College football Week 5 had been hotly anticipated since the release of the schedule, and it didn’t disappoint. We had high-scoring shootouts, nail-biting overtime games, and a series of shocks that reset what we thought we knew about the landscape. How did those results shake up the postseason race?
Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 6 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones
- No. 11 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies
- No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers
- No. 9 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Bouncing back from their defeat to the Ole Miss Rebels in style with a dominant Week 5 win, the Tulane Green Wave lead the way for the Group of Five teams in our college football bowl projections. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that The American will provide a team to the playoff, and Jon Sumrall’s team now has a 21.6% chance of winning the conference.
Our College Football Playoff predictions pit them against the Iowa State Cyclones, with Matt Campbell’s team seemingly on an unstoppable path to the Big 12 title behind a strong defense and the arm of Rocco Becht. The Cyclones’ 49.3% chances of reaching the 12-team postseason tournament are only bettered by four other teams, and they’re now favored to win the Big 12.
The Miami Hurricanes are currently the third-ranked team in the AP Poll, so seeing them as the 11th seed in our college football bowl projections might seem a little off to some people. However, Mario Cristobal’s team still has to win on the road at the Florida State Seminoles, and there is a game against the SMU Mustangs looming as a potential banana skin. The ACC isn’t strong enough to propel a team to the top of the rankings.
While a 16-10 win over the Auburn Tigers may not scream dominance, the Texas A&M Aggies are slowly becoming one of the most dangerous teams in the country. The defense is a terrifying proposition to face, and they have monsters all across the offensive line, which is exactly what you need to thrive in the SEC. Mike Elko’s team currently has a 20.6% chance to reach the conference title game and a 48.9% shot at the playoff.
MORE: Week 5 College Football Team of the Week
If the old cliché holds that defense wins championships, the Oklahoma Sooners should be in with as good a chance of becoming national champions as any of the 136 FBS teams. Brent Venables’ team’s 96.8 PFSN College DEFi score leads the nation heading into Week 6. It remains to be seen how long quarterback John Mateer will be out, and how that impacts the chances of the Sooners’ marching towards an SEC title berth.
Our college football bowl projections see the Sooners take on the Tennessee Volunteers, who survived a scare against a surging Mississippi State Bulldogs team to maintain on course for a place in the College Football Playoff. Josh Heupel’s team has a 45.8% chance of being one of the 12 teams in the postseason tournament following their 41-34 win on the road in Week 5.
The Texas Longhorns were on a bye this weekend ahead of four consecutive games away from Austin. The program still has to face four teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Texas A&M), and a defeat in one of those games could significantly hamper their postseason aspirations. Steve Sarkisian’s team is no longer the SEC favorite.
Although Iowa State has overtaken them as the projected Big 12 champion, the Texas Tech Red Raiders still have a chance of securing a place in the College Football Playoff. Joey McGuire’s men avoid the Cyclones in the regular season, resulting in the potential for two undefeated teams competing in Arlington. A one-loss Big 12 team should be good enough for a playoff spot.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 5 Iowa State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 9 Texas
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Oklahoma
The PFSN College FPM gives Texas A&M a 53.8% chance of beating Miami in the first round, leaning on home-field advantage to book a quarterfinal matchup with the Oregon Ducks. Dan Lanning’s team made a statement with its Week 5 win over the Penn State Nittany Lions, and they’d be a five-point favorite over the Aggies in a neutral game environment.
We’ll find out just how good the Indiana Hoosiers are in Week 7 when they face Oregon, but right now, Curt Cignetti’s team has passed every test they’ve faced. They boast a 51.0% chance of reaching the playoff after their Week 5 win over Iowa. A projected matchup with Iowa State brings together two of college football’s best quarterbacks, Rocco Becht and Fernando Mendoza.
Led by Trinidad Chambliss and a top-30 defense, the Ole Miss Rebels are on a collision course with the SEC Championship Game (43.6%) and have the highest chance of reaching the College Football Playoff (80.4%) according to the PFSN FPM. Our college football bowl projections bring about a likely repeat of the SEC title game, and beating the same team twice in a season is historically and famously difficult.
The Ohio State Buckeyes demonstrated their dominance in Week 5, casting aside a Washington Huskies side that boasts one of the top offenses in the country. It isn’t easy to win back-to-back titles, but Ryan Day’s team has the pieces on both sides of the ball to fear no opponent. Their matchup with Oklahoma in these college football bowl projections brings together two great defenses, with the Buckeyes given 73.8% win probability.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 9 Texas
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Iowa State
Oregon’s win over Penn State in Week 5 showcased why they’ve consistently been a feature in our college football playoff predictions. Dante Moore is developing into one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The offensive line is a top-15 unit, and the defense ranks in the top-25 of PFSN’s College DEFi metric. Texas is arguably better on defense, but could Arch Manning out-duel Moore? I don’t know about that.
Iowa State in the college football playoff semifinal? It might seem like a pipe dream for a Cyclones program that hasn’t even won the Big 12 under head coach Campbell, but this team is built a little differently from the ones we’ve seen in the past. There is a definite path to success, but the Buckeyes would be a sizeable roadblock to the ultimate success. PFSN FPM gives Ohio State a 75.5% win probability in this projected matchup.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon
This has been a consistent conclusion to our college football bowl predictions since the start of the season, and there is little to suggest that we should deviate from this College Football Playoff National Championship Game premonition just yet. Dante Moore vs. Julian Sayin could be an elite quarterback matchup, and both teams boast top-25 defenses heading into Week 6 of the season.
MORE: Week 5 College Football Players of the Week
But who would win? The Buckeyes have a 60.5% win probability on a neutral field, according to our PFSN CFB FPM, and while this clash would likely be closer than the Rose Bowl beatdown that Oregon suffered in the playoff last year, Ohio State’s better defense and offensive line would likely prove the difference-maker. Can the Buckeyes go back-to-back? You bet they can.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
North Carolina Central vs. Alabama State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
Boise State vs. California
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Delaware vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Cure Bowl
James Madison vs. Rice
68 Ventures Bowl
Toledo vs. Southern Miss
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Old Dominion
Gasparilla Bowl
South Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
UNLV vs. Western Michigan
Boca Raton Bowl
Buffalo vs. New Mexico
New Orleans Bowl
Texas State vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
UConn vs. San Diego State
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. East Carolina
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Nebraska
Rate Bowl
Kansas vs. Iowa
First Responder Bowl
UTSA vs. UCF
Military Bowl
NC State vs. Memphis
Pinstripe Bowl
Florida State vs. Maryland
Fenway Bowl
Syracuse vs. Navy
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Baylor
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Fresno State vs. Ohio
New Mexico Bowl
Utah State vs. Appalachian State
Gator Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Birmingham Bowl
North Texas vs. Auburn
Independence Bowl
TCU vs. Arizona
Music City Bowl
Illinois vs. South Carolina
Alamo Bowl
BYU vs. Arizona State
ReliaQuest Bowl
Penn State vs. Georgia
Sun Bowl
Duke vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Alabama
Las Vegas Bowl
USC vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Kennesaw State
Liberty Bowl
Houston vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Louisville vs. LSU
Holiday Bowl
Virginia vs. Utah
Bahamas Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Bowling Green