With the recent launch of Sumer Sports’ Sumer Brain, we can look at the Bucs game matchups with all new eyes. And while that data is still publicly available without a paywall let’s use it to dive deep into the upcoming matchup on Sunday between the 4-1 Bucs and the 4-1 49ers.
49ers Offense On First Down
The 49ers prefer to be in heavier packages on first down, using an extra tight end or a fullback on over 75% of their early downs. This will force the Bucs to utilize their base defensive personnel more than they have in other games. What will be interesting is what type of base defense Todd Bowles decides to implement as we have seen three versions this season.
The most common base formation the Bucs use is a 3-4 front that looks like a five-man surface with Yaya Diaby and Haason Reddick flanking Vita Vea, Logan Hall and Greg Gaines. But Bowles has experimented with two different types of 4-3 packages. In Week 1 he used a similar player grouping but used Hall as a heavy end and dropped Reddick to the second level as a stack-linebacker. This package was largely a success.
Last week the Bucs used their nickel fronts with an extra off-ball linebacker is a traditional 4-3, with Deion Jones getting some play next to SirVocea Dennis and Lavonte David. My hope is that Bowles goes back to the Week 1 changeup in this matchup.
Despite the heavier lineups the 49ers still try to pass on first down a decent bit, throwing the ball almost 60% of the time with fullback Kyle Juszczyk playing a role. By using Reddick in an off-ball capacity the Bucs could use Dennis as an add-on rusher to create advantageous matchups for Vea and Diaby and limit his coverage responsibilities. In doing so, Bowles can limit Dennis’ exposure to Christian McCaffrey in man coverage, which is a clear matchup advantage for San Francisco.
Quarterback Mac Jones
With Brock Purdy still out with an injury Mac Jones will lead the 49ers offense today, and he’s banged up a bit, playing with knee and oblique injuries. Jones is a quick-game/short-field merchant. Just 5.4% of his passes have stretched the field past 20 air yards. This gives the Bucs an opportunity to play with an extra man in the box, where strong safety Tykee Smith thrives. By getting Smith closer to the line of scrimmage, the Bucs can try and create rotations that make him responsible for Christian McCaffrey and give the best possible personnel matchup.
49ers QB Mac Jones – Photo by: USA Today
The Bucs will also need to have a plan for Jones’ quick release. He is second among the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this year with an average time to throw of 2.55 seconds. This will make it difficult for the Bucs pass rush to get home unless they change up some of their coverage schematics. Todd Bowles will need to find ways to re-route receivers at the line of scrimmage and change the picture post snap to delay Jones’ release.
Blitzing may not be the best way to rattle Jones. He is one of the most successful quarterbacks under pressure this year and because of his quick release.
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 12, 2025
Bucs’ Blitz and Rush Tendencies
If the Bucs want to generate pressure via the blitz they may need to commit fully. Against five-man rushes the 49ers offense has generated a +0.74 EPA/play. And against six-man pressures they generate a +0.24 EPA/play. But when they face seven or more rushers those numbers fall into the negative.
Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As Todd Bowles did last week on the play that led to Lavonte David’s interception, he may need to be judicious on when – and how – he sends extra rushers. Bowles blitzed both SirVocea Dennis and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. on that play with Dennis occupying the blocking back, which allowed Winfield to come free and pressure Sam Darnold into throwing an interception.
Similarly, the Bucs love to run games up front and are one of the stunt heaviest teams in the NFL. The 49ers do well against these types of rushes with a positive EPA/play. Despite that success, which is less than against traditional four-man rushes, I still think keeping with the stunts and twists on early downs is a successful strategy, but on third down mixing those strategic heavy blitzes with bails from overloaded fronts while giving the Bucs edge rushers opportunities to win one-on-one.