((Newsnation))– with Official data Suspended The government closingEconomists resort to special reports and early signs, according to Moody’s, not good.
“This data shows that the labor market is weak and increases weaker Sunday wrote.
Zandy referred to two separate private reports – from ADP and Revilio laboratories – Which, when its average is calculated together, indicates that there was no “job growth” last month.
the Monthly job report From the salary processing company, ADP has shown the United States that watered 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September.
However, this probably “reduces the decline,” as Zandy pointed out, because “government workers certainly fell in the month given the ongoing discounts related to Doge.”
The most prominent ADP report is a familiar story: the few functions that are added approximately Everything in health careAnd it is mostly of the big employers, with 500 workers or more, they employ.
“The smaller companies suffer from definitions and restrictions of migration,” Zandy wrote.
A separate report on the local workforce company Revilio Labz provided a little better news, as the United States estimated nearly 60,000 jobs in September. But the details draw a less pink image. Zandy said that “trivial gains” were largely driven by education and health care – and “almost exclusive” by California, New York and Massachusetts.
While the private data helps fill the void, no alternative to the weight of the official numbers from the work statistics office, which is carried, which It was not released last week Due to the constant closure.
This economists and policymakers have left blindly to a decisive moment for the American economy, as the labor market weakens and inflation.
“There is no more important economic data, especially now, when the labor market is decline and the federal reserve is a few weeks from another meeting when it must decide whether it will continue to reduce interest rates,” Zandy said.
To date, lack of data Wall Street did not deterHowever, the main indexes are still hovering near their highest levels ever.
Will the Federal Reserve continue to reduce interest rates?
Federal Reserve Reduce interest rates For the first time this year in September, quoting the weak labor market, even with inflation remaining higher than its 2 % goal.
It is widely expected that policymakers reduce prices again later this month, with 95 % of traders pricing a quarter of a point reduction,According to the CME Fedwatch tool.
However, the data is a wild card, and if it continues, officials may be more frequency in the pieces.
“I consider that the job office’s job office data is the best source of data ever in jobs and statistics in the entire world,” Austan Folsby, President and CEO of the FBI in Chicago, Marktplace said In a recent interview. “If we do not have it, this is a problem.”
Now, the federal reserve Facing pressure On both sides of its double mandate – Inflation rises While the labor market weakens. I left politicians without any clear path forward, or they had to choose between reducing rates to support or keeping the labor market constantly in inflation.
“We were 4 1/2 years over 2 % and now he is enlarged at a height,” said Golsby. “This makes me feel nervous from the front loading a lot of price cuts.”
If the closure continues, the inflation data due in mid -October can also be delayed, and unlike employment, there are a few reliable private indicators.
“I still think the basic economy is a very strong economy and we can get a fair amount,” said Golsby. “I just want to be careful [of] Excessive front loading before we have evidence. ”
Inflation numbers in September are also determined by amending the cost of social security next year, which means advertising It can be delayed If the data does not arrive on time.