PPR points as a pass catcher in all three weeks this season, and that’s why he’s a strong flex for me this week despite my efficiency concerns. With a heavy blitz defense coming to town that Aaron Rodgers has faced in the past, this feels like a game that looks a lot like last week in New England (five catches on six targets for 34 yards).

I don’t think it’ll be pretty, but could a screen pass pick up big yards? Maybe a red zone blitz gets Warren in space and results in his second touchdown of the season. The path to a top-12 week isn’t clear as a part of this offense, but I’ll embrace a reasonable floor to play Warren wherever I have him in PPR leagues.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at ATL)

Jeremy McNichols channeled his inner Derrick Henry on the 60-yard touchdown run in the second quarter last week, and that was fun to watch.

It was fun to watch last week.

We are talking about a player drafted in 2017 who has never been trusted with a dozen carries in an NFL game. The outlier play on Sunday was his first career gain of 30+ yards, and nothing in his profile screams “fantasy asset.”

Some versatility in McNichols will be helpful to the committee that is forming in Washington for the Commanders, but I don’t expect it to matter in fantasy circles.

I didn’t submit any bids for him on waivers this week, and I didn’t think too much about it.

Joe Mixon | HOU (vs TEN)

Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and considering he has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he has north of 2,100 NFL touches, he will be tough to trust in any capacity in the short term. The team announced on Aug. 25 that its starting back had been transferred to the reserve/non-football injury list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of this season.

The 29-year-old has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than one that can hit your lineup with limited work. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option, but you’re playing the long game.

Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and has some difficult matchups sprinkled in its schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter nears, he could be a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory (Weeks 15-16, home games against the Cardinals and Raiders).

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at LAR)

Jonathan Taylor has been fantasy’s RB1 in consecutive weeks, and he has every chance to wear that crown at season’s end if this offense continues to be as balanced as it has been during the 3-0 start.

In those two games, Taylor has three touches of 40+ yards, as defenses are unsure of how to defend this backfield with Daniel Jones playing the best ball of his life.

The floor is so high for Taylor that it is hard to see him failing, even if the offense as a whole takes a step back in this tough matchup.

You embraced some uncertainty in Indy during the summer months and are being rewarded handsomely for your effort. Enjoy it!

Jordan Mason | MIN (at PIT)

Sorry, Aaron Jones, but your days of being a lead back are over for this season.

He’ll return eventually, but if we get more performances from Jordan Mason like what he put on tape against the Bengals last weekend, it’ll be as a secondary piece.

Minnesota won this game by 38 points, so there is a level of context that needs to be given, but Mason cashed in two carries inside the five-yard line on his way to a 16-116-2 final stat line.

The zero target is a pain and likely to be a limiting factor moving forward, but the rushing metrics suggest that he’s the rare exception that should be locked into lineups without a second thought as long as Jones is on the shelf.

There have been 49 instances this season in which a running back carried the ball 15 times, and Mason’s Week 3 performance leads the way in terms of percentage of carries that were better than league average in terms of yards gained before contact.

That’s a mouthful of a stat, but it points to something very simple: he and the offensive line are in sync.

Not every week is going to be that easy, but the Vikings draw a Steelers defense that gave up 182 yards with 3 TDs in Week 1 on the ground to the Jets and 105 yards with a score to Kenneth Walker III in a Week 2 loss to the Seahawks.

They slowed New England on Sunday, but part of the reason was the Patriots’ inability to hold onto the ball.

Mason averages 16.5 PPR points per game for his career when exceeding 15 touches, and I like him to make good on that abroad this week. Sign me up for Mason as a top 15 RB in Week 4 … make sure your lineup is set before you go to bed on Saturday if you plan on sleeping in Sunday morning!

Josh Jacobs | GB (at DAL)

There are two ways to look at Josh Jacobs and his production through three weeks.

If you’re a glass-half-empty type, you’re sweating the lack of efficiency (3.1 YPC) and wondering why the usage in the passing game is all over the place.

Glass half-full types are noting that, despite the early-season struggles, Jacobs hasn’t finished a week worse than RB21 this season, and that if that is the worst-case scenario, we are okay.

I lean towards the latter, but certainly understand the former.

Jacobs doesn’t have a run picking up more than 10 yards in consecutive weeks (39 attempts) and has struggled to get into space.

That said, 64 touches is something that most fantasy teams would be thrilled with, especially when tethered to a team we think has the potential to represent the NFC in the big game this season.

This is a great spot for Jacobs to shine and remind us all of his strong showing in 2021. He has no competition for work and is a player who figures to get stronger as the season goes on.

Sit tight.

Kaleb Johnson | PIT (vs MIN)

Kaleb Johnson was technically active for the Steelers on Sunday. Still, he didn’t get on the field a week after his kickoff blunder that likely eliminated the slim chances that he’d work his way into any role at all down the stretch of this season.

I generally preach patience with rookies, especially at a position with the turnover that running back does, but there’s no need to tie up a roster spot in this fashion right now.

Kareem Hunt | KC (vs BAL)

If you look up “backfield committee” in the dictionary, this Chiefs situation is likely to be one of the listed examples.

Neither Kareem Hunt nor Isiah Pacheco is doing anything to earn more work, and this coaching staff appears content to wait until one pops.

Hunt has posted a snap share in the 38-44% range in all three games this season, with 14-17 routes largely being what he is asked to handle.

That means Pacheco is the better play, right? More snaps and carries?

Not so fast.

Hunt punched in a short touchdown on Sunday night and has played three more red zone snaps than Pacheco this season.

I’m convinced that a Chiefs bellcow could return RB2 value without much trouble, but I have no confidence in projecting that until one of them gives me a reason to. You’re holding Hunt as exposure to an offense that we think will peak this winter, but you’re not playing a Kansas City RB in Week 4 if you can help it.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at ARI)

With Zach Charbonnet sidelined, Kenneth Walker ran for as many touchdowns in the first half as he had totaled in his nine games prior. He also set a season high with 16 carries as the Seahawks absolutely steamrolled the Saints.

Wouldn’t that set you up to believe that we are in a ‘wheels up’ situation for a back we all view as ultra talented?

He carried 16 times for 138 yards and averaged more than 8 feet per attempt before contact.

The range of outcomes on a per-carry basis might be as broad for Walker as they are for any player in the league, and I’m not sure the matchup even matters.

With a profile like that, I need volume to be comfortable, which is obviously easier to achieve if his backup/committee member is out.

I’ll rank Walker over Charbonnet most weeks because in that flex conversation, I don’t mind taking on some risk if it means access to top-15 upside. Still, there’s no denying that this is a committee where both backs are talented, but neither is especially valuable.

Kyren Williams | LAR (vs IND)

I really think you’re on borrowed time with Kyren Williams.

His claim to fantasy fame has been volume and scoring looks, something that he’s had access to this season (60 touches and two scores).

Sort of.

Blake Corum was involved in Los Angeles’ second drive last week in Philadelphia and opened the third as the running back.

The usage of RB2 didn’t really matter because Williams’ volume was still strong as a result of how this game played out, but the early snaps were interesting.

So was the fact that his touchdown catch on Sunday came with Corum on the field and faked a handoff on the play.

This will never be a committee. Still, if 10% of Williams’ work dries up and Matthew Stafford continues to funnel valuable looks to Davante Adams inside the red zone, Williams has more paths to failure than he has in years past.

He’s plenty viable, I just don’t think there’s a path to special. For the forward-thinking, he gets a Lions defense that looked solid on Monday night in Week 15 and then has to travel to face a strong Seattle defense for Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 16.

That’s a physically demanding stretch when it’s do-or-die time for your fantasy roster.

Miles Sanders | DAL (vs GB)

Miles Sanders has everything moving in the right direction, but barring an injury to Javonte Williams, he’s not going to be able to carve out the type of volume in this pass-centric offense that ever has him on the flex radar.

Miles Sanders’ snap data

• Week 1 at PHI: 8 snaps (14.3% share)
  4 carries and 1 catch
• Week 2 vs. NYG: 19 snaps (22.9% share)
  5 carries and 2 catches
• Week 3 at CHI: 24 snaps (35.8% share)
  9 carries and 3 catches

On the surface, his 5.1 yards per touch looks good, but remove that outlier 49-yard gain in Week 1, and we are talking about a secondary RB picking up under 3.2 yards per touch.

There’s a world in which he could be doing what Williams is doing if given the lead role, but he’s unlikely to earn that role without some help. Sanders is to be viewed as a low-end handcuff with the contingent value of a fringe RB2.

Najee Harris | LAC (at NYG)

In the second quarter on Sunday, Najee Harris went down with a non-contact injury that we were all able to diagnose before the broadcast even went to commercial.

The torn Achilles ends the season for a 27-year-old who will miss his first game in five seasons this weekend. The door is wide open for Omarion Hampton now, and he should have every opportunity to succeed in this game as a near-touchdown road favorite.

Let this injury remind us that every running back could get hurt. Harris was considered an ironman, and after one misstep, he’s gone for 12 months, with his future in question. Avoiding “injury-prone” running backs is only something I do if I feel the offense he plays for will manage his work in an effort to keep him healthy.

In instances like Christian McCaffrey, where we universally buy the talent and are aware that the coaching staff believes in a singular role when active, I’m all for being more aggressive than your league mates.

Nick Chubb | HOU (vs TEN)

C.J. Stroud can’t find space behind this offensive line, and he’s running away from it, so how do you think Nick Chubb feels when he’s given a carry and told to run at the problem?

To be honest, he’s done well to average 4.1 yards per carry this season, and with five catches over the past two weeks, there’s a path to flex appeal in this good matchup (Titans: the worst post-contact rush defense in the league this season).

But the ceiling is low. The veteran has touched the ball 12-14 times in every game this season, and the Texans seem to be in no rush to extend him further. The lack of volume has kept Chubb outside the top 35 at the position in the two weeks he failed to score, and that’s likely to continue being the story.

You’re betting on a touchdown if you’re flexing Chubb, and there are worse weeks to do that than when facing the struggling Titans.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (vs NYJ)

We might be onto something here.

There were whispers during the preseason that the sixth-round bruiser (6’2″, 225-pounder) would absorb enough work to be on our flex radar by the second half of the season and, after a slow start, we might just get there.

In the first half, Ollie Gordon II and De’Von Achane split 12 carries right down the middle, with the kid getting the call on a two-yard plunge that resulted in his first professional score (36 rushing TDs during his three seasons at Oklahoma State).

His size is his calling card, and that looks to be what the Dolphins are most interested in leveraging. With 13% of his collegiate touches coming via the reception (7.3 yards per catch), there’s potentially more versatility than meets the eye given his size, but 75% of his snaps as a pro up to this point have come on the first two downs, and that appears to be sticky.

Gordon still doesn’t need to be on your mind when locking in your starting lineup, but he does need to be rostered across the board. The Dolphins are winless, and if they don’t make some noise over the next two weeks (they play at Carolina next week), this could well be a team that turns its sights onto the future, something they very much would like Gordon to be a part of (Weeks 6-11: Chargers, Browns, Falcons, Ravens, Bills, and Commanders).

Omarion Hampton | LAC (at NYG)

I think the 25 touches last week for Omarion Hampton is probably a bit of a red herring the same way 16 targets for Hollywood Brown was in Week 1: a significant offensive piece goes down in game and a single player absorbs that entire role.

But maybe not?

Hampton turned those touches into 129 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos, a defense I certainly fear more than that of the Giants.

Najee Harris is done for the season, and while I think we get a decent idea this week of how much work Jim Harbaugh wants to put on his rookie’s shoulders, it’s important to remember that this is going to be a work in progress.

This offensive line isn’t very good, and it was just two weeks ago that Hampton touched the ball just nine times in a win over the Raiders.

Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson are the two running backs expected to see their value soar this week, and I think that’s right. I have both ranked as top 20 options at the position, though I do lean slightly in favor of Hampton for the rest of the season, if for no other reason than the Chargers don’t really have anyone left to push him.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (at DET)

It took forever to get Quinshon Judkins under contract this summer, but it’s taken very little time for the Browns to commit to him.

In their upset win over the Packers, Judkins handled 18 of their 19 rushing attempts on his way to an RB11 finish. That’s more optimistic than I’m willing to be moving forward, mainly because I don’t think Cleveland can muddy up a game in Detroit the way they did on Sunday at home, but the depth chart is clear for the Browns when it comes to their backfield.

Judkins, in a tough spot as part of a bad offense, is my RB26 this week. There will be better opportunities for him moving forward, and I anticipate having him ranked as a fine RB2 more often than not.

Rachaad White | TB (vs PHI)

For my money, Rachaad White is running well. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry in his limited work, and that makes him an appealing handcuff back to Bucky Irving.

We’ve known for years that White is a plus-option as a receiver out of the backfield, so if there is efficiency to chase on the ground, there’s a clear path to top 20 status should Irving go down.

But it’s that last part that is most important.

“Should Irving go down.”

Even with him underwhelming at times this season, Irving has stayed on the field. White has yet to play one-third of the snaps in a game, and I really don’t see that changing.

We are looking at a top-five handcuff, but not a player with a realistic path to starting lineups outside of an injury.

Ray Davis | BUF (vs NO)

If you blinked on Thursday night, it’s possible you completely missed Ray Davis being on the field against the Dolphins. The backup running back that impressed at times a season ago played just four snaps, earning one useless target in the process.

Buffalo was favored by nearly two touchdowns in that game and is installed as a big favorite again in this spot, but you’re really overthinking things if you’re banking at all on Davis’ garbage time production.

With just 11 touches (25 yards from scrimmage) this season and the Bills playing Ty Johnson for 15 snaps against Miami, it’s blatantly obvious that he’s nothing more than a James Cook handcuff.

That’s fine, and I don’t mind the idea of holding a player who is one injury away from 12-15 touches on a strong offense, but there certainly isn’t a clear path to standalone value, something we thought had a chance of happening this summer.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs CAR)

Rhamondre Stevenson has struggled with ball security for a while now, and after he put his second carry on the deck last week, my TreVeyon Henderson alarm started beeping.

A dull beep, but it was there. It could be heard.

Nothing really changed in the short term for the Patriots. They went about their way for the remainder of the first half, even trusting their lead back with a fourth-and-short, but when Stevenson lost a red zone carry, that dull beep turned into an impossible-to-ignore roar.

Stevenson fumbled six times in 2021, losing three of them and causing us to lose our minds when he coughed up one this summer. Antonio Gibson saw his role increase for a minute on the drive following Stevenson’s second turnover of the week, but then he caught the “fumbleitis” and gave away one of his own.

The coaching staff was clear following the game that Stevenson is an important part of this team and that they need to restore his confidence.

We’ve been waiting for this moment, and it seems that the time is finally here. Of course, the Pats could elect to use this ideal matchup to help Stevenson get his mojo back, but I’m going to lean on the most dangerous assumption we can make instead.

Rational coaching.

At the very least, even if you aren’t ready to anoint Henderson as a star, you can’t go back to Stevenson as even a flex this week. I’d rather plug in Bhayshul Tuten if we are picking committee backs because I at least like his trajectory and the short-yardage role.

RJ Harvey | DEN (vs CIN)

This summer, I invested quite a bit in RJ Harvey. I viewed it as EITHER a bet against JK Dobbins or a bet on Harvey himself. That either the rookie would earn the role outright or that it could fall into his lap courtesy of an injury-prone veteran ahead of him on the depth chart.

Well, neither has occurred, and now I think the second-round pick needs an injury for him to have a shot at mattering at all.

Sean Payton has felt zero obligation to get Harvey reps (sub-32% snap share in all three weeks) and, outside of one big run against the Titans in Week 1, he really hasn’t proven his coach wrong in questioning his readiness to produce at this level.

In the loss to the Chargers last week, 10 of Harvey’s 13 snaps resulted in routes run. I do think there is top-20 RB status in his profile if Dobbins goes down, but I just don’t see him getting a chance to showcase that in a meaningful way as things stand right now.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (at TB)

This isn’t what we signed up for from our first-round pick after a gnarly historic campaign.

• 3.3 yards per carry
• 0 touches gaining 17+ yards

Is it possible we were worried about the wrong things this summer?

Philadelphia isn’t handling its star RB with kid gloves (18+ carries and 2+ catches in all the contests), but the explosion hasn’t been there yet.

I’m not worried.

Last week was a goofy game script-wise, and Week 2 came against a very strong Chiefs defense. I’m encouraged by the involvement in the pass game (12 targets) and am plenty comfortable in tying my ship to a player like this that ranks fifth at the position in red zone touches.

Our free Trade Analyzer won’t ding him much, but if there is a panic-stricken 0-3 manager with Barkley, why not offer 85 cents on the dollar and see where the conversation goes?

Tony Pollard | TEN (at HOU)

Among the 28 running backs with at least 30 carries this season, Tony Pollard ranks 21st in red zone touches, 22nd in percentage of carries gaining 10+ yards, 24th in percentage of expected points earned, and 25th in our custom Elusive Rating.

He’s been as bad as your eyes are telling you.

This game features two of the worst lines in the league, and I don’t suspect the sledding to get any easier against the fourth-best per-carry run defense since the beginning of last season.

He benefited from a review that put the Titans on the one-inch line last week after a Chimere Dike touchdown was overturned, and I suspect it’ll take a similar level of fortune to make him lineup worthy in Week 4.

In my rankings, I have Quinshon Judkins and Jacory Croskey-Merritt ranked higher.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at SF)

I thought the Texans let Travis Etienne score late last week, as the Jags were in position to potentially melt the clock and win the game at the buzzer with a field goal, but all points count the same in fantasy, and that was a godsend for Etienne managers.

Outside of the 10-yard score, Jacksonville’s bellcow had 17 opportunities (rushes plus targets) and had 4.6 PPR points.

Not ideal.

Brayshun Tuten has scored in consecutive weeks and seems to very much be closing the gap in this backfield. That said, this is still Etienne’s job to lose, and against a Nick Bosa-less 49ers defense, I think he’ll be just fine.

I think we see 15-17 touches on Sunday for 75-ish yards. There are touchdown concerns if this passing game is going to continue to struggle and Tuten is going to handle short-yardage situations, but the raw volume of chances to score fantasy points should be enough to justify plugging in Etienne as an RB2 across all formats.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs CAR)

The stage is set.

The Patriots host a Panthers team that is allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per RB carry since the beginning of last season, and their dynamic rookie has as much of a chance to earn future work as we could possibly ask for.

New England running backs, not named TreVeyon Henderson, couldn’t hold onto the ball last week. While the postgame discourse centered on the value of Stevenson remaining involved, his actions were loud following his second lost fumble of the afternoon.

• Henderson: 26 offensive snaps (9 rushes)
• Antonio Gibson: 6 (2 rushes, 1 fumble)
• Stevenson: 5 (0 rushes)

Henderson has 30 touches this season, and while we’ve yet to see a true splash play, some of the cuts and wiggle that made him special in college have been on display.

He’s caught all 11 of his targets this season, and after the coaching staff admitted that a Stevenson wheel route was initially designed for Henderson, I’m confident that there is a package of creative plays to get this explosive talent in space.

Both he and Omarion Hampton have major opportunities in front of them this week, and both rank inside my top 20 at the position as a result.

Trey Benson | ARI (vs SEA)

James Conner’s season is over, and that opens the door for Trey Benson, a 2024 third-round pick who averaged 6.1 yards per carry in college and scored on 7.6% of his rush attempts.

The Cardinals believe in this player and want him to be the running back of the future, which gives me confidence that we are looking at him picking up around 85% of Conner’s role.

This is a tough spot to debut as the lead man (Seahawks: second-fewest yards allowed per carry after contact to opposing running backs this season), but I think the versatility can save the day for fantasy purposes.

Benson is currently my RB25 for the week, ranking ahead of Javory Croskey-Merritt, Quinshon Judkins, Tony Pollard, and David Montgomery if you are forced into making a decision.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (at HOU)

Tyjae Spears (ankle) ran reasonably hard last year when given the chance, and by earning 15 targets in his last three games, there’s something here. What “something” means isn’t clear, but this former third-round pick is in a key evaluation year — midway through his rookie deal as Tony Pollard’s guaranteed money expires. He’s part of a team trying to climb from rock bottom with its new franchise quarterback in place.

I’m comfortable making the second-half-of-the-season case for Spears (currently on injured reserve with an ankle injury), but not before that. The Tulane product has averaged under 10 touches per game for his career, and that’s the role I’m projecting for the short term.

RELATED: Tyjae Spears Injury Update: When Can Fantasy Managers Expect the Tennessee Titans RB Back?

If you have room on your bench/IR, stashing Spears is the play, understanding that your patience could be rewarded, but outright aggression likely won’t be. Tony Pollard is handling a ton of work (38 rushes through two weeks) and not showing much upside (long run: 10 yards).

Spears offers cheap exposure to the Cam Ward experience that you can ditch at a moment’s notice if the roster space becomes more valuable and is used differently.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs WAS)

You’re reaching if you want Tyler Allgeier as a plug-in, get-me-12 touches flex as it is, especially if the game script works well without him. He touched the ball twice during the beat down that Atlanta received in Carolina on Sunday, and this floor/ceiling combination just isn’t appealing for an inconsistent team like this.

Allgeier is a very valuable handcuff to Bijan Robinson, but that’s it.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs LAC)

They tell young kids that you can’t lose your job due to injury, and in amateur athletics, I’m all here for that messaging.

This isn’t that.

Tyrone Tracy is expected to miss up to a month with a dislocated shoulder, and much like Aaron Jones in Minnesota, I’m not the least bit confident that the role he’s leaving behind is remotely comparable to what he’ll get when he returns.

I’m keeping Tracy rostered if for no other reason than Cam Skattebo runs like a maniac and that carries injury potential of its own, but with this franchise giving the keys to Jaxson Dart, the youth movement is underway, and while Tracy isn’t old even by running back standards, he’s more than two years older than Skattebo, and that matters.

Tracy is a good player, but at 3.1 yards per carry this year, it’s not as if what he’s doing can’t be replicated.

Woody Marks | HOU (vs TEN)

Woody Marks’ growth through three weeks is interesting, but I can’t get behind it meaning much, given the broken nature of this offensive line.

The rookie trailed Nick Chubb by only a single snap over the weekend while running more routes than the veteran and even getting a red zone touch.

I’m not ruling out a time-share situation in Houston (six carries and a catch on Sunday after registering six carries and one catch through the first two weeks total), but I am ruling out my interest in such a situation.

I’m not sure a singular bellcow in this offense would crack my top 20 on a consistent basis, so the thinner you slice each role, the less likely they are to approach my top 30, even in a great matchup.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at ARI)

Zach Charbonnet missed the second game of his career on Sunday with a foot injury, a contest he nearly took part in after reportedly getting a good pre-game workout in.

Kenneth Walker III was featured in a great spot against the Saints on Sunday, a golden opportunity for him to assume the lead role moving forward.

No dice.

He scored twice, but 16 carries for 38 yards against maybe the worst team in the sport?

The Seattle coaching staff has made it clear that they want to operate in a committee, and that has me ranking both of their running backs as viable flex plays with a wide range of outcomes.

I do have Walker ranked ahead of Charbonnet this week, and that will likely be the case more often than not. Charbonnet was RB26 in Week 1 thanks to a short touchdown, but he doesn’t yet have a target or a rush gaining more than seven yards.

Monitor this situation, but I’m actively making excuses to not play Charbonnet at less than full strength against a Cardinals defense that held Christian McCaffrey to 52 yards on 17 attempts over the weekend.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (at TB)

A.J. Brown reminded us all of what he is capable of last weekend against the Rams, turning his 10 targets into 109 yards and a touchdown, where he just appeared to be unguardable.

That’s who he is, and that’s why we get so angry when he sees nine targets for 35 yards through the first two weeks.

That’s the yin and yang, though. The Eagles weren’t playing their desired script, and that was what fueled the big game from their WR1. If they, the Super Bowl champions who have won 19 of their past 20 games, dictate tempo, Brown’s stock is volatile in our game.

I tend to shy away from players like this. NFL teams don’t care about fantasy, but when their desires for a particular player align with ours, I usually invest. In a perfect world, I think the Eagles want an 80/20 rush/pass split, and that naturally would put all of their pass catchers in a tough spot.

But you can’t sell now. You can’t sell a fringe WR1 after one big week. The Bucs could push the Eagles this week, and that could result in consecutive big games for Brown.

Then you pounce.

After this week, Philadelphia could very well control four straight games entering their Week 9 bye. If there is going to be a window to sell, it starts Sunday afternoon on the heels of two big games and vibes riding high after the slow start.

I wouldn’t force such a trade; we are still talking about a physically imposing player capable of taking over any game at a moment’s notice, but I’m planting the seed.

Adam Thielen | MIN (at PIT)

It was a heart-warming story late this summer when Adam Thielen came home to Minnesota for what figures to be his swan song (he turned 35 years old in August).

Sadly, we are being reminded that “heart-warming” and “fantasy fulfilling” are not the same thing. Thielen has managed to turn his six targets this season into just 26 yards and is coming off his second catchless game of the season.

The veteran never had much upside in this offense, and he could be played off the field outright with Jordan Addison returning from suspension this week.

Hopefully, Thielen hasn’t been eating up a spot on your roster, but if he’s been lingering, you shouldn’t think twice about making a move. Any move, really.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs CLE)

The list of receivers I’d rather have than Amon-Ra St. Brown for the remainder of the season is short.

Heck, it might be a name or two more than a list.

Detroit’s star receiver again looked the part of a game-breaker on Monday night, exposing single coverage in the red zone for a score, this coming a week after a hat trick against the Bears.

He now has more receiving yards in his first 69 professional games than Calvin Johnson did, and I don’t mention that name in Lion receiver conversations lightly.

It’s a different type of dominance, but he takes over the game all the same, and with Jameson Williams seemingly being pigeon-holed into the deep role, St. Brown is going to continue to run wild in the middle of the field as a driving force for one of the most efficient offenses in the sport.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (vs JAX)

The 49ers are hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023.

By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.

In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.

This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trying to trade for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?

I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up. We are nearing the point in the process where a low-ball offer could be mutually beneficial, so keep your head on a swivel!

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at SF)

I wish I had an answer for you, I really do.

The 46-yard catch late helped Brian Thomas save himself from the worst game of his season, but another game with a sub-35% catch rate and no real scoring chances through the pass game isn’t exactly what the fantasy doctor ordered.

The rushing touchdown in Week 1 has accounted for 27.2% of his fantasy points this season, an absolutely bizarre note for a player who looked like the next big thing after his standout rookie campaign.

We are long done with Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins as lineup locks, or even rosterable players in most situations, but they both have top-40 weekly finishes this season, a claim that BTJ cannot make.

Whether this is a Trevor Lawrence thing, a Liam Coen thing, a Thomas thing, or some combination of the three, this is clearly a broken situation that needs to prove itself to us before we keep burning a starting lineup spot on it.

I would have never thought that Quentin Johnston over Thomas in Week 4 would be an easy call or that an underwhelming Matthew Golden over Thomas would be a serious question at this point, but that’s where we are.

I have Thomas ranked as WR37, and I’d be thrilled to be wrong. But at this point, I’ll be late to the come-up instead of being in front of it.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (at HOU)

Young quarterbacks come with growing pains, and it really is that simple.

Cam Ward’s two touchdown passes have both gone to Elic Ayomanor, and if Calvin Ridley isn’t going to get the future dangerous looks that this offense offers, he’s on the roster bubble in most leagues.

I’m still holding, mainly because I think that there’s a world in which Ward develops on the fly and Ridley’s stock increases with time. He does have a 25-yard grab in back-to-back games, so there are at least some breadcrumbs.

As for Week 4, you can’t justify going this direction in any capacity. Ridley doesn’t have a top 50 finish this season, and his current catch rate (38.1%) is lower than the worst free-throw season from Shaquille O’Neal.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (at DET)

Cedric Tillman caught five of eight targets for 52 yards and a score in Week 1 against the Bengals.

He’s caught five of 10 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown since, and let’s not forget that the score was an uncoordinated play by the defender that deflected an errant pass in his direction.

Distancing yourself from this Cleveland offense isn’t a bad idea, especially with the Lions flying high after sacking Lamar Jackson seven times on Monday, tying the most of the former MVP’s career.

I’d keep Tillman rostered across the board because his proximity to targets is too high. He’s on a team we expect to be playing from behind that is currently starting a quarterback who isn’t shy about cutting it loose.

But you can’t play him right now.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs GB)

Jerry Jones left the door open for CeeDee Lamb to be placed on IR, and that’s obviously a major concern.

The ankle injury is one thing, but things could get really ugly, really fast in Dallas. They are currently 1-2 and in a brutal spot this week. In theory, they have two winnable games after this (Jets and Panthers), but what if Lamb’s absence short-circuits this offense and the defense can’t get off the field?

The Cowboys’ bye doesn’t come until Week 10, and it sounds as if Lamb will be back before then, but he’s missing plus-matchups after this week and potentially returning for a Week 12-16 stretch that is as brutal as it gets in the league.

Lamb is an elite talent, but I do worry about the team being cautious with a superstar who will earn a base salary of $25 million or more in both 2026 and 2027.

Chris Godwin | TB (vs PHI)

The Bucs activated Godwin off the PUP list on August 21 (Week 7, fractured ankle), but it wasn’t until early September that he returned to practice. The middle of October remains the current estimation for his return to action, but this is a situation that should be monitored weekly, if not daily.

This, of course, was baked into the draft-day price tag on the 29-year-old. Unless something changes drastically, this will be the sixth time in seven years that Godwin has missed multiple games. But there is hope that the cautious rehab approach will result in him peaking at the right time for both the Bucs and his loyal fantasy managers.

Tampa Bay has a well-positioned Week 9 bye, which could allow Godwin to test his body to its limits in the second month of the season, knowing that an off week isn’t too far off.

RELATED: Chris Godwin Injury Update: What’s the Latest on the Buccaneers WR, and Will He Play in Week 4?

In any event, you drafted him with the hope that he’d be a 1,000-yard pace player for a seventh straight season with consistent volume for you when he hits the field, and we have no real reason to think he won’t be.

His lack of touchdowns was a concern heading into last season, but five of his 50 catches in 2021 resulted in scores, giving us hope that we are looking at a WR2 down the stretch. The Bucs close the season with about as favorable a schedule as anyone in the league, giving him an even better chance to impact your fantasy season massively, even if he’s not doing that in the first month.

Chris Olave | NO (at BUF)

The NFL’s leader in targets is somehow not one of the 177 players this season with a 15-yard catch.

We were aware of the limitations in New Orleans, but did we think things could be this bad for Chris Olave?

I know I didn’t.

The ability to earn targets at this rate demands our attention. Maybe a future QB change will unlock what I think is a top 15 receiver in the league in terms of raw talent. Still, until we get a reason to adjust our expectations, Olave is relegated to fantasy benches, only to be used when upside options elsewhere have been fully explored.

Christian Kirk | HOU (vs TEN)

Christian Kirk made his 2025 debut on Sunday after missing the first two weeks with a hamstring strain, and I thought he looked healthy.

In the loss to the Jags, he ran a route on 33 of his 40 snaps and trailed only Nico Collins on this team in targets earned. With him absent, Jayden Higgins led non-Collins pass catchers with 60 yards, thus leaving the door open for him to assume WR2 duties.

Kirk’s eight targets gained only 25 yards, and that’s obviously sub-optimal, but that’s also part of being a member of this team in 2025. I think better times are ahead, and the role is his to lose, but I can’t justify starting him just yet.

Could he light up the porous Titans?

He certainly could, and if he does, I’ll be thrilled. It could add a player to the WR3 mix, and with the Cardinals/Raiders on the Week 15-16 schedule, I’m looking to win the war with Kirk more than the Week 4 battle.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (at ARI)

Fantasy football is complicated enough, so there’s no need to overthink this one.

Don’t do it.

Cooper Kupp was productive in Week 2 against a Steelers defense that isn’t as stout as we thought, but that’s it. In the two games sandwiching that Pittsburgh game (7-90-0), he failed to reach 25 air yards and finished under 6.0 PPR points.

We aren’t getting New York Jets Sam Darnold these days, but we also aren’t getting the Minnesota version, and thus, two pass catchers aren’t going to come along for the ride every week.

You’re playing Jaxon Smith-Njigba every week without a second thought. If you want to roll the dice on one of Seattle’s running backs, be my guest, but that’s all the interest I have in this team.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs CIN)

Courtland Sutton was a top-26 fantasy receiver in nine of 12 games to conclude last season, showcasing strong consistency while riding out an impressive rookie season from Bo Nix.

Entering this season, we weren’t sure about Sutton’s ceiling, but we felt good about the floor. As it turns out, Denver’s WR1 is a random number generator with two good and one bad outcome through three weeks.

• Week 1 vs TEN: 18.1 points (6-61-1 on 9 targets)
• Week 2 at IND: 1.6 points (1-6-0 on 4 targets)
• Week 3 at LAC: 23.8 points (6-118-1 on 8 targets)

Will water find its level and give us some semblance of consistency moving forward?

I don’t think so.

Nix is experiencing some second-year regression that we’ve seen happen before, as the NFL reacts to a year’s worth of film. As long as that continues, I think the Sutton production will be spotty.

Even if you like Nix moving forward, there certainly looks like more target competition on this roster than what we saw a year ago. Troy Franklin has more catches than Sutton this season, while Marvin Mims has seen a few opportunities, and Evan Engram can’t be worse moving forward.

Sutton got home for you last week courtesy of a busted coverage that resulted in a 52-yard score. On the one hand, plays like that don’t always happen. On the other hand, the Cincinnati defense is also plenty capable of giving up splash plays like that (only the Cowboys have allowed more TD passes thrown 20+ yards since the beginning of last season).

Sutton is a low-end WR2 for me, boasting enough volume to stabilize his value in a spot like this while having access to the slate-breaking play.

I have Sutton ranked ahead of other big talents with iffy QB play, the Tyreek Hills, Tee Higgins, and DK Metcalfs of the world.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs LAC)

The thought process here is simple.

Darius Slayton averages 15 yards per catch for his career, and the QB situation in New York is murky at best. Nothing we’ve seen from the seventh-year burner this season demands he be rostered (eight targets on 118 routes), but if this offense gets a makeover sooner than later, why not have some cheap investment at the end of your bench?

Regardless of who is under center, I want to see it before flexing a boom-or-bust player like Slayton. That said, if the situation is likely to change, why not hold and see?

Darnell Mooney | ATL (vs WAS)

Danrell Mooney already has more end zone looks this season than last, and we saw him used in a high-upside, vertical role last week against the Panthers (126.5 air yards, a number he topped just three times in 2021).

In theory, this profile looks good, but the deeper you get into your bet on strong Michael Penix play, the more risk you take.

I have no problem with rostering Mooney, but he won’t be in the flex conversation until we see some consistency from the QB position in Atlanta. In the scope of Week 4, I’d rather play Calvin Ridley/Chris Olave types where I can at least use volume as a path of overcoming quarterback limitations.

Davante Adams | LAR (vs IND)

I know we are four seasons removed at this point, but man, what the Packers wouldn’t give to have a WR1 like Davante Adams on their roster.

The 32-year-old brought in a 44-yard pass from Matthew Stafford against the Eagles last week, and after struggling in the opener (WR41), he’s the eighth-best wide receiver in fantasy.

I don’t think he’s a top 10 player the rest of the way, but I do think he’s paused any concerns of Father Time and is to be locked into lineups as long as Stafford is under center.

Adams is clearly the red-zone threat on this team, and with Puka Nacua helping them matriculate the ball up and down the field, that role is going to hold value.

This week will serve as a good litmus test for the Colts’ defense, but I think they struggle to stop Adams’ athletic profile from making at least one splash play.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (at KC)

DeAndre Hopkins is going to make an impactful play either late in this regular season that impacts the playoff race or during the postseason.

That I feel good about.

I’ve been surprised with how spry the 33-year-old looks when given the opportunity, but the Ravens are smart and are managing his reps (exactly two targets in all three games).

Hopkins scored in each of the first two weeks this season and forced an end zone DPI on Monday night. When Baltimore calls his number, it’s almost only for high-impact plays, and that gives them access to upside that they’ve lacked in the past.

That said, I don’t think there’s enough meat on this bone to demand we roster him. If you want access to this offense on your bench, Rashod Bateman is on the field much more and would be my preferred option.

Hopkins can still make plays, but in a game of opportunity, he’s not passing the sniff test, and I don’t expect that to change as we approach the dog days of the season.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at ATL)

Deebo Samuel is a unique player, but you can only ask him to do so much.

He opened Week 3 with a 69-yard kick return to put Washington in position and handled three carries (Weeks 1-2: one total carry) as the Commanders try to settle on who they want to get labeled as their RB1.

Hopefully, Jayden Daniels is back, but now Terry McLaurin is dealing with a quad injury, potentially putting Samuel in a spot to adapt again.

The Swiss Army nature of his skill set is great, but as he ages, this jack of all trades might be a master of none.

Over the past two weeks, his nine receptions have gained just 55 yards, and if the YAC ability starts to fade, I’m worried.

The sheer number of ways to touch the ball in this specific matchup (Atlanta is the second most blitz-happy defense in the league so far, and if Samuel is one broken tackle away from daylight, there’s upside to chase) have him at the back-end of my WR2 rankings, a tier he’ll share with McLaurin should everything check out medically.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs CAR)

Entering draft season, every year, I pick a boring receiver that I want to add to the end of my roster. These picks never get much attention in the room, but if it’s Week 9 and I’m battling through three injuries and two bye weeks, you know how good 10 PPR points sounds?

DeMario Douglas and Wan’Dale Robinson were my two targets in that mold this summer, and to say the results have been drastically different would be an egregious understatement.

This season, Douglas has turned 13 targets into 13 yards.

I was not under the assumption that Drake Maye would be an overly consistent passer this season, especially early on, but he has proven to be. He’s been consistent in his lack of interest in getting Douglas the ball with any sort of space.

Fortunately, that’s become obvious before bye weeks start, and I need to reach for depth. Douglas should be nowhere near lineups or rosters for that matter, right now, even in deep PPR formats.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (at TB)

As someone in DeVonta Smith’s general size range, I’m always impressed with what he can do in contested situations. Against the Chiefs in Week 2, we saw him make a splash play in traffic, and over the weekend against the Rams, he beat press man coverage for a four-yard score to give Philadelphia the lead.

The risks with him are the same they are with any member of this passing game: volume. That’s not an issue that will be solved unless the Eagles start falling behind in games, but with a single-digit aDOT for the first time in three seasons, I trust Smith as my WR3 every week with the thought that he’ll be efficient with the looks he does get.

DJ Moore | CHI (at LV)

DJ Moore was supposed to be the target, earning safety net in Chicago while the young options developed.

That may have been the plan, but is Rome Odunze already ready to be a star?

It certainly looks that way, and if Colston Loveland can grow with time, Moore’s opportunity count could shrink further (7.1% third-down target share this season).

There is one note that should help comfort you in the short term. In Week 1, before the Bears were aware of just how productive Odunze could be, Moore posted a 17.8 aDOT. In the two weeks since, his mark sits at 6.8, and that’s something you should be happy with.

Odunze is clearly the better athlete at this point, and the shortening of Moore’s routes means that Ben Johnson still wants him involved.

That could change if the TE room earns more of those looks, but I think, moving forward, something like 4-6 catches for 50-70 yards is a reasonable expectation. Moore is a PPR flex who might be able to be acquired on the cheap with just 135 receiving yards through three weeks.

DK Metcalf | PIT (vs MIN)

I’m thrilled that DK Metcalf got his first deep target of the season on Sunday, but I’m still shaky on his long-term projection in this offense.

It’s clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts him, but it’s not clear that Rodgers has a ton of great football left in the tank.

The tandem connected on a 12-yard fade early in the second quarter last week, and that’s the sort of thing that breathes life into Metcalf’s stock, but I think you’re walking an awfully fine line in this low-octane offense.

Metcalf doesn’t have a top 25 finish on his 2022 resume, and if I had to project it forward, I’d say he has more weeks like that than ones where you’re glad you played him.

Among the healthy players, Metcalf is the one I’m most rooting for to have a big game this week so that I can get out of this business at a reasonable price.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at DAL)

Romeo Doubs has shown some flashes this season, and I personally think that Matthew Golden is on a promising trajectory.

That puts Dontayvion Wicks’ stock very much in question.

The Packers get this plus matchup, but they then go on bye, and I’m not overly interested in holding onto a player like Wicks through the off week unless it’s him that victimizes this leaky Cowboys secondary.

I’m not betting on that being the case, but I do think you’re wise to at least hold him through this game, given the potential of this offense.

We are nearing a whole year since the last time Wicks hit 50 receiving yards in a game, and his 9.5% target share inside the opponents’ 40-yard line this season doesn’t exactly come with much scoring potential.

If Wicks busts this week, I think you cut ties. If he shows well for himself, I’m still not overly optimistic, but he’ll at least be deserving of a roster spot as a part of a Green Bay offense that is democratic when it comes to targets.

Drake London | ATL (vs WAS)

I’m not sounding the alarm on Drake London just yet, but I’m making note of where the alarm is.

London hasn’t cleared 55 receiving yards in a game this season and has more fumbles than touchdowns. I’m encouraged by the 27 targets through three weeks, and he’s clearly the player this pass game is slanted toward (four targets on the first drive last week), but I don’t care about the ingredients in the fridge if you don’t know what to do with them.

I expected more from Michael Penix in the early going this season (one touchdown on 99 pass attempts); it really is that simple. Not all young QBs follow the same developmental curve, and that’s why I’m not yet seeking trade partners, but I’m certainly concerned.

This isn’t a bad get-right spot, and with the bye on deck, there’s a decent chance that everything is as it should be by the middle of October. You’re playing London this week, and we can circle back ahead of the Week 6 primetime battle against the Bills for a value check.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (vs PHI)

We are nearing the “how high is too high” discussion when it comes to the ranking of Emeka Egbuka.

Here is a list of receivers to start their first season with 12.5+ PPR points in Weeks 1-2-3 since 2010:

• Stefon Diggs (2015)
• Sterling Shepard (2016)
• Terry McLaurin (2019)
• Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
• Emeka Egbuka (2025)

He got there in what has become a standard highlight fashion. His 6-85 game on Sunday against the Jets was highlighted by a one-handed catch that falls harmlessly out of bounds for the majority of receivers in this league.

Mike Evans (hamstring) didn’t need to get hurt for you to feel good about Egbuka’s stock, but I don’t think trading Chris Godwin for Evans is a bad thing in terms of the rookie’s projectable production moving forward.

He’s the clear-cut top option on an aggressive offense that is exploring how to use its new toy best. I’m downright giddy to see what is schemed up to keep him this involved as defenses begin to shade coverages in his direction: we are talking about a player that can win at all three levels, and he’ll be asked to prove that.

It’s early, but Egbuka is on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards and double-digit scores. Only four times in the 2000s has a rookie reached both of those thresholds: Mike Evans/Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Ja’Marr Chase (2021), and Brian Thomas Jr. (2025).

He’s already a locked-in starter, and I think his 22.3% target share is far more likely to rise than regress. It’s rare to hit this big (cost-adjusted) in a fantasy draft. You did the hard part already; now all you have to do is build around this massive hit and earn yourself a trophy!

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at MIA)

Garrett Wilson is off to a great start in 2025. He’s earned 30 targets through three weeks, has a pair of top 10 performances on his resume, and has seen his Jets play in much more offensively friendly environments than expected.

I’ll bite at least for the next month.

The Dolphins have allowed the third-most yards per deep pass this season (17.7 yards), and Wilson is a near lock to see at least a few targets down the field. Miami also has the type of offense that could make this a sneaky entertaining game, and that’s only a good thing for the value of Wilson, a player who had more receiving yards last week than any of his teammates have this season.

After this week, Dallas comes to town, and before the Week 9 bye, dates with Carolina and Cincinnati are on the books.

This offense has flaws (Tyrod Taylor threw 36 passes in a game that saw 56 points scored, and the Jets didn’t have a play pick up more than 20 yards), but Wilson can rise above it and produce low-end WR1 value for all of October.

George Pickens | DAL (vs GB)

I actually worry that the CeeDee Lamb injury subtracts from the bottom line for George Pickens, an option I’m assuming is a little off the beaten path.

I liked things the way they were. Lamb’s gravity opens up the entire field for a player capable of, in the right situation, winning in a variety of ways. Through three weeks, we’ve seen the deep shots that we expected, but we’ve also seen a 15.1% drop in aDOT from 2021 and thus a profile that was being built to resemble a strong WR2 moving forward.

Now?

With CeeDee Lamb projected to miss up to a month, I’m left wondering if selling Pickens after a pair of top 20 finishes is the play.

On Sunday night, Dallas faces a Green Bay defense that has allowed the second-fewest deep completions this season, and I fear that Pickens will be asked to win on those routes with increased defensive attention, similar to what he faced in Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Pickens isn’t a top 20 receiver. He might not be a top 30 receiver. I think this is a good player who was in the perfect spot, but the math has all changed in the short term.

What we will see as long as Lamb is sidelined is the equivalent of Klay Thompson when not paired with Steph Curry. Some health-related aspects on the NBA side of that comparison don’t align perfectly, but the point remains that the subtraction of a focal point significantly impacts the surrounding pieces.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at DEN)

I think we can probably burn the game tape from last week’s 48-10 loss in Minnesota, but it is a data point, and given that we don’t have many from Jake Browning, we have to take what we can get.

I worry that Ja’Marr Chase is at risk of being a fancy DJ Moore.

That’s probably a bit harsh, but his career average depth of target with Joe Burrow is more than two yards higher than what he’s put on tape with Jake Browning, and the few deep balls he does get are 18.2% less valuable with the backup pulling the trigger.

Now, I will say that I trust the volume. Chase has a 28.8% on-field target share with Browning this season, and a talent like this getting consistent volume is enough for him to be considered a lineup lock, a designation Tee Higgins no longer has.

Better days are obviously ahead for this offense and this team as a whole, but I don’t think the spike weeks for Chase are in the cards. Remember those three games last season with 170+ yards and multiple touchdowns?

They all included a 40+ yard reception, and those are going to be difficult to come by. Don’t do anything crazy, but Chase is no longer a Tier 1 receiver for me.

Jakobi Meyers | LV (vs CHI)

Picks like Jakobi Meyers are the ones that consistently competitive fantasy managers make.

Active streaks, 60+ receiving yards

• Jakobi Meyers (5)
• Quentin Johnston and Puka Nacua (4)
• Keenan Allen and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3)

He’s never going to give you the Tre Tucker game from last week, but he sucks some of the risk out of your lineup and allows your stars, the players you were most confident in at the draft, to dictate your fate.

What more could you ask for?

The first pass of last week was a 45-yard pass to Meyers, his longest catch as a member of this franchise. Spike plays aren’t really a part of his profile, but given the construction of this roster, we might see more shot plays while keeping the high-floor role.

Meyers isn’t a league winner, but he’s a reason you win leagues.

Jalen Coker | CAR (at NE)

I was excited about Jalen Coker early in the draft process this summer, thinking that the second-year receiver had a real chance to earn meaningful targets in a developing offense. That optimism grew after the Adam Thielen trade, but a day later, a “significant quad injury” landed him on IR.

That means Coker will miss at least the next three games, and all reporting out of Carolina has a mid-October return as the most optimistic. I still believe there’s something in this profile, but Xavier Legette will have every chance to earn more work. That leaves Coker as a drop in all formats — unless you can stash him in a free IR slot. Even then, the odds are strong that a player with a clearer path to production will go down this month.

I’m not selling all of my Coker stock because Carolina gets New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15-16, but you can buy back in after Halloween and likely not experience any loss in value.

Jalen McMillan | TB (vs PHI)

Jalen McMillan showed up in spurts as a rookie, but scoring on 21.6% of receptions isn’t stable. Nor was the 17.8-yard average depth of target on those touchdowns.

There were plenty of holes to poke in this profile. Still, the drafting of Emeka Egbuka has him fighting for playing time and thus a non-factor in most formats when healthy, which clearly isn’t the case after a scary injury this preseason (currently on IR with an absence that extends beyond the required four games, viewed as the most likely outcome).

There is some athletic ability here, which means spike plays are bound to happen, but I don’t expect the route/target count to be high enough to capture our interest. If this turns into a WR rotation, we can adjust. But for the time being, McMillan is a player who holds contingent value when active, and that’s about it.

You’re not going this direction unless you have an IR spot burning a hole in your pocket, though the Mike Evans injury does make this stash a touch more interesting.

Jameson Williams | DET (vs CLE)

We might have a problem here.

Part of what made Jameson Williams’ 2024 season so fun was that Detroit got creative. We know about the top speed, but Ben Johnson wanted him in space: sometimes that meant vertically, other times horizontally.

That hasn’t been the case through three weeks, and my dreams of further development are slowly being crushed.

• 2023: 16.0 aDOT
• 2024: 11.6 aDOT
• 2025: 17.8 aDOT

I’m not throwing in the towel just yet. Detroit has played two Super Bowl threats (Packers and Ravens), and they may be uniquely built in such a way that Williams’ strengths are muted.

He killed the Bears in Week 2, but my concerns are less about the production and more about the opportunity. Williams hasn’t seen more than five targets in a game this season, and if he’s being asked to run fly patterns while Jared Goff is being asked to prioritize efficiency, this is going to be a season full of ups and downs.

In theory, this is a fine spot regardless. The Browns are stingy, but they are often challenged deep down the field, and this Lions offense playing at home is a different beast.

I’ve got Williams as a low-end WR2, ranking just ahead of veterans like Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, and DK Metcalf, but I very much acknowledge that we are in a critical stretch where I need to see a usage change.

Jauan Jennings | SF (vs JAX)

The shoulder/ankle injuries didn’t sound too worrisome coming out of Week 2’s win in New Orleans. Still, whispers grew into chatter by the weekend and eventually resulted in Janouan Jennings being sidelined against the Cardinals.

I’m no doctor, but this feels like a team being cautious and potentially scared about Brandon Aiyuk’s recovery process. The 49ers won their first two games despite a ton of injuries, and they don’t go on bye until December. Jennings is going to be a valuable member of this team, and with a week to rest and nothing but a break on the horizon, this looks like a long-term investment.

Jennings easily paced San Francisco in receiving yards in Week 2, courtesy of a 26.3% target share. He’s my top-ranked 49er pass catcher this week, but you’ll need to monitor things, given the 4:05 p.m. EST kickoff, which means there will be plenty of replacement options locking well before the 49ers take the field this weekend.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at ARI)

I’d never lie to you guys.

When I was updating my rest of the season rankings after the dust settled on Week 3, the thought of Jaxon Smith-Njigba being a top-five receiver crossed my mind.

The developing super duper star has finished as a top 15 performer at the position in all three weeks this season and is pacing for a cool 124-catch, 1,830-yard season.

And that doesn’t even build in the idea that his connection with Sam Darnold stands to improve with reps as this season progresses!

He was the only Seahawk to catch a pass on their first drive last week (41 yards and a score), and until the league figures out how to slow him down, I’ll continue to assume it can’t be done.

JSN caught 11 of 12 targets while scoring in both Cardinal games a season ago: get your popcorn ready and continue to enjoy the profits that you’re getting from Smith-Njigba this season; the price is going to get expensive ahead of 2026.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs TEN)

Jayden Higgins hasn’t reached a 45% snap share at any point this season and has earned only a single target in consecutive weeks.

His playing time didn’t take a hit with Christian Kirk returning to the fold on Sunday, and I found that interesting. But this offensive line is making Nico Collins a flight risk: this isn’t the offensive profile I want to overextend myself for.

In terms of roster construction, I’d rather bet on a Dontayvion Wicks, DeAndre Hopkins, or Joshua Palmer type: receivers with single-play upside tethered to top 10 offenses.

Jayden Reed | GB (at DAL)

Fantasy football can be cruel at times.

For a brief moment in time in Week 2, Jayden Reed managers were thrilled. It looked like he hauled in a beautiful 39-yard touchdown on Green Bay’s first drive against Washington, not just a 10.9-point play, but some signal that his three deep targets in the season opener weren’t a fluke.

Those vibes didn’t last long.

He crashed to the ground at the end of the play, and you could see the yellow flag graphic pop up on the broadcast.

Offensive holding, 10-yard penalty, no play.

That hurt us, but Reed was hurting too. He was holding his right shoulder in a way that communicated that everything was not okay.

He never returned to the game, and even then, we optimistic Reed managers were convincing ourselves that it was as much the game situation (Green Bay largely controlled things from start to finish) and depth at the position. That the Packers were taking it easy with their presumptive WR1.

Nope.

Matt LaFleur gave us the broken collarbone diagnosis in the post-game news conference, and the current timeline is Halloween-ish.

That’s brutal.

Green Bay does have its bye during that stretch (Week 5), so that’s a positive, but for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, it’s hard to imagine them being very aggressive with Reed’s return to play, let alone his return to peak performance.

Obviously, you IR him if you can, and I think you hold him at the end of your bench if you can’t. He’s part of a WR committee in Green Bay, and that’s annoying, but his early-season usage patterns suggested some skill growth, and there are targets begging to be earned in this offense.

The end-of-season schedule for the Packers is brutal, as they face the Broncos and Ravens during the fantasy playoffs, but the version of Reed that we’ve seen for one game and one drive this season would still be a flex option in those spots.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs NYJ)

The production profile of Jaylen Waddle passes the sniff test, but I’m nervous.

He scored at the end of the first half on Thursday night, and that’s been encouraging. He’s seen three of Miami’s five end zone targets. With him functioning as the chain mover to Tyreek Hill’s verticality (Hill: 15.6 aDOT, Waddle: 8.47), the high catch rate is likely here to stay (82.4% is probably a bit optimistic, but the easy-button targets are his to lose).

Be careful.

Hill is out-targeting Waddle 8-2 on third downs this season, and that speaks to where Tua Tagovailoa is comfortable going when the chips are in the middle of the table. We also have this weird trend where Waddle only carries scoring equity against opponents he is familiar with.

The fact that he hasn’t scored against a non-AFC East opponent since Week 6 of 2021 is a weird one, but with a divisional opponent on tap this weekend, we can worry about that another time.

Waddle has earned at least eight looks in four straight against the Jets and averages 6.4 catches per game for his career against the divisional rival. I’ve got his numbers checking in around that level on Monday night, and that’s enough for him to crack my top 30, ranking above Hill for the first time this year.

Jaylin Noel | HOU (vs TEN)

Jaylin Noel had a two-week window to open the season where Christian Kirk was sidelined, and he had an opportunity to force his way onto the field.

It didn’t happen, and now it’s unlikely to happen in 2025.

Noel ran just seven routes on Sunday, a role that isn’t viable in any setting, never mind a unit that can’t protect its QB. You can move on from Noel at this point without feeling bad about being burned in the short term.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at DET)

Joe Flacco has nearly thrown more passes this season (126) than his presumptive top target has received yards (134).

That’s a problem, and I don’t know why it would change.

These Flacco passes are essentially empty calories, and considering that he’s a good bet to be the best QB on this roster, projecting growth moving forward is a tough mathematical challenge.

Jerry Jeudy has seen his slot usage cut in half from last year, resulting in a decline in his target share. The next red zone target he earns this season will be his first, and he’s been held out of the end zone department in nine of his past 11 games.

Jeudy is north of Chris Olave, and that profile isn’t going to threaten my top 30 at the position most weeks, especially when all 32 teams are in action.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at PIT)

Jordan Addison is back after having served a three-game suspension to open the season. Simple math had him projected for regression this season, as even the best this game has ever seen struggle to score on 14.3% of their receptions, Addison’s rate through two years.

Now, we have a backup quarterback situation to muddy the waters.

Aaron Jones being sidelined for at least the next three weeks should help stabilize Addison’s target share, but the value of those looks is questionable; this is a tough sell.

If you’re hurting for healthy options, I can understand going this direction in a flex situation. As a rookie, he scored in each of his first two games, and in his second game of last season, he found paydirt twice. In rostering Addison, you understand that you’re chasing a score, and that naturally comes with risk in this Carson Wentz world.

I’m taking a wait-and-see approach if at all possible.

Josh Downs | IND (at LAR)

Isn’t football funny?

Anthony Richardson plays quarterback, and we complain that the QB play is preventing any receiver from mattering.

Jones punches so far above his weight that he’s moving the ball around at a high level and not allowing any one receiver to get home consistently (four different Colts have 13+ targets through three weeks).

Last week, five Colts saw 3-6 targets, and I think that’s what we can expect moving forward. I’m not sure people want to admit it, but this offense functions a lot like the Packers, but with less hype.

That makes them an interesting team moving forward, but one that is reasonably straightforward for fantasy: play the running back and tight end every week, the QB in matchups, and pray that a receiver works his way into the top 25 eventually.

Josh Downs has been held under 5.5 PPR points in two of three games this season, and the unblemished Colts aren’t exactly motivated to change how they are going things. Michael Pittman is my top-ranked Indy receiver, but both he and Downs are in that WR40 range, making them risky plays at best.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (vs NO)

We might just be done here.

Josh Palmer earned one target on 15 routes against the Dolphins, and while the drum beat for him this summer spilled over some into Week 1 (5-61-0 against the Ravens), he has just three catches since.

Josh Allen’s recklessness has been contained more over the past 13 months than it was prior, and that’s a problem for Palmer as a vertical threat. Through their play-calling, it very much appears that Buffalo prefers the potential versatility of Keon Coleman over anything that Palmer is capable of, thus relegating him to a high-variance role that is likely to come with more downs than ups.

He plays for the Bills, so if there’s a team environment to take a chance on a player like this, this is it. That makes him stashable in deeper formats as we approach bye-week season, where YOLO options become more appealing due to a lack of options otherwise. Still, if you told me you had to cut ties to open up roster flexibility elsewhere, I wouldn’t bat an eye.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at PIT)

Getting 12.5 PPR points from your first-round pick isn’t exactly what you’re looking for in a favorable matchup, but I don’t think Jefferson managers can really complain about the final stat line.

Isaiah Rodgers scored a pair of defensive touchdowns, which skewed the way this game was called. Personally, I’m reading more into the 29.2% target share from last week than the pedestrian stat line against a vulnerable defense.

We’ve seen Jefferson produce video game numbers with a variety of QBs, so I’m not concerned about that front. We will see what the target distribution looks like as Jordan Addison returns to action. But again, we have more than enough evidence that Minnesota’s WR1 is going to earn his looks regardless.

I have Jefferson ranked as my WR5 for Week 4 as he takes on a Steelers defense that has already seen Garrett Wilson post a 7-95-1 line and the Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Cooper Kupp tandem combine for 15 catches and 193 yards.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs CAR)

Kayshon Bouttee earned eight targets on 44 routes in Week 1, and that was a fun way to start the season, but four targets on 56 routes since is representative of the peaks and valleys that come with a developmental QB.

Drake Maye is a work in progress. He’s talented, but not flawless, and without a bona fide top target, these crazy production swings are a part of betting on this offense.

For me, no pass catcher on this roster is going to be a must-start at any point this season. Hunter Henry had the big game last week, and DeMario Douglas could have a 10-catch game at some point.

Counting on players like this every week isn’t wise, but in uncertain situations like this, I have no problem going this way in a pinch, knowing that there are targets widely available every week.

Keenan Allen | LAC (at NYG)

Has enough been made about Keenan Allen’s start to 2025?

Since 2000, only five times has a player in his age-30 season or older recorded 60 receiving yards and a touchdown in each of the first three weeks of a season:

• Terrell Owens (2004)
• Randy Moss (2007)
• Brandon Marshall (2015)
• Mike Evans (2023)
• Allen (2025)

Through three weeks, Allen leads the Bolts in target rate (28.3% of his routes) and has five end zone targets. It is worth noting that we saw ups and downs from Allen last season (no 50-yard games until late November, but he also had a stretch with five scores in five games).

I feel good about saying that this is as good as it gets for Allen in 2025. That’s not to say that he’s going to fall off a cliff; posting top 20 finishes is simply hard to sustain (he’s done it in three straight games, a streak that Justin Jefferson never matched last year).

Allen is my second-favorite Charger receiver the rest of the way and a viable PPR flex moving forward.

Keon Coleman | BUF (vs NO)

Am I allowed to be encouraged by a 3-20-0 stat line?

I used the word “encouraged,” not “impressed” or a reason. Obviously, five PPR points on a night where the Bills score 31 points isn’t ideal, but a 3.3-yard aDOT tells me that there is some hope.

Some hope that we aren’t looking at another Christian Watson or Alec Pierce type. The Bills are looking to explore avenues for the 2024 second-round pick to contribute to drives, not just end them with either a splash touchdown or a deep incompletion that leads to a punt.

Long-term, we love this. But we love in the same way we love a kid learning how to drive. The freedom and convenience stand to be great, but the path to getting there can be bumpy.

Moving violations, near-death experiences, endangered pedestrians. You get the idea.

That’s what last week was. You took your lumps, and the payoff will be great — eventually. I’d be shocked if you’re ever comfortable counting on Coleman consistently this season, but from a DFS perspective, the profile is trending in the right direction, and I could see rolling the dice.

The fact that Josh Allen trusted him to make a hands catch on a third down in the red zone last week could be the start of something big. I do think he’s the answer to the “how will the Bills level up” question; it’s just a matter of how consistently he can piece it all together.

He’s a low-end flex this week for me that will be more appealing as bye weeks work their way into our world.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs NO)

After a miserable Week 2 in New York, Khalil Shakir made the most of his four targets against the Dolphins on Thursday night, scoring his first touchdown of the season as part of a 45-yard performance.

The ceiling is never going to overwhelm based on his skill set, but I do think the elevated floor that we penciled in this summer remains. Dalton Kincaid scored a 20-yard touchdown on Buffalo’s first drive, an option route that was run off a designed screen for Shakir.

The touchdown came on a motion play and was nearly a lateral. The fact that this offense is scheming up looks for their slot machine inside the red zone is gold.

The high catch rate and half-a-dozen looks are here to stay: the role we saw this week points to a real chance to match his career touchdown total (seven) this season, and that is why I’m fine with starting him as a WR3 in a PPR setting every week.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (at NYG)

Yep!

His numbers across the board are down a bit, but this feels very much like a “lose the battle, win the war” situation.
Last season, McConkey caught 82 passes for 1,149 yards despite defenses having little to sweat elsewhere (none of his teammates topped 55 receptions or 711 yards).

This season, Jim Harbaugh has opened up the offense in a significant way, and, for now, Justin Herbert is spreading the ball around.

Week 1-3 statistics:

• Quentin Johnston: 24 targets, 239 yards
• Keenan Allen: 28 targets, 194 yards
• McConkey: 21 targets, 163 yards

Be patient.

I don’t think there’s much debate about who the most talented receiver on this roster is. If this pass-centric offense is here to stay, I trust that it will pay off in a big way with time.

The Giants were solid last week in primetime against the Chiefs, but that might be more of a Kansas City problem than a New York strength. We saw Dallas systematically pick them apart in the second half in Week 2, another wide-open offense that wants to move the ball through the air.

I have no reservations about labeling McConkey as a top 20 receiver this week, now that he’s removed from the biceps injury that bugged him during practice this time last week. I think he has the potential to be even better than that moving forward.

What type of package could you get with McConkey for Ja’Marr Chase?

Could you leverage the recent play of Tyreek Hill into some sort of deal for McConkey?

Play around with our free Trade Analyzer. I bet you can open up an interesting conversation.

Luther Burden III | CHI (at LV)

Luther Burden III had two yards in three targets through two career games, but a meeting with the Cowboys has a way of unlocking things, especially when you have a playcaller like Ben Johnson looking to expose it.

The rookie paid off a goofy flea flicker that looked like D’Andre Swift was pitching a beach ball back to Caleb Williams. The optics really don’t matter: it was a 13.5-point play for Burden on your bench.

It was good to see a gadgety receiver make good on a gadget play, but let’s not do anything that we’ll regret.

Week 3 snap/route counts:

DJ Moore: 51 / 26

Rome Odunze: 51 / 26

Olamide Zaccheaus: 32 / 17

Burden: 17 / 9

Burden remains a pretty clear WR4 in an offense that also features two tight ends and still shows some inconsistencies under center. The big play was great to see, and maybe this is the start of something, but I’m not betting on it.

Burden doesn’t yet need to be rostered in average-sized leagues.

Malik Nabers | NYG (vs LAC)

This game we play can be an emotional one.

Malik Nabers won you your Week 2 matchup with the best game of his career (nine catches for 167 yards and a pair of scores in Dallas), and vibes were high.

Maybe Russell Wilson has enough gas in the tank?

Easy come, easy go.

The Chiefs put an umbrella on this offense and required anyone besides #1 to beat them. He turned seven targets into just 13 yards, and there were no real missed opportunities when looking back at the tape.

Relax.

Nabers was great last season, right? Well, that stat line came with eight sub-70-yard performances despite earning 11.3 targets per game.

This was always going to be a volatile situation, and you picked Nabers anyway, believing that his talent would, more often than not, pay off.

I’m not thrilled about his upside this week as we navigate QB conversations and a defense that has allowed just two red zone touchdowns this season. That said, the volume profiles are safe, and the raw ability is overwhelming.

Nabers is still a WR1 for me.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs BAL)

Hollywood Brown earned 16 targets in a 46-route Week 1 fill-in spot for Xavier Worthy, where he fell into the featured role. Since then, 11 targets on 63 routes isn’t bad, but they’ve been low-value looks (72 yards with zero touchdowns).

The dip in production signals that the Week 1 stat line was simply the result of filling a void in the game plan, not a game plan that was fitted to him.

With Worthy trending toward a return and Rashee Rice’s suspension up in a few weeks, Brown’s time as a flexy option is likely coming to an end. I’d rather play Jordan Addison in his first game off suspension or even Chris Olave’s locked-in volume, albeit in a brutal offensive environment.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs SEA)

“Frustratingly close”

I don’t know how else to say it.

We’ve seen some route development from Harrison this season, and his big-play making ability is something he’s got in his DNA, but we are having trouble getting that breakout game.

In San Francisco last week, it was a penalty that cost him big yardage before the mental lapse.

I’m not sure if he can spin and accelerate fast enough, but he got behind the defense, and Kyler Murray noticed it. Sitting wide open, Harrison had the ball coming his way. He wasn’t running fast, hardly moving at all. The ball was just floating toward him, like one of those slow-motion movie moments where the underdog is in the midst of pulling off some dramatic play.

Bobble.

Grass.

Incomplete.

If he catches it with confidence and can finish the play, we are looking at a 14.6-point play. At the very least, it should have been a 30+ yard gain that helps the 3-44-0 save what turned out to be a 3-44-0 day at the office.

There are problems with high-end receivers across this league, but I don’t think that’s the case here. He’s a talented player with a healthy QB1 and has become increasingly important to the team recently with the Conner injury.

MORE: Cardinals Predicted to Select 19-TD Star WR in 2026 NFL Draft Amid Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Struggles

I’ve ranked Tee Higgins and Brian Thomas types in my rankings this week, but that’s not the case for Harrison on Thursday night. Despite a tough matchup, I still have him as a top 20 player, thinking that we get the opportunity and talent combination to pay off sooner rather than later.

Seattle ranks 30th in blitz rate this season, giving MHJ time to work and cash in on some of the opportunities he’s missed through three weeks this season.

Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (vs CIN)

Marvin Mims has seen half of his targets this season come 15+ yards downfield, doubling his rate from a season ago and pigeonholing him into a boom/bust sort of role as opposed to the developmental project that we were hoping for.

In such a role, you’re going to have a few weeks that look like last.

Mims finishes Week 3 with 1.4 PPR points and was inches from a 14.7-point afternoon in Los Angeles had Bo Nix not misfired on a flea-flicker that left him space to run.

That’s the way the cookie crumbles.

This is, at some level, a cheap bet on Nix. If you think the second-year signal-caller rebounds with time, Mims is a great bet on the cheap right now. He scored six times on 39 receptions a season ago, and that sort of potential remains, but it’s going to be a “how lucky do you feel” situation.

For those looking to roll the dice this week, Mims had an 8-103-2 game in Week 17 against these Bengals last year. Of course, that came against a Joe Burrow-led version of this team that encouraged an aggressive game plan.

I’m not going this route.

I’ll play the Mims game in Week 8 with six teams on a bye and the Cowboys hosting the Broncos. If I’m going to go in a direction like this, it’ll be where my secondary options are lacking, not in a week like this, where no one is on bye and the position is still reasonably healthy.

Matthew Golden | GB (at DAL)

Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire.

The Packers’ offense struggled for much of Sunday in the upset loss, but Matthew Golden truthers watched with intrigue. The explosive rookie was targeted on the first pass of the game (eight-yard gain) and finished the first quarter with three grabs (18 yards).

I highlighted in our free PFSN Betting Newsletter that Golden’s vertical savvy was in a good spot against a Cleveland defense that is often challenged down the field, and we saw some of that later in the game with a 34-yard, over-the-shoulder pass from Jordan Love while standing in his own end zone.

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— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 24, 2025

All of this is encouraging, and I haven’t even mentioned the fact that he got multiple rush attempts for the second straight week. The Packers have a need, and they appear willing to give Golden a chance to help: what more could we ask for?

Well, we could ask for a primetime matchup with a vulnerable Cowboys defense that has allowed a league-high five deep touchdown passes this season. One of every four long throws against Dallas has resulted in a score, well above the league average that sits at roughly one-in-six, thus putting Golden in a spot to pay off on the upside we know him to have.

He’s my clear WR1 in Green Bay this week and is trending toward my top 40. If you want exposure to this burner, I think you have until Sunday night to get him at a reasonable price.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at LAR)

Michael Pittman has 16 catches through three weeks, scoring twice in the process.

We would have done unthinkable things to get a production line like that a season ago, but this seems to be the new reality with Daniel Jones under center.

If you want to bet against Dimes, selling his WR1 now at cost is the play, but I’m inclined to hold. The third-quarter touchdown over the weekend was the type of play you don’t see from sporadic fantasy options. Pittman and Jones timed a zone beater perfectly, and he cashed it in.

Pittman has never scored more than six times in a season, so asking him to keep up this pace probably isn’t fair, but an 80-catch season with 6-8 touchdowns? That’s a nice profit, considering what you paid this summer.

I’ve got Pittman as a firm part of the flex conversation this week, ranking ahead of the “we have a QB problem” tier that includes, but is not limited to, Tee Higgins and Brian Thomas.

Mike Evans | TB (vs PHI)

Mike Evans suffered what Todd Bowles labeled on Monday as a “low-grade” hamstring injury, and while that sounds good, let’s not forget that this is a 32-year-old receiver who is in the process of seeing Emeka Egbuka replace him.

Obviously, not all hope is lost. Evans still has plenty of juice (the five-yard TD last week was the scoring zone slant that we’ve seen work for a decade with him) and when at full strength, he stands to slide into the back-end of my WR2 rankings. But with Chris Godwin nearing his return and the best from Bucky Irving yet to come, there’s as much risk as reward in counting on Evans.

There are some instances where a productive player goes down with an injury and I’ll encourage you to buy on a discount. Opportunities like this present themselves all the time as a fantasy manager is holding a distressed asset because of their standing in your league and is looking, for lack of a better way to say it, to make a bad deal. To take pennies now for a dollar in the future.

This isn’t that.

READ MORE: Mike Evans Injury Update: How Long Will Fantasy Managers Be Without the Buccaneers WR?

Evans missed three games a season ago, and these soft tissue injuries always come with aggravation risk. We haven’t seen the future Hall of Famer reach 60 receiving yards in a game this season, and I’m not sure that changes in a meaningful way when he returns to the field.

Assuming he sits this week, you’ll be able to free up a roster spot by using your IR, and that’s fine. Just be careful in assuming that you’re getting a difference-maker when he returns to your lineup.

Nico Collins | HOU (vs TEN)

Nico Collins has a deep touchdown in consecutive games after a brutal 3-25-0 showing in Week 1 against the Rams, restoring my faith in humanity as someone who had him ranked as my top overall player at the position entering the season.

That’s probably not going to happen, but it does begin to look like the Texans are starting to embrace the “drop everything and get Collins fed” game plan.

First pass play of their first four drives in Week 3:

• Collins deep target, incomplete
• Nick Chubb, -2-yard reception
• Collins deep target, incomplete
• Collins, five-yard reception

The 50-yard touchdown was more of a defensive lapse than anything, but if C.J. Stroud is programmed to lock onto Collins, he’s going to get some of those.

In the fourth quarter, the flip side of that coin came into play. Understanding how much of this offense is on his shoulders, Collins overextended on a play and lost a fumble trying to do too much.

If we are losing points because our players are too aggressive, I’ll take my chances. Collins isn’t my WR1 anymore, but I do think he’s a locked-in WR1 that still has a chance to return value on the pick you spent this summer, even if this is one of the five worst offensive lines in the sport.

Pat Bryant | DEN (vs CIN)

I hate to cut bait on a rookie receiver that I think has some interesting potential long-term before the end of September. Still, I’m cutting bait on a rookie receiver that I think has some interesting potential long-term before the end of September.

Pat Bryant was on the field for just 11 snaps on Sunday, and if that wasn’t bad enough, he ran a route on only two of them.

Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin are pretty clearly ahead of him in terms of receivers that Sean Payton is in a rush to develop. With Trent Sherfield playing more in a big divisional game against the Chargers, I think it’s reasonable to say that the Bryant sleeper thing will have to wait until 2026 at the earliest.

Could there be some post-hype value to grab in 11 months? It’s possible, but that’s a conversation we don’t have to have right now. Bye weeks start up next week, and you’re going to be able to find a better use of a bench spot than the third-round pick out of Illinois.

Puka Nacua | LAR (vs IND)

Puka Nacua is in the conversation to be ranked as the WR1 for the remainder of the season, and he might just be leading it.

Since 2000, most 10+ catch games in the first 31 games of his career:

• Nacua (6)
• Brock Bowers (4)
• Christian McCaffrey (4)
• Kellen Winslow (4)
• Jaylen Waddle (4)

There’s a sense of inevitability with him weekly that so few have access to. Nacua has finished all three weeks this season as a top 10 performer at the position, and, amidst all of the crazy stats surrounding the start of his career, this is the one I find most illuminating.

Since the start of 2022, Nacua ranks as WR13 in total PPR points (WR2 per game). Over that same stretch, here are the Rams’ leaders in end zone targets:

• Demarcus Robinson (now with SF): 12
• Davante Adams (3 weeks with LAR): 8
• Cooper Kupp (now with SEA): 7
• Nacua: 6

Our game is so driven by touchdowns due to the scoring structure, and Nacua is producing at an elite level without the help of the most valuable opportunities in the sport.

What if Happy learns how to putt?

Rashee Rice | KC (vs BAL)

Rashee Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, and with a Week 10 bye, you’re looking at a fantasy star that needs to hit the ground running in a month when you get him back.

Rice showed well physically in camp, and when he’s back on the active roster, there’s no conversation to be had. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.

With Travis Kelce at the mercy of Father Time and Xavier Worthy’s role only set to regress, Rice is the pass catcher to trust in this offense when at full strength, and it’s not close in my opinion.

If you roster Rice, you have the opportunity to play him every week. Survive in the short term and thrive in the long term. I’m told this is what parenting is like, but I cannot confirm.

If you don’t, I’d suggest actively rooting against the team that does. Not that “rooting” does you any good, but you will want to keep tabs on that team: if that team stubs its toe out of the gates and doesn’t feel as if it can survive the entirety of this suspension, you might be able to buy low on a potential league winner:

Week 12 vs. Colts

Stat to track: Second-highest short pass passer rating allowed in 2024 (only the Patriots were worse).

Week 13 at Cowboys

Stat to track: Highest short completion percentage allowed last season (78.5%, league average: 73.5%).

Week 14 vs. Texans

Stat to track: Allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per catch after the reception last season (NFL average: 5.3)

Week 15 vs. Chargers

Stat to track: Last season, 50 of Mahomes’ 66 passes thrown against the Chargers traveled less than 10 yards downfield (75.8%, the highest mark of his career against the divisional opponent, career rate prior vs LAC: 65.4%)

Week 16 at Titans

Stat to track: Sixth-highest touchdown rate allowed on short passes

Week 17 vs. Broncos

Stat to track: Mahomes played against them once last season, and he threw 31 passes no more than five yards downfield, the third highest.

Rashid Shaheed | NO (at BUF)

If you had told me a month ago that we’d be getting 4+ catches from Rashid Shaheed on a weekly basis, I would have told you to make sure you get 100% exposure in your drafts.

The volume hasn’t been an issue, but those looks aren’t anything like we’ve seen in the past from this big-play savant. His aDOT has sunk from 18.1 yards to 10.1, and while that has raised his floor to an acceptable level, he’s really not all that interesting of a fantasy option without the threat of the big play (held without a 20-yard reception in two of three games).

I like having Shaheed rostered right now because I bought the player, and if there is eventually a change under center, having access to something new is generally how I play these things.

That said, I don’t view him as a must-roster player anymore, as the single-play upside that made him an intriguing “break glass in case of emergency” type has vanished.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (at KC)

Rashod Bateman had easily his best game of the season on Monday night against the Lions, hauling in five of seven targets for 63 yards and a three-yard score.

There is theoretical upside in Bateman. He has a defined skill set as a part of one of the five best offenses in the league. Teams can’t allocate safety help over the top because all hands need to be on deck to stop Derrick Henry from ruining the game, and Lamar Jackson has turned himself into one of the best pure passers in the league.

But if I can’t trust Zay Flowers and the tight ends in this offense, all of whom I think are more talented and vital to the success of this offense, how can I get there on the secondary receiver?

Trick question, I can’t.

Bateman is a perfect plug-and-play option that is essentially matchup-proof when you need him. If you’re battling injuries or byes throughout the season, he’s on the field for an offense that is going to score 25+ points more often than not.

But choosing to play him over players who mean more to their respective teams (There are obvious names, but I’m looking at the upside of a player like Matthew Golladay or Keon Coleman as similar players that I consistently rank higher) just isn’t going to happen for me.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs JAX)

Ricky Pearsall showed some pro-level chops with a 34-yard sideline catch last week when his team needed it most and continues to impress in this, his first full season in the NFL.

That grab highlighted an 8-117-0 line, making him the first 49er with a pair of 100-yard receiving games in the first three weeks of a season since Antonio Bryant did it in 2006.

The Jauan Jennings scratch (ankle/shoulder) put more responsibilities on Pearsall’s plate, and he didn’t bat an eye. You love to see that, but you have to naturally wonder just how sustainable it is.

Steve Young praises Ricky Pearsall’s body control and ability to get open in limited space — every QBs dream.

(via @knbrmurph & @MarkusBoucher) pic.twitter.com/DekXeyrLaN

— KNBR (@KNBR) September 24, 2025

In Week 2, with both receivers at full strength, Jennings out-earned Pearsall 10-6 in the target department, finishing with 89 yards and a score. I’m operating under the assumption that Jennings is good to go this week and have him ranked a touch higher than Pearsall, though both are in that WR3 tier against a Jags defense that has played well in two favorable matchups this season while getting lit up in a tough spot at Cincinnati.

This matchup doesn’t scare me, as the potential for this to be a six-target game for Pearsall, in which case you’re banking on plus-efficiency from a banged-up signal-caller in an offense that has the option to dump the ball off to Christian McCaffrey.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at LV)

Rome Odunze earned 101 targets as a rookie and averaged 13.6 yards per catch in a complementary role, but with Caleb Williams developing and Ben Johnson calling plays, the former ninth overall pick is flashing his pedigree on a routine basis.

The 35-yard score last week came on a shifty move that had the defender on skates, and it was timed perfectly by Williams. Art in motion.

Since 2016, only four players have scored a touchdown in each of the first three weeks of their second season: DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, DJ Chark, and Odunze. That’s a solid list to join, and I see no reason to think it slows against a Raiders team that just allowed Marcus Mariota’s Commanders to average 7.4 yards per play.

Odunze is the Bears’ top receiver, the third-best in the NFC North, and a top 20 guy across the league the rest of the way (flirting with my top 15 in this specific matchup).

Romeo Doubs | GB (at DAL)

I lost count a while ago, but the “__ consecutive days without feeling good about starting a Packers WR” count is getting out of control.

Green Bay WR stat lines, Week 3:

Matthew Golladay: 4 catches on 4 targets for 52 yards

Romeo Doubs: 2 catches on 2 targets for 25 yards

Dontayvion Wicks: 2 catches on 4 targets for 21 yards

The Packers are a lesser version of the Ravens, with no one receiver as good as Zay Flowers. It’s a tough offense to guard for that exact reason, but even with some optimism that they clear 30 points on Sunday night, I’m not confident in flexing a single one of their receivers.

And that’s with the added clarity that comes with Jayden Reed being on the shelf!

I’m all for rostering any Packer your heart desires, but you have to understand that you’re doing it more as a way to have a bailout option in times of need than the hope for one of them to emerge as a weekly lineup lock (I think we may get one this week, but it isn’t Doubs).

Don’t shoot the messenger.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs CAR)

There’s no one in this Patriots offense I feel great about weekly, and a 31-year-old Stefon Diggs is no exception.

The veteran receiver has seen his target, catch, and yardage count decline each week this season (57 yards in Week 1, 55 yards since), and I’m unsure of the path back to fantasy relevance.

Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte are the only every-down pass catchers in this offense, with Diggs fighting with Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas, and Austin Hooper for opportunities. Toss in the likely increase in usage for the versatile TreVeyon Henderson, and it’s hard to project Diggs for five targets, and even more difficult to project him to do much with the looks he does earn.

I’m not stopping you if you want to cut your losses now and build the backend of your roster more strategically.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at DEN)

The margins are so thin in this league, and they are getting even thinner in Cincinnati if Week 3 Jake Browning is the version we get for the next 2+ months.

Tee Higgins caught just three of eight targets in Week 2’s win over the Jaguars, the game in which Joe Burrow was hurt, and struggled to earn targets, forget efficient ones, on Sunday in Minnesota with Browning under center from the start.

• One catch
• Two targets
• 15 yards

It was a mess. The game got out of hand in a hurry, and that reduced any chance of a bounce back.

It should be noted that Browning just missed Higgins on an end zone fade that would have added 9.7 PPR points to his bottom line and lessened your headache quite a bit, but that is the sort of thing that happens with a backup under center.

The reason I’m worried isn’t because of a single poor performance, but a usage pattern.

Since 2023, Higgins has seen 18% of his Burrow targets come 15+ yards downfield, a rate that sits at 40.6% with Browning.

In theory, you’d assume that means more reward potential, but considering that the quality of those throws is low, it carries more risk than anything.

Higgins was effective with Browning in 2023 (2.06 yards per route), but again, if those bombs aren’t connecting, we have a problem (0.98 yards per route with him this season).

I’ve got Cincinnati’s WR2 ranked as a low-end WR3 for fantasy managers this season and fear that his stat lines might look similar to what we’ve seen from Brian Thomas in Jacksonville up to this point.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at ATL)

For my money, that’s a touchdown.

Terry McLaurin left last week’s win over the Raiders with a quad injury, but before that, he made a play on what looked like a 57-yard touchdown, extending the ball to the goal line while being dragged down.

Review overturned the ball, and if you lost your fantasy matchup by 6.1 points or fewer, that’s tough to swallow.

That’s in the past, though. The future involves a few moving pieces. The health of Jayden Daniels is obviously a concern, along with the availability of his WR1. I’m hopeful that McLaurin can suit up this week (he hasn’t sat out a game since 2020) because he needs to rediscover the magic with his dynamic QB.

• Weeks 1-2, 2025: 18.8% target share
• 2024: 23.2% target share

That may not seem like the greatest difference in the world, but with seemingly inevitable regression in the touchdown department, McLaurin managers need high levels of volume in order to pay off this investment.

The dual nature of health concerns have me down a bit on him this week, ranking him as more of a reasonable flex than anything against the Falcons. I think he still offers top 20 production at the position from this point forward, but there’s no shying away from an increase in risk as we prepare for Week 4.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (at NE)

Context is king.

If I told you that Tetairoa McMillan was earning nine targets per game through three professional contests, you’d be impressed.

If I left that part out and said that his catch rate is hovering around 50% and that he hasn’t scored, you’d be wondering if the preseason buzz was worth it.

I’m choosing the glass-half-full approach. This Panthers team, despite the strong showing on Sunday against the Falcons, is going nowhere fast. There are some pieces in place, but this isn’t a team ready to contend at a serious level.

Given the context of a bad team and no real target-earning support, I’m thrilled with the volume that McMillan has seen through three weeks. He’s opening up windows that are large enough for Bryce Young to see, and that’s a win.

Efficiency concerns are a part of doing business, but we know they are an issue because he’s earning enough to notice. I value the ability to play at pro speed highly for incoming rookies, and McMillan has checked that box with relative ease thus far.

There will be some big games this season. I have no doubt. Carolina schemed up almost the football version of a pick-and-roll for McMillan on an early fourth down, and it’s that sort of creativity that I’m looking for.

No one thought that McMillan was going to make Young into Patrick Mahomes or that his rookie season would look like that of Nacua. He’s a reasonably polished receiver in an ugly spot who is doing the best he can.

I’m encouraged and think the future is brighter than the past. McMillan is a top-20 receiver for me this week and a viable WR2 the rest of the way.

Tory Horton | SEA (at ARI)

We are seeing rookies like Pat Bryant in Denver struggle to earn playing time, while others, such as Tetairoa McMillan, get on the field and thrive right away.

Development is a non-linear process with a million moving pieces; never forget that.

The first piece in most equations is talent, followed closely by opportunity. Tory Horton has the former and is proving deserving of the latter.

He was held without a target on 17 routes in his NFL debut, but has vacuumed in eight targets on 34 routes since, scoring in both games.

Oh yes, and he pulled a reverse Kaleb Johnson and scored for the right team on special teams via a 95-yard punt return during their throttling of the Saints on Sunday.

I’m not here to say that Horton is the next big thing. Cooper Kupp signed a three-year $45 million deal in March, and that alone is going to suppress Horton’s playing time. Still, if he shows the type of juice he did over the weekend consistently and the Kupp experience follows the trajectory from a season ago, we could be looking at a late-season flex who is earning a handful of targets per game.

Those looks aren’t a lock to be valuable if you believe Sam Darnold was more the creation of Kevin O’Connell than anything last season. But there is certainly a way for this to play out, where Horton faces a tapped-out Panthers team in sunny Carolina in Week 17, making a difference in your most important fantasy matchup of the season.

Travis Hunter | JAX (at SF)

A month ago, we were wondering just how good this offense could be. We were worried about the run game, but confident that Liam Coen could maximize the pass game and result in plenty of value at a cost across the board.

• Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
• Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
• Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps

Life comes at you fast.

Now, the rush game is the only thing we can trust. Travis Hunter is now a defender who plays offense, and we have to assume that sticks until proven otherwise. The next time he hits 35 receiving yards in a game will be his first as a pro, and while he continues to show glimpses (his lone catch last week was a five-yard pass that he took for 21 after making two defenders miss on a first-and-20 play), things are very much trending away from us.

I think you’re crazy if you’re cutting ties completely with Hunter after three games, but there’s also no way he’s deserving of a look at your flex spot, even against a hobbled 49ers defense.

If you want to gain exposure to this unique talent, consider low ownership and do it through DFS.

Tyreek Hill | MIA (vs NYJ)

We got a vintage Tyreek Hill route on the short touchdown against the Dolphins on Thursday night, where his speed in those tight windows can put the corner in a blender.

For a moment, everything looked as it was supposed to. Hill ran the shifty pattern, and Tua Tagovailoa put the ball right where it needed to be, perfectly on schedule. There was a toe-tap third-down play that followed the same pattern in the game as well, so it’s not as if all hope is lost, but I’m not exactly encouraged.

Hill caught just one pass in the second half on Thursday, and that is where the problem lies. The quality of target is a real concern these days, and the deeper down the field those looks come, the less confident I get.

The speed is still there, and we see glimpses of it, but he’s come down with just three deep passes (20+ air yards) this season, and the highlight of that collection was a play in Week 2 where Tagovailoa appeared to be trying to throw a 21-pound football and came up well short of the desired placement.

He missed by enough that Hill was able to work his way back and make the play for a 47-yard gain, but it was far from a clean effort and nowhere near what we’ve seen from this offense in the past. The tandem took a shot against the Bills, but the timing was off, and the pass sailed high without posing much of a real threat.

Hill is the downfield threat in this offense, that much is clear with an aDOT that is nearly double that of Jaylen Waddle. That’s valuable, but it comes with more risk, especially when the opponent is familiar with this system and has an ace corner.

RELATED: Tyreek Hill Predicted As Trade Candidate for Dolphins After Miami’s 0–3 Start

I prefer the high catch rate that we get access to with Waddle in this specific spot, but both will be in the WR3 range for me every week moving forward, and I don’t see that changing.

If past trends are of interest to you, in Hill’s last four games against the Jets, he’s failed to reach five PPR points twice and cleared 25 PPR points in the other two instances. This is an all-or-nothing spot, something we are going to have to get used to.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs LAC)

Wan’Dale Robinson saw 12 deep targets across 17 games last season, and that’s the profile we locked in for 2022.

That hasn’t been the case (seven deep targets over the past two weeks), and I think he’s looked good down the field. I’ve largely been impressed, but how much of that changes if the Giants make a change under center?

The truth is that we don’t know.

What I do feel good about is that Robinson is the WR2 in an offense that will be playing from behind regularly. In PPR leagues, I have him ranked as a low-end flex option this week, with the thought being that the Chargers will defend the Giants in a similar manner to what we saw from the Chiefs on Sunday night.

Robinson is averaging five catches on 7.3 targets this season: that’s essentially what I have him penciled in for this week, and double-digit PPR points should finish inside the top 36 at the position in a game that I expect to be one-sided.

Even if a change happens, we have enough data points to suggest that Robinson can win on the underneath routes, making him less vulnerable than others to an offensive shift.

Xavier Legette | CAR (at NE)

A hamstring cost Xavier Legette Week 3 after a limited practice week, and if this is the first you’re hearing of that, it tells you all you need to know.

This is an inconsistent offense at best, and Legette has yet to make good on the Round 1 draft capital that was spent on him (eight yards on 15 targets this season).

The ability to earn targets is at least interesting, but there’s no reason to try to get ahead of the curve in a situation like this.

Nothing in this Carolina pass game is consistent week-over-week, and with Tetairoa McMillan vacuuming in targets weekly, there simply isn’t enough meat left on this bone to like any secondary pass catcher with Bryce Young at the controls.

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs BAL)

The final decision continues to linger late into the week, but the Chiefs again ruled out Xavier Worthy for Week 3 with a shoulder injury that cost him all but three snaps in the season opener.

His ability to get on the practice field at all last week puts him in a position to return this week, something that didn’t seem likely given the optics of the injury.

So, can you trust him in this spot?

The Chiefs did get him two opportunities (one rush and one target) before the injury, and the fact that his replacement went on to see 16 targets against the Chargers points pretty strongly to how this team plans to use their talented receiver in his second season while Rashee Rice serves his suspension.

There is, of course, plenty of risk in betting on a loose shoulder, as it could impact how he plays and how Andy Reid deploys him. I have him ranked as more of an “if you need upside” flex play than a surefire option, but this is a pass-centric offense playing against a defense that can shut down the run.

You’re likely playing him if you have him, but don’t be afraid to consider other options if you feel like you’re already favored in your Week 4 matchup.

Zay Flowers | BAL (at KC)

We are going to see more than we want to.

Think about some of the top teams in the league this season. Your mind will likely go to the Bills, Packers, Eagles, Ravens, and a few others. In those mentioned examples, the ground game is so strong that the passing volume is at risk every single week, and when that’s the case, good players are going to have down weeks.

It’s just math.

Zay Flowers had 14 catches for 218 yards and a score through two weeks before the dud on Monday night against the Lions (two catches for 13 yards).

It’s disappointing, but like a classroom of kids taking advantage of a substitute teacher, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. Flowers continued to earn eight targets per game last season and cleared 1,000 yards, but it didn’t come without eight contests where he failed to reach 40 receiving yards.

This is simply the cost of doing business with the Ravens.

I’m not worried about Flowers’ year-end numbers, but you should be aware that this isn’t the last time he’ll leave you wanting more. I like him to bounce back this week (WR18 for me) against a Chiefs defense that figures to press the line of scrimmage (seventh in both blitz and pressure rate thus far), thus leaving the agile Flowers on an island to win in a hurry.

Tight Ends

Brenton Strange | JAX (at SF)

Brenton Strange looks the part.

He’s a hard-nosed runner with the ball in his hands and came through on a downfield route last week (16-yard gain). Those spike plays aren’t going to be something you can count on (of 35 qualified quarterbacks since the beginning of last season, Trevor Lawrence ranks 31st in deep ball passer rating). Still, with this passing game in disarray right now, he’s something of a stabilizing skill set.

He’s a part of the tier of tight ends fighting for TE12 honors this week and is an entirely viable option for those navigating injuries or tight ends positioned to be labeled a bust when all is said and done this year.

Brock Bowers | LV (vs CHI)

Brock Bowers is the same player he was in 2022 and the same player he was in Week 1, and that much I feel good about.

The combination of athleticism, route savvy, and feel for the game is second to none at the position, but fantasy football, like it or not, is a team game, and Bowers’ team isn’t helping him.

The offensive line is getting thrown under the bus in the Ashton Jeanty conversations, and that’s right, but it’s also subtracting from Bowers’ bottom line. They simply can’t keep Geno Smith comfortable, and if that’s going to continue (at this point, why would we expect it to change?), the range of outcomes is wide.

Scroll across the internet, and you’ll see memes about C.J. Stroud in his rookie season compared to the rest of his time in the NFL. You don’t have to look hard for Spencer Rattler slander, and while we all like the potential of Cam Ward, he’s not there yet.

All of those QBs have a better non-blitzed passer rating than Smith this season. Teams are not motivated to blitz because they can generate pressure with their front four, and that means dud games for Bowers are inevitable (76 yards in the two games following the 103-yard 2022 debut).

That, of course, doesn’t rule out the big games from an elite player, and that’s why you play Bowers weekly, but I’d be comfortable with selling him after his next big game for a Tucker Kraft or Jake Ferguson package.

Cade Otton | TB (vs PHI)

Cade Otton remains on the field plenty (102 routes) and remains incapable of earning opportunities (three receptions). The Mike Evans injury could open the door for more looks, but with talk trending that Godwin is coming back, I actually think the type of look that Otton earns will be more difficult with Godwin and Evans than without them.

I’ll be watching this week because any change is worth monitoring, but I’m not ranking Otton as a streamer this week and don’t anticipate doing so as we welcome byes into our lives next week.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (at HOU)

This is the profile I want to look at for a tight end as injuries pile up and bye weeks approach.

Chig Okonkwo’s slot usage is up nearly 50% from a season ago, and while his target rate is in line with 2021, he’s getting the ball in his hands earlier and thus picking up more yardage after the catch this year than last.

In a struggling offense with an inconsistent rookie calling the shots, a big body like this that can do the heavy lifting once fed the ball stands to hold a reasonable weekly floor with some progressive upside as Cam Wards develops.

By no means am I saying that Okonkwo has to be rostered, but I will say that he needs to be on your radar when it comes to streaming the position. The Texans allowed Brenton Strange to lead the Jaguars with 61 receiving yards last weekend, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Okonkwo could build on a solid Week 3.

He’s on the outside looking in this week at my top 12 tight ends, but he’s taken the Uber to the front door and is ready to enter should the position across the league continue to struggle.

Cole Kmet | CHI (at LV)

No law says the tight end position needs to be used, and the Bears are reinforcing that, an odd strategy given the draft capital they spent this April.

Cole Kmet has played north of 89% of their offensive snaps in all three weeks this season (Colston Loveland has yet to reach 60%), and while he scored last week, 70 yards on 85 routes isn’t going to cut it.

The veteran was a spotty contributor at best a season ago. While the rookie isn’t putting much pressure on his role right now, that threat still looms, not to mention two standout receivers — one with potential — and a versatile running back, all of whom are earning looks from Caleb Williams.

I don’t mind betting on the Bears to improve as the season wears on, but I’m not the least bit interested in doing it at the tight end position.

Colston Loveland | CHI (at LV)

The idea of Colston Loveland seems to be crystallizing.

• Week 1: 58.3% of his snaps were routes
• Week 2: 60% of his snaps were routes
• Week 3: 83.3% of his snaps were routes

That chart looks better than it is. I like the idea of that chart moving forward, but the rookie was on the field for just six snaps during Sunday’s convincing win over the Cowboys.

The route-oriented job description is exactly what we want, and I think it’ll hold value in deeper TE premium leagues this season, as it’ll be rare that Chicago controls games the way they did in Week 3.

That said, Loveland, even after a 31-yard grab early, was slotted well behind Cole Kmet in the hierarchy of this tight end room. It’s hard enough for a Chig Okonkwo type to emerge, a singular TE with a young QB responsible for getting him looks, so when we are talking about the back-end of a TE committee, I lose faith.

Loveland versus Tyler Warren was a popular discussion point in August, and Warren may double up Loveland in rookie production. The Bears got that wrong, and you may have too, but I’m leaving the light on.

I’m not holding him, but I’m not giving up. Let’s see how the snap distribution looks in November when Chicago’s fate for the season is pretty clear and growth becomes a priority over current production.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (at TB)

The one-week absence caused by a knee injury seemed to worry fantasy managers (Dallas Goedert was a recurring name mentioned in our Start/Sit Optimizer this past week) more than the Eagles.

And both were right.

Philadelphia asked him to be on the field for 90.5% of their offensive snaps in their comeback win over the Rams on Sunday, but they didn’t throw him the ball once in the first half.

His longest touchdown since 2021 saved the day in the third quarter, but that was his only reception of the afternoon, a bit of a concern considering that this was the rare instance where the Eagles had to open up their offense.

This should be a competitive game, and those are the only instances in which I have any interest in Goedert. He’s ranked just outside of my top 12 at the position this week, but the margins from TE8-TE18 are thin, and if you roster him as your only tight end, I’d stick with him this week.

After this week, the Eagles get the Broncos, Vikings, and the Giants twice before their Week 9 bye. If you told me that Goedert found the end zone this weekend and that his value is as high as it’ll get all season, I’d believe you: I’m starting him this week and hoping to get out of the Goedert business in this low-volume passing game after consecutive viable performances.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs NO)

Dalton Kincaid has caught at least four passes in three straight games to open 2025, a streak that tops anything he did last season, and has earned a red zone target in each of those contests for good measure.

The yardage upside isn’t there (he doesn’t have a 70-yard game since his rookie season), but if the valuable looks are going to be his to earn in this pass catcher committee situation, Kincaid is going to be a top 10 option at the position the rest of the way.

I’d be careful in assuming that you have your answer at the TE position for the remainder of the season locked in (his two touchdowns already are a career high). For right now, though, Kincaid profiles as an involved piece of an elite offense, and that’s good enough for me.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs TEN)

We are approaching 10 months since the last time Dalton Schultz cleared 45 receiving yards in a game, and with just two scores over his past 25 games, there really is no reason to be looking this deep down the TE board, even if you think the Titans are the worst team in the AFC.

Christian Kirk made his season debut over the weekend and walked right into an eight-target role that Schultz couldn’t grab a hold of during his absence. Houston has one of the worst offensive lines in the sport, and two receivers capable of earning targets in bulk. Nothing about this situation suggests that Schultz is going to offer consistent value anytime soon.

David Njoku | CLE (at DET)

After deciding to watch a Fast and Furious movie, are you allowed to walk away disappointed that what you just viewed wasn’t a cinematic masterpiece?

I vote no. You went in knowing exactly what to expect, and it delivered on as much.

That’s what the Browns are. Their offense is more rock fight than fast-and-furious, but you get the idea. You know what you’re signing up for, and if that’s what you want, go for it.

David Njoku has gained 37-40 receiving yards on 5-7 targets in all three games this season, and that’s going to be roughly my projection for him as long as Joe Flacco is under center.

He led the Browns in targets (seven), catches (five), and receiving yards (40) in the upset win over the Packers in a game in which they were held scoreless for the first three quarters. The range of outcomes for him has more downward mobility than anything due to Harold Landry’s involvement. Still, the target count is something I view as reasonably stable for a team that I expect to throw as many passes week-to-week as anyone.

Njoku is flirting with my top 10 at the position this week for a game that has more potential to get going up-and-down than most Cleveland contests.

Evan Engram | DEN (vs CIN)

A calf injury was ailing Evan Engram entering Week 2, and while he seemed to heal up OK from that, an achy back cost him Week 3.

We talk all the time about Father Time and his impact, but this man has been 31 years old for less than a month, and the injuries have piled up. Engram missed eight games last season after consecutive full campaigns, and while it’s too early to call this a lost season, things are certainly trending away from one of my favorite mid-range tight ends this summer.

You hate to see it.

You’re going to make ranking errors. Everybody does. This is a crazy game that involves 100+ car crashes weekly. Successful fantasy managers don’t avoid errors; they are the ones who react best around the landmines.

I’m keeping Engram in my IR slot as long as I can. I’ll be stubborn in thinking that there could be something here in an offense I expect to look better with time, but at this point, that would be a “nice to have.” At this point, I’m considering Engram a stash and counting on someone else as my weekly option at the position until we get evidence suggesting otherwise.

George Kittle | SF (vs JAX)

George Kittle was doing George Kittle things until he decided to do less fun George Kittle things in the Week 1 win over the Seahawks.

Early on, he caught all four of his targets and scored on an extension play to the pylon, where he flexed his athleticism and awareness. When he’s right, he’s as good as it gets at the position.

The problem is that we almost always have to navigate injuries, and that is already the case in 2024.

Kittle has played the full slate of games just once in his eight-year career and is now nursing a hamstring injury that landed him on IR ahead of Week 2, ruling him out through Week 5 at the very least.

What causes Kittle to miss time is the same mindset that makes him an elite option when active. I’m banking on him returning to take on the Buccaneers in Week 6 (for those keeping track at home, this would give him two weeks to work his way into form before National Tight End Day) and offer the type of strong production we’ve come to know and love.

Hunter Henry | NE (vs CAR)

Hunter Henry looked great last week. After catching just five passes through two weeks, the 30-year-old hauled in 8-of-11 targets against the Steelers for 90 yards and a score, likely deciding your matchup if he was involved.

The score was an encouraging one: a five-yard strike from Drake Maye in the face of a heavy blitz. Throughout the game, I was impressed. There was a chunk play late in the first half that started with Henry in the backfield and running something of a modified wheel route.

The creativity was great to see, and the connection with Maye seems to be growing. The matchup this week with the Panthers is hardly one to fear, and that is why Henry is sitting just inside of my top 10 at the position for Week 4.

But be careful.

Last season, we saw as many Henry performances as a top 10 tight end as we did weeks outside of the top 35 (five). The Maye can taketh away just as fast as he can giveth, so tread lightly. I like this spot, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this were a conservative approach that resulted in a low-pass attempt game.

I like Henry more this week than I do for the rest of the season. New England’s target hierarchy feels like a Russian Roulette situation, and while I think Henry is on the right side of things now, I’m not committing to the idea that he’s a lineup lock for the next three months.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (at KC)

Isaiah Likely is nearing his return (foot), but time will only tell what his return to action will look like.

The hope is that he can continue his subtle breakout and grace the top 10 at the position when it matters most this winter, though it’s safe to say that we need to see it before assuming it.

For me, stashing Likely is more of a long-term bet against Mark Andrews than anything. There is a three-week window (Weeks 13-15: two Bengals games and the home Steelers game) during which the fantasy regular and postseasons merge that is likely to project very well for this offense, potentially giving them two pass catchers that rank as starters for a critical stretch.

Zay Flowers seems like a good bet to be half of that equation, but who will be second? Likely could be, and that fact alone makes him worth holding in formats with average-to-deep benches.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (at NE)

The physical profile of Ja’Tavion Sanders makes sense on paper. While our game is technically played in spreadsheets, none of that matters if the Panthers are interested in getting their second-year TD involved.

Sanders was fantasy’s sixth-best tight end in Week 2 against the Cardinals, but he doesn’t have a 20-yard grab this season and wasn’t a top 25 performer at the position in the games on either side of that spike performance.

Sanders is a DFS punt play right now, and it wouldn’t surprise me if his value increases as this season wears on, but he’s not the type that needs to be rostered in redraft leagues at the moment.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs GB)

After the early CeeDee Lamb departure on Sunday, it was the Jake Ferguson show, something we saw for the bulk of Week 2 and could continue moving forward, given the frame of the tight end.

Pickens is being utilized in several different ways, but he remains a versatile field stretcher, and Lamb is capable of winning at all three levels. It appears that Ferguson has distanced himself from the other tertiary options in the chain-moving role in Dallas, a valuable one given the pass-happy nature of this offense.

The recent volume surge is unlikely to stick, but 5-6 catches every week as a part of an offense that can generate scoring situations is more than enough to land you in my top 10 at the position, even in a tough spot against the Packers.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (vs MIN)

Jonnu Smith has caught 92.3% of his targets, and that sounds great as he is coming off a league-winning type of season.

That crazy efficiency has netted 65 yards, and the only reason there is a touchdown on the board is because Aaron Rodgers called one of those near-forward-handoff jet-sweep type of plays inside the 10-yard line back in Week 1.

Smith was great last season.

Smith is not worth consideration this season.

Both things can be, and are, in my opinion, true. He and Pat Freiermuth have six cumulative games played this season and one finish better than TE25 through three weeks. If you told me that one of them took over the role full-time, I’m still not positive we are looking at a locked-in starter, which is why I’m fine with both being on waiver wires.

Juwan Johnson | NO (at BUF)

Juwan Johnson has nothing but top 10 finishes on his 2025 resume, and that’s pretty hard to overstate.

Not only is he the only player at the position who can claim this feat through three weeks this season, but it’s also a mark that Brock Bowers didn’t surpass during his historic 2024 campaign.

The term “regression” is going to be thrown around plenty, and I get it. None of us wants to be THIS wrong on a player, and the fact that the Saints as a team have managed just 47 points this season is reason enough to fear the future.

But what looks off?

Johnson’s 67.9% catch rate isn’t unreasonable, and 9.3 yards per catch is actually below what we’d expect. The argument would be against the sheer volume of targets, but why?

Do you expect the game script ever to favor the Saints? Forget this week. This team has a claim to be the worst in the NFL and will be in catch-up mode for most of the season, making the sky-high pass rate likely to hang around.

Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed had combined to see 57 passes thrown their way through three weeks, so it’s not as if Johnson is benefiting from the other options not getting opportunities through the air.

His current 108 catches are optimistic, though I don’t think 90+ is the least bit out of the question, and that role puts you in the must-start tier at the TE position in the year 2025.

“League winner” might be a bit strong, but if you built a strong roster and were quick to add Johnson to a TE-needy roster, you could be looking back in three months at a Wednesday in early September as the day you won your fantasy football title!

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (vs WAS)

This guy.

Kyle Pitts posts a monster rookie season, and we all fall for it, only to get burned for three years.

Kyle Pitts is the seventh-highest scoring TE after Week 1 this season. We all fall for it.

Kyle Pitts sees the first target of Week 3 in a plus-matchup against the Panthers.

OK, so maybe that last micro example is a little small, but you get the idea. After that TE7- finish against the Buccaneers in the opener, Pitts doesn’t have a finish better than 17th at the position, failing to reach 40 receiving yards on both occasions.

The shortened depth of target (4.8 yards, down from 8.7 last season) should give us a reasonable floor to bank on from this prospect that we once viewed as having access to an elite ceiling, but it really hasn’t.

These 5-7 target games are going to keep piling up. Still, unless Penix takes a massive step forward, we are looking at another disappointing season from Pitts that sees him finish outside of starting lineups with far more consistency than he punishes you for ignoring him.

Kyle Pitts v. WAS: stop trying to make Kyle Pitts happen! I can’t! The Falcons struggled in WK3 but Pitts was open often. Commanders give up 5th most points to fantasy TEs this season. Michael Penix JR needs to find Pitts! Look at how open Pitts is here! pic.twitter.com/up3wgZRTeN

— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) September 24, 2025

The versatility of Robinson, along with the health of Mooney, makes Pitts far from a priority in the pass game.

He’s a streamer and has fallen behind two AFC East tight ends and is my TE2 in this game.

Mark Andrews | BAL (at KC)

With Isaiah Likely’s return nearing, we finally got the explosive Mark Andrews game that we were waiting for.

Only time will tell about the usage of these two, not to mention the dynamic player in Zay Flowers — quiet on Monday night after a strong start to the season — but I think Andrews is exactly who we thought he was.

A tight end who needs touchdowns to drive his value and is in a better position to score consistently than most.

The volume on Monday was great to see (five catches before any of his teammates had even four targets), but that’s not where you’re hanging your hat.

He scored 11 times a season ago thanks to earning a target on 28.3% of his red zone routes, and he’s at 27.3% through three weeks this season. I’d recommend selling high after the strong performance against the Lions, but my hunch is that the first two weeks did too much damage to allow for that.

But if he scores again in this spot and your league is back to labeling him as a top-five player at the position, that’s when you cash in the chips.

Mike Gesicki | CIN (at DEN)

The lone leg that Mike Gesicki truthers had to lean on in the past was the sheer volume of routes, and that’s now gone with Noah Fant running north of 12 routes per game while accounting for the only TE score in Cincinnati this season.

The quality of targets is very much in question for this offense sans Joe Burrow, and with Gesicki playing 39.2% of offensive snaps through three weeks, not to mention earning less than a target per five routes, there’s just no real path to consistent viability.

And yes, if you want to change your team name, which was stacked with Burrow and Tee Higgins this summer, to “no real path to consistent viability,” I’ll co-sign it.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs MIN)

Pat Freiermuth has never been a volume target earner, but with under five targets in all three games with Aaron Rodgers, he’s taking “little involvement” to a new level.

Fantasy managers were hopeful that Rodgers would allow Freiermuth to access his nose for the end zone (seven scores in both 2021 and 2022), but it would appear that ship has sailed.

Through three weeks, Freiermuth doesn’t yet have a top 25 finish at the position, and if I had to bet, he’ll finish outside of that mark more often than inside it the rest of the way.

I prefer Smith over Freiermuth on this team, but if either is in the conversation for your lineup, can I convince you to study up on fantasy basketball?

Sam LaPorta | DET (vs CLE)

I think we are on some thin ice with Sam LaPorta.

We know that the running game is how Detroit prefers to move the ball, and that will emphasize per-target upside for their pass catchers.

St. Brown and Williams don’t have a problem on that front, but LaPorta? After seeing 18.1% of his targets a season ago come 15+ yards downfield, he’s yet to see such a look in 2023.

I could overlook the shrinking aDOT (5.2 yards this season, 7.8 in 2024) if the TD equity were there, but it’s not and has been trending in the wrong direction since his stellar rookie campaign.

Red zone route rate:

• 2023: 23.1%
• 2024: 21.5%
• 2023: 13.3%

If he’s going to lack volume as a result of the running game, downfield shots due to the strengths of his teammates, and red zone volume in this new system, what is left to bet on?

I don’t doubt that he’ll continue to be efficient, but I think we see a lot more TE15 finishes than TE5 ones moving forward, and that’s not going to cut it given what you were looking for when you drafted him this summer.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at PIT)

All plays count the same, but Hockenson managers have to feel awfully fortunate with the way that Sunday ran out.

With the Vikings up by 38 points, Hock came up clutch with a five-yard TD to remove all doubt.

Without that catch, he’s not a top-15 performer for the week, but with it, top-5. That’s the nature of the position and exactly why I’d be looking to sell Hockenson today if at all possible.

The blowout on Sunday means we really have no idea what this pass game looks like in terms of target distribution. J.J. McCarthy’s recovery timetable remains fluid, and Jordan Addison is eligible to return this week.

In essence, you got lucky to get the production you did over the weekend, and that inflated stat line, along with name value, puts you in a position to cash in a chip if you want to.

Is Hockenson a weekly starter?

Probably.

Is he much better than Hunter Henry or Brent Strange?

For my money, no. Hockenson isn’t a bad option, but if you can deal with him in the name of improving the depth of your team elsewhere and bank on piecing together the TE position, I think I would.

Travis Kelce | KC (vs BAL)

I don’t have a “miscommunications” tab in any of my spreadsheets. But it certainly looks like the Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce tandem is already flirting with a season high in terms of easy button completions that have been missed.

The future Hall of Fame tight end, you could argue, cost the Chiefs a chance at victory in Week 2 in the Super Bowl rematch and very possibly cost you your matchup in Week 3 by turning seven targets into just 26 scoreless yards.

These struggles are exacerbated by Worthy’s absence and Rice’s suspension. Maybe the value of every target increases in the second half of this season due to overall offensive stability. But the juice doesn’t seem to be there, and the Chiefs have shown us in the past that they will do what they can to save the peak version of Kelce for January.

Kelce is my TE11 this week against a Ravens team on short rest, and I’m more worried about being too high on him than too low.

Trey McBride | ARI (vs SEA)

Trey McBride has been a top 12 tight end in all three weeks this season and now has the second-longest active streak of 5+ reception games with five in a row (Puka Nacua is playing a different sport with 11 straight).

The volume is as safe as it gets. While the TD equity is traditionally low, it was nice to see a Kyler Murray rollout touchdown pass to McBride on the sideline over the weekend (his first career touchdown coming before late October).

Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t lived up to the hype, and that puts McBride in a position to challenge Brock Bowers for the throne at the position. In fact, he’s overtaken him in my rest-of-season rankings, with the thought being that he has the better quarterback and, at this point, less target competition.

Tucker Kraft | GB (at DAL)

After scoring in each of the first two weeks this season, Tucker Kraft fell well short of expectations in Cleveland over the weekend, catching three of four targets for an underwhelming 29 yards.

I could not be less worried. Kraft remains a top 5 tight end for me moving forward, and if a buy-low opportunity presents itself, I’m in.

Despite being quiet all game, where was Jordan Love looking with the game on the line?

Kraft hauled in a short pass and picked up 18 yards on a reception with under three minutes left in a tied game, putting the Packers in position to try a go-ahead field goal.

The game obviously didn’t end the way Cheeseheads wanted it to, but Kraft making the big play is telling for a team that lacks a true go-to option. John FitzPatrick caught both of his targets on Sunday for 12 yards and a score while Love was in scramble mode. Give that production to Kraft, the spot most TE production in Green Bay goes, and he’s flirting with the top 5 at the position for the week.

Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are a cut above. After that, it’s a toss-up. Whether you want to put Kraft, Tyler Warren, Jake Ferguson, Sam LaPorta, or someone else in the next spot, the idea is that it’s a conversation, and that means you’re profiting long-term with your August investment.

Tyler Warren | IND (at LAR)

The George Kittle comparison seemed premature a few weeks ago, but with each passing game, it feels increasingly accurate.

The YAC potential is advanced beyond his years and is something the Colts are leaning into (5.2-yard aDOT this season, 1.4 in Week 3). That’s going to make him a fantasy asset far more often than not, so I’m not worried about the iffy stat line (3-38-0) in a 21-point win over the Titans.

Part of that blowout win came on the heels of a 46-yard Jonathan Taylor run, a splash play that was made possible thanks to Warren lining up as a fullback and delivering the bone-crunching block.

I don’t play in any points-per-block leagues, but the ability to physically impose his will is something I’m encouraged by and trust to translate in a big way when he has the ball in his hands.

Warren is my TE3 for the week and for the next three months.

Zach Ertz | WAS (at ATL)

You mean a blowout game script where your backup QB is playing is bad for business for a volume-dependent tight end?

Zach Ertz has been held to under 40 receiving yards this season, and his efficiency-based game is a roll of the dice when Jayden Daniels is healthy, never mind when he’s not. I’m operating under the assumption that QB1 will be back under center this weekend and thus put Ertz in a better spot to give us the 8-10 PPR points that we’ve come to expect.

It’s not exciting, but that projection is enough to slide into my top 15 at the position this week, a threshold he’ll fall out of if this Daniels injury lingers.