It was at this time, nearly three years ago, that I wrote a story about whether Baker Mayfield could revive his career with the Bucs. Mayfield was a free agent after an up-and-down 2022 season that left his career at a crossroads. To that end, his journey paralleled Saints legendary quarterback – and upcoming Class of 2026 Hall of Famer – Drew Brees.
Back then, it was an interesting comparison, with Mayfield and Brees each showing promise with the Browns and Chargers, respectively. The former was traded away after playing through a labrum injury during his last year in Cleveland, while the latter suffered a torn labrum in the final game of the 2005 season. Through the first five seasons of their careers, their records and statistics nearly mirrored one another.
Drew Brees from 2001-2005: 30-28 record, 12,348 passing yards, 80 touchdowns, 53 interceptions
Baker Mayfield from 2018-2022: 31-38 record, 16,288 passing yards, 102 touchdowns, 64 interceptions
Now, even the biggest optimist would not say Mayfield would suddenly become an elite quarterback like Brees, who produced at a historic level in New Orleans. But looking at how Mayfield’s first three years in Tampa Bay again compare to him is worth analyzing.
Baker Mayfield Continues To Mirror Drew Brees’ NFL Career
It is one thing that Baker Mayfield’s first five seasons were similar by the numbers to Drew Brees, but it is another for what a larger sample size of eight seasons has to say. Since signing with the Bucs in March 2023, Mayfield has established himself as a franchise quarterback and long-term solution to Tampa Bay’s quarterback plans.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today
It has been a best-case scenario, as the team has remained successful with three playoff appearances in the last four years after its previous Super Bowl window closed.
To a similar extent, Brees did the same thing with the Saints in transforming their franchise.
Everyone now looks at his tenure there as one where he had unprecedented efficiency and gaudy stat lines. What is ignored is that team success did not start immediately, and there were some lulls where New Orleans had .500 or below seasons.
Diving deeper, here is how they compare after their first three seasons in new homes:
Drew Brees from 2006-2008: 25-23 record, 13,910 passing yards, 88 touchdowns, 46 interceptions, 2x Pro Bowler
Baker Mayfield from 2023-2025: 27-24 record, 12,237 passing yards, 95 touchdowns, 37 interceptions, 2x Pro Bowler
There is no denying that up to age 30, each roughly produced at a similar level with some stylistic differences in how they got there. While Brees relied on pinpoint accuracy, Mayfield plays more like a gunslinger who has evolved into a bit of a scrambler over the last two seasons. Mayfield has rushed for 923 yards and five touchdowns in the regular season from 2023-25, while Brees totaled 83 yards rushing and one touchdown over his first three-year span with the Saints.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Legendary QB Drew Brees – Photo by: USA Today
How close this comparison remains in the future hinges largely on what happens next in 2026.
Baker Mayfield Has A Career-Defining 2026 Season Ahead Of Him
Turning 31 years old this April, Baker Mayfield is entering the next chapter of his career. Mayfield is in a contract year entering 2026, and it remains up for debate whether the Bucs will extend him this offseason or wait until this time next offseason.
This storyline comes after a disappointing year for him and the rest of the team. While he played like an MVP through nine games, he was one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league over the final eight games as the team limped to an 8-9 finish – likely due to a myriad of injuries he suffered during the season.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today
That sets the stage for a career-defining 2026.
In the prime of his career, the best version of Mayfield should be now – this season.
A return to his 2024 is more than possible under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and a team turnaround is not completely improbable. Looking at who is in Super Bowl LX, no one would have expected the Patriots to make it after finishing 4-13 the year before. Even the Seahawks, in a stacked NFC West, emerged from the conference with a new quarterback at the helm no less.
Or what about what happened back in 2009?
The Saints were coming off an 8-8 2008 season, having the best scoring offense and the 26th scoring defense. Things improved in 2009, as they went 13-3 with the top scoring offense and the 20th scoring defense. Their defensive deficiencies did not stop them from beating the Colts 31-17 and winning their first Super Bowl.
What Brees did in his fourth season in New Orleans should be the blueprint for Mayfield in his fourth season in Tampa Bay. One can look at next season and see no hope; with no chance the defense can improve enough to make this team a Super Bowl contender.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today
It is worth looking at differently, though.
Head coach Todd Bowles does not need to turn his unit into the 2002 Bucs defense in order for this team to win the Super Bowl. Vast improvements must be made, and talent needs to be added, but they still were the 20th-ranked scoring defense in 2025. If they can improve and enter the top 10 in 2026, how far they go will be determined on how Mayfield and the offense plays.
He will have to play like an MVP for a full regular season and postseason run, but crazier things have happened.
If Baker Mayfield can pull it off, the comparison to Drew Brees may not look too crazy after all.