With the art world increasingly immersed in the broader luxury ecosystem – shaped by changing spending patterns and new geographies of wealth – and auction houses increasingly relying on luxury categories to drive growth in volume rather than value across price points, it is now essential to look beyond art-specific indicators and adopt a multi-sector lens when analyzing the market. Luxury industry reports now provide a crucial measure of where the art market may be headed, especially as recent surveys rank art as the worst-performing personal luxury good. This finding alone suggests that the art market still has meaningful ground to cover in responding to behavioral shifts among high-net-worth individuals that adjacent industries have already begun to navigate.
One of the most closely monitored benchmarks in this context is the annual luxury study produced by Bain & Company in collaboration with Fondazione Altagamma. According to the latest release, the global personal luxury goods market has entered a phase of stabilization amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and continued rise in prices. After reaching €364 billion in 2024, total sales are expected to reach €358 billion in 2025, reflecting a modest decline of 2 percent, effectively translating into flat performance at constant exchange rates. More broadly, global spending on luxury goods reached €1.44 trillion in 2025, a marginal contraction of 1-3% compared to 2024 at current exchange rates, while remaining stable when adjusted for currency fluctuations. The second half of the year showed a sequential improvement in the market’s trajectory, indicating early signs of renewed momentum despite continuing economic headwinds.
The survey also confirms that second-hand luxury goods are gaining momentum. The sector is estimated to reach €50 billion in 2025, growing by 4-6 percent and outpacing growth in new luxury goods. The strong performance in both hard and soft luxury products underscores the structural shift in consumer behavior towards circulation, longevity and value retention. Clearly, auctioneers have taken notice, as evidenced by the increased focus on luxury collectibles and the expansion of cross-category sales among major houses.
But at the heart of the study is a clear focus on how luxury, in the post-pandemic era, will shift decisively towards experience-based consumption, which continues to drive momentum. The center of gravity of luxury has moved from objects to experiences – from possession to access – as affluent consumers redirect spending towards mobility, personalization and emotional gratification. This shift has important implications for the art world, particularly as it seeks to engage a broader, affluent audience beyond traditional patrons and connoisseurs.
In 2025, luxury experiences again outperformed products, rising by nearly 3%, supported by a structural reallocation of spending towards health, pampering and socializing. Luxury hospitality was up 3% year-on-year, while fine dining maintained a steady global growth trajectory, up 5% since 2024 and more than 20% since 2019. Private jets and yachts are on a similar upward trajectory, up 9% since 2024 and 43-45% since 2019, as the market shifts toward “mobility as a service,” with affluent consumers increasingly favoring flexibility. Formats such as fractional ownership and subscription models. By contrast, as affluent consumers adopt more flexible lifestyles across geographies and become less inclined to own assets with high maintenance and logistics costs, the luxury car market declined by 6 percent from the previous year.
Surveys also indicate rapid evolution of consumer profiles, with buyers entering the younger demographic and prioritizing longevity, activity and luxury. This shift is consistent with broader hospitality dynamics, including reports that upscale restaurants are offering smaller portions at the same or even higher prices. However, fine dining remains on a sustainable growth trajectory, up 5 percent since 2024 and 39-41 percent since 2019, supported by emerging fine dining hubs in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, coupled with the growing share of high-casual dining among younger audiences.
In this landscape, an estimated decline of around 9% stands out in the art sector, compared to luxury cars at 6% but noticeably weaker than in jewellery, which registered a decline of just 2% since 2024, to almost €32 billion, and is still up 25-27% since 2019. Meanwhile, watches and apparel have remained broadly stable, despite polarization in performance between players and price points. The watch sector has shown resilience at both the high end and entry end of the market, along with a particularly active secondary market, where tariffs and rising retail prices have pushed some consumers towards second-hand alternatives.
The survey acknowledges that although the luxury market remains resilient, it is not immune to persistent macroeconomic headwinds and global uncertainty, both of which are impacting consumer confidence. Bain & Company expects a recovery in 2026, anticipating a moderate expansion of 3-5 percent. These forecasts assume continued US momentum supported by strong financial markets, continued resilience in Europe, strong domestic demand in Japan, and steady progress in China’s recovery. The scenario closely mirrors expectations circulating in the art world following last year’s record-setting fourth quarter — a moment widely described as hopeful and clarifying.
Geographically, Europe remains the largest market for luxury personal goods despite a slight contraction in 2025, reaching €110 billion, largely driven by increased tourism spending. It is worth noting that this dynamism does not necessarily translate to the art market, where the UK and Europe are even losing their position in second place. The Americas maintains second place in luxury consumption and has emerged as the most resilient region this year. In Asia, mainland China recorded another significant decline, albeit less pronounced than in 2024, maintaining its ranking in third place, while Japan saw a notable correction after its record performance in 2024.
The report also highlights emerging markets as new avenues for growth, with Latin America, India, Southeast Asia and Africa expected to add more than 50 million upper-middle-class luxury consumers by 2030. Together, these markets are expected to represent €40-45 billion in total retail sales value, equivalent to the luxury goods market in mainland China in 2025.
Formula for longevity?
Total spending on luxury goods, including goods and experiences, is expected to grow by 4-6% annually over the next decade, reaching an estimated €2.2-2.7 trillion by 2035. The report also identifies three key forces shaping the future of luxury: entertainment, emotions and ethics – terms that could easily describe the art world’s core strengths, although they are often diluted at their highest levels. In order to reignite growth and sustain demand, Bain & Company’s annual luxury study suggests that the art world must embrace a framework grounded in inclusivity and engagement rather than exclusivity.
Interestingly, the survey suggests that luxury is making a comeback in 2025 as brands expand into adjacent and lower-income categories. Accessible luxury has emerged as the most dynamic sector, with nearly 50 percent of brands expected to grow in 2025, compared to about 25 percent in aspirational luxury and 35 percent in absolute luxury. This sector is strategically important to attract and retain younger demographics – an imperative that has been frequently discussed in the art world as the broader luxury industry faces a changing demographic landscape. Compared to 2024, the sector has lost nearly 20 million consumers, underscoring the urgent need to rebuild its base.
Millennials account for about 46 percent of total spending on luxury goods, down slightly from 2024. Generation Z showed pockets of promise, with some brands posting growth despite the complexity of the group. More engaged and more critical, more open but less loyal, Generation Z prioritizes individual identity over group affiliation and values brands based on cultural significance rather than status alone.
At the same time, younger generations are entering the market earlier, older groups remain engaged longer, and legacy customers continue to express a lifelong appetite for luxury. More than 70% of lapsed customers say they plan to resume buying within three years, while 90% of current buyers plan to continue spending, especially Generation Z and high-net-worth individuals. It is worth noting that optimism in the art world is increasingly concentrated at the top and bottom of the market.
The findings demonstrate that meeting these evolving behaviors and sustainable engagement requires differentiated journeys that integrate digital, physical and social experiences into cohesive storytelling ecosystems. In other words, the art world needs to meet consumers where they are. But the defining characteristics of the coming era of luxury remain open to interpretation. In the survey, Bain & Company notes that longevity should be based on key pillars: ethics and responsibility, cultural relevance, emotional engagement, and sustainable creative innovation. To target and retain buyers, brands must create once-in-a-lifetime personalized experiences, innovate across every touchpoint in the experiential and narrative journey, and cultivate deep emotional connections.
For the art market, still recalibrating itself after downturns and grappling with similarly changing audiences, these pillars may provide not only context but a potential blueprint for future sustainability—a blueprint that can rely less on ownership and taste and more on access, meaningful experiences, and active cultural engagement.
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