SR’s Pick-6 Preview: Bucs vs. Jets

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs are 2-0 for the fourth straight season in the Todd Bowles era. No surprise. But can they do something they haven’t been able to do since 2020, which is get a win in Week 3? That’s the narrative in Tampa Bay this week as the team dons its 1976 white and orange throwback uniforms to pay tribute to the franchise’s 50th season against the 0-2 Jets in the Bucs’ home opener on Sunday.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

At 2-0, the Buccaneers have a golden opportunity in Week 3 against the 0-2 Jets to solidify themselves as one of the NFC’s Super Bowl contenders. A win would move Tampa Bay to 3-0 for the first time since 2005, giving them not only confidence but also a critical edge in the NFC South standings. Especially if the 0-2 Panthers can upset the 1-1 Falcons as they did in Week 18 last year.

Todd Bowles’ squad has a chance to prove its fast start is no fluke by handling business against a desperate Jets team fighting to avoid an 0-3 hole. But the danger here is overlooking New York as they did the winless Broncos last year in Week 3, which resulted in a 27-6 loss.

The Jets may be winless and likely without quarterback Justin Fields, who suffered a concussion last week, but they’re dangerous on defense and scrappy enough to pull off an upset. A loss would derail the Bucs’ early momentum and fuel skepticism about whether this team is truly built to sustain success. For Tampa Bay, Week 3 is all about maintaining momentum and validating their hot start.

What’s At Stake For The Jets

For the 0-2 Jets under new head coach Aaron Glenn, Week 3 against the unbeaten Buccaneers is a pivotal moment. Starting 0-3 would be a crushing blow for a franchise trying to establish a new culture and identity under Glenn’s leadership.

This game is about more than just clawing back into the AFC picture, it’s about showing progress, discipline, and fight. Glenn was hired to instill toughness and accountability, and this is the type of matchup where his team needs to reflect that vision. Beating a 2-0 Bucs squad on the road would instantly change the narrative, proving that the Jets are buying into Glenn’s message and capable of bouncing back from adversity.

But if the struggles continue, frustration and outside noise could grow louder, putting early pressure on a first-year coach. For Glenn and the Jets, Week 3 is about pride, credibility, and keeping hope alive.

The Bucs Win If…

For the Buccaneers to stay unbeaten and move to 3-0, it starts with execution on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Tampa Bay must establish balance. Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and the ground game have to keep the Jets’ front seven honest, opening up play-action opportunities for Baker Mayfield.

Protecting Mayfield will be key, as New York’s defensive line can wreck games with Quinnen Williams leading the charge from the inside and the dangerous defensive end duo of Will McDonald IV and Jermaine Johnson on the outside. Will Tristan Wirfs be back this week? Or will Graham Barton make his third start at left tackle opposite Charlie Heck, who starts at right tackle in place of Luke Goedeke?

On defense, the front four has to disrupt the Jets’ backfield and stop running back Breece Hall before he starts. Todd Bowles’ defense thrives on turnovers, and creating extra possessions will tilt the field in Tampa Bay’s favor. The defense is starved for some takeaways and is awaiting its first interception of the season. Limiting explosive plays by Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson and winning on third down against backup QB Tyrod Taylor will be critical.

The Jets Win If…

For the Jets to avoid an 0-3 start, they must find answers on both sides of the ball. Offensively, it begins with protecting the quarterback. New York’s offensive line has struggled, and against Todd Bowles’ aggressive blitz packages, communication and quick decisions will be vital.

Establishing Breece Hall early is a must. He’s the Jets’ best weapon to control tempo and keep the Buccaneers’ front from pinning its ears back against backup QB Tyrod Taylor. Short, high-percentage throws can help build rhythm while avoiding costly turnovers. Tampa Bay’s front four will be without Calijah Kancey, which will help the Jets in pass protection.

Defensively, the Jets strength is their secondary, and they’ll need to lean on it heavily. Limiting Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka with sticky man coverage will give their pass rush time to get home. Sauce Gardner will need to be on top of his game and force Baker Mayfield into his first interception of the year. If New York’s edge rushers can pressure Mayfield the way Houston’s did, and the Jets can win the turnover battle, and keep the game tight into the fourth quarter, they’ll have a chance.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RBs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White vs. Jets MLB Jamien Sherwood

After running Bucky Irving almost exclusively against Atlanta in Week 1, offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard went to a two-back attack with Irving and Rachaad White in the Monday night win in Houston. Irving led the way with 71 yards on the ground, while White chipped in 65 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown with just six seconds left. Don’t be surprised to see Grizzard stick with what’s been working against the Jets, who have the league’s 24th-ranked run defense (138.5 yards per game) – especially since Tampa Bay ran for 169 yards versus the Texans.

Jamien Sherwood is one of the league’s best, most unheralded linebackers. The 25-year old rising star is the Jets’ tackle leader with 19 stops this year. That’s eight more than any other New York defender, and he has a team-high three tackles for loss. Sherwood is fast, active and a hard hitter. Making tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage behind defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will be the key to slowing down Tampa Bay’s terrific tandem of Irving and White.

In the open field, it will be key for Irving to make Sherwood miss at the linebacker level in order for him to rip off a few big runs. And for White, he’ll need to use his big, 6-foot, 220-pound frame to break Sherwood’s tackle attempts or at least drive him backwards for a few yards after contact. At 6-foot-2, 216 pounds, Sherwood looks more like a safety than he does a linebacker.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis vs. Jets RB Breece Hall

Tampa Bay inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis has been really good in run support in his first season as a starter. He’s racked up 14 tackles through two games, including three tackles for loss. Dennis has been quick to diagnosis in the run game and fill his gaps, proving to be better at K.J. Britt in this area of playing middle linebacker in Todd Bowles’ defense. Where Dennis has struggled is in pass coverage, notably in man coverage against running backs coming out of the backfield during the first two weeks of the season.

In Week 1, Dennis took a bad angle in the flat on Bijan Robinson’s 50-yard touchdown catch. In Week 2, Dennis played a role in giving up a 27-yard screen pass to Nick Chubb and was in man coverage on Woody Marks’ 37-yard catch-and-run. Simply put, Dennis needs to have better eye discipline as he gets caught looking into the backfield at the quarterback and can lose sight of where the running back is on the field on those passing plays. Bad angles happen as a result.

With Justin Fields likely out due to a concussion, the Jets offense will lean even more heavily on Breece Hall for yards and points. Running the ball against the Bucs defense has been tough sledding this year for opponents. So look for New York to get Hall involved in the passing game. He’s carried the ball 29 times for 136 yards (4.7 avg.) this year, and only has four catches for 47 yards (11.8 avg.), but one of those was a 33-yard gain in Week 1. Don’t be surprised if Hall gets 4-5 targets on Sunday, especially if the Jets can match him against Dennis in coverage.