The Bucs came to terms with right tackle Luke Goedeke on a well-deserved contract extension that will pay him $93.406 million over the next five years. Not too long after they also locked up cornerback Zyon McCollum to a three-year, $48 million extension of his own. The two former 2022 draft mates joined Tristan Wirfs, Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield Jr., Ben Bredeson, Chris Godwin Jr., and Vita Vea as players who the team has significant cash investments in beyond 2025.
Tampa Bay has proven under general manager Jason Licht’s tenure that the team will invest in its home-grown talent. But with so much talent blossoming and Goedeke now locked in at the third-highest APY for a right tackle in the league while Zyon comes in at tied for 21st at cornerback, how much longer can the Bucs keep their “window” open?
Growing Salary Cap And The Bucs’ Spending Habits
Those eight players are due just under $170 million next year. That may seem like a lot or even cost prohibitive. But it’s not.
The salary cap in 2026 will likely be $300 million or more. And even with those eight players drawing large salaries the team still has less than $214 million in salary commitments for the 43 players under contract in 2026. The Bucs typically keep their cash spending around the salary cap. Assuming that remains static in 2026, the Bucs would still have around $100 million to work with once their 2025 rollover is factored in.
Bucs assistant GM Mike Greenberg – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Incoming Extensions And Re-Signings
That $100 million won’t solely be dedicated to external free agents. Tampa Bay has several notable pending free agents themselves.
Inside linebacker Lavonte David, wide receiver Mike Evans, outside linebacker Haason Reddick, tight end Cade Otton, running back Rachaad White, safety Christian Izien and defensive tackle Greg Gaines are all under deals that expire after this season. Add in that the 2023 draft class will be extension eligible and several players from that draft class are already playing at a level that would require large extensions.
Outside linebacker Yaya Diaby is setting himself up for a payday of $15 million per year or more. Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and right guard Cody Mauch were on similar trajectories before succumbing to season-ending injuries this past week. And Baker Mayfield will be in line for an extension that comes with an increased salary. That’s a lot of mouths to feed.
Some decisions will have to be made. Based on current valuations here is what each player could cost annually next year.
- Baker Mayfield – $55 million
- Rachaad White – $6 million
- Mike Evans – $24 million
- Cade Otton – $13 million
- Yaya Diaby – $17 million
- Haason Reddick – $22 million
- Lavonte David – $9 million
- Christian Izien – $3 million
Now before you yell at me, “There’s no way they can afford all of that!” keep in mind that not all of these deals are required to get done next season. Mauch had a valuation of $15.5 million and Kancey’s was $20 million prior to their injuries. There is a much smaller chance they will receive extensions this upcoming offseason now.
Diaby will be extension eligible, but still has time left on his rookie deal. Also, the Bucs are already committed to Mayfield for $40 million, so the extension for him is really only a $15 million difference. White is more than likely gone next year, as he will want to find a chance to start. There’s a solid chance the Bucs may not want to invest $3 million into a backup defensive back for Izien.
That leaves Mayfield’s raise, Evans, Otton, Reddick, and possibly David – assuming he wants to play another year at age 36 – left to pay. That seems like a lot. And it is. But it’s not an insurmountable price tag to overcome.
Odd Man Out
Most teams commit about 60-70% of their salary cap to cash commitments to their top 10 earning players. The league average this year is 63%. That moves up to 65% for just last year’s playoff teams. Seven teams are at 70% or higher led by Kansas City at 76%. This year Tampa Bay has 62% committed. Assuming ownership is invested in extending their current playoff window like they did during the Brady years the top end of that range next year would be $219 million.
Take out Mayfield, Wirfs, Goedeke, McCollum and Godwin Jr. as forgone conclusions with guaranteed money attached to them and Tampa Bay still has right at $85 million with five players to go. Imagine, if you will, 2025 is Lavonte David’s final ride, but Mike Evans comes back for another run. Now the team has $61 million left for four players.
If they decide to hang on to both Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield Jr. they have $24 million left for two more players. That would likely mean the team has to leave one off of the following two players: Cade Otton or Haason Reddick.
Bucs OLB Haason Reddick – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
It would also mean that extensions for Yaya Diaby, Cody Mauch and Calijah Kancey are off the table until 2027. Unless…
Maximizing The Bucs’ Window
The Bucs could also treat 2026 like they did 2021. That year the team fully maximized the Tom Brady-led Super Bowl window. With a $189.5 million salary cap, Tampa Bay spent over $230 million in 2021. That’s a 22% premium over the cap. The 2021 season was a unique situation as the cap contracted due to the effects of COVID-19 on league revenue the year prior. But even if the cap was at the midpoint of the 2020 and 2022 levels – $203.2 million – that still puts the Glazer family’s investment in winning that season at 13% over the cap.
If the Bucs see a similar opportunity next year and make a similar financial commitment, they could open up another $39 million to bring back everyone. This isn’t a sustainable model in that they cannot continue to keep and add. That is to say, after next year there would need to be decisions made on who stays and who goes.
Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Would the Bucs want to keep all or part of the Calijah Kancey/Cody Mauch/Yaya Diaby group? And for each of those players kept who goes among the group already being paid. Vita Vea would be a free agent. Perhaps the Bucs decide an investment in a 340-pound man on the wrong side of 30 is too risky when compared to second contracts for younger players. Antoine Winfield Jr. would be past his guaranteed money, as would Ben Bredeson and Chris Godwin Jr.
But assistant general manager Mike Greenberg is balancing the cap, and more importantly the cash flows, to keep the Buccaneers talent together and the organization competitive.
And having too many good players that you can’t pay them all is a great problem to have in the pantheon of problems.