SR’s Pick-6 Preview: Bucs at Texans

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs are 1-0 following an opening day win – the team’s fifth in a row and the fourth under head coach Todd Bowles – at Atlanta, 23-20. The road wasn’t as kind to Houston, as the Texans fell to the Rams in Los Angeles, 14-9, in a defensive slugfest. Now both teams meet on Monday Night Football in Houston and Tampa Bay is trying to end its primetime slump after going winless at night in 2024.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

The Buccaneers hit the road Monday night in Houston, chasing a 2-0 start for the fifth consecutive season – a stretch of consistency few franchises can claim. But it’s not just a streak they’re protecting: Baker Mayfield’s retooled offensive line must continue to prove it can produce without left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receivers Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan. Tampa Bay’s offense scored 23 points in the Week 1 win at Atlanta, but left some points out on the field, too.

Another streak worth noting isn’t a positive one. The Bucs went 0-5 in primetime games last year, including the 23-20 home loss to Washington in the Wild Card playoff game. Tampa Bay has three more primetime games coming up this year, and the team can put to rest the narrative that it can’t win at night in Week 2 on Monday Night Football in Houston. If the Bucs don’t prevail, this narrative will continue and could seep into the players’ psyche when they face the Lions in Detroit on Monday Night Football in Week 7.

Tampa Bay has never beaten the Texans in Houston, and hasn’t recorded a win over the Texans since 2003. The Bucs don’t play the Texans very often, but have lost the last five and five out of the six games the two teams have played. More importantly for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, Todd Bowles and Co. want to be 2-0 as they head into a two-game homestand against the Jets and Eagles to finish off September.

What’s At Stake For The Texans

This isn’t just another September game for Houston – it’s a credibility check. The Texans are supposed to be the AFC South’s rising power, but dropping to 0-2 at home, on Monday Night Football, would feed the narrative that last year was a flash in the pan. No team wants to start the year 0-2, as history is not kind to those teams when it comes to making the playoffs. But the Houston offense looked putrid against the L.A. Rams in the season opener, scoring just three field goals in a 14-9 loss. The Texans were shutout in the second half, which upset head coach Demeco Ryans.

Ryans was preaching that his teams need a gut check and a greater sense of urgency for its home opener against Tampa Bay. The Texans offense, which failed to score a touchdown in Los Angeles, erupted for 39 points in a 39-37 come-from-behind win against the Bucs the last time these two teams met in 2023. Right now, the Texans would probably settle for half of that amount of scoring.

Defensively, the Texans have to validate the hype. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can set the tone by trying to wreck Tampa Bay’s retooled offensive line, which will be without All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs for a second straight week. Do that under the national spotlight, and suddenly it’s the Texans, not the Bucs, who will look like the bullies. This game is about legitimacy. And for Houston, losing it at home would be the kind of stumble that could linger all season.

The Bucs Win If…

Baker Mayfield needs to start faster than he did in Week 1 in the passing game, but the Bucs would certainly take three more touchdowns from their team captain. Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka and Sterling Shepard proved to be a nice 1-2-3 punch through the air last week, and should be able to take advantage of a suspect Texans secondary looking to rebound from a less-than-stellar showing in Los Angeles in Week 1.

The key will be protecting Mayfield against the Texans’ dangerous duo at defensive end – Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Right tackle Luke Goedeke will draw Anderson in the matchup, while Graham Barton will be lining up at left tackle again for the injured Tristan Wirfs and will square off against Hunter. Anderson, who had a sack last week, and Hunter both had double-digit sack seasons in 2024. Being more effective running the ball with Bucky Irving will help slow down Houston’s pass rush.

On defense, the Bucs front four needs to generate more than just one sack and should be able to have more success against a very bad Texans offensive line that is without starting center Jake Andrews as well as blocking tight end Cade Stover. Haason Reddick got off to a hot start in Tampa Bay with a sack and seven pressures and Yaya Diaby had a sack that was negated due to a penalty. Perhaps more importantly, the Bucs defense needs to come up away with some takeaways after dropping a couple of interceptions in Atlanta. And Tampa Bay needs kicker Chase McLaughlin to go back to delivering automatic points.

The Texans Win If…

Quarterback C.J. Stroud is known as a playmaker, but he can’t make plays on his back. And he can’t be sacked five times again like Week 1 and expect to deliver a win for Houston. Protecting him – and proving this offense can stay balanced behind new running back Nick Chubb – is the statement Houston needs to make on Monday Night Football. The offensive line needs to come to play and rise up against a very good defensive front in Tampa Bay. Establishing Chubb early will help, but that’s going to be difficult against a stingy Bucs run defense. Nico Collins needs to step up after a three-catch, 25-yard performance in Los Angeles.

Defensively, the Texans fared well in L.A., allowing just two touchdowns. The pass rushing tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter needs to take over the game and sack and pressure Baker Mayfield if Houston is going to win this game. The same could be said for defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and Tim Settle. More importantly, high-priced cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson need to rebound from poor performances in Week 1 and play much better for the Houston secondary.

This is an early gut check for head coach Demeco Ryans, who was out-coached by Sean McVay out in L.A. in Week 1. He’s challenged his team to play better this week. How will his players respond? And can he step up as a head coach? At least the Texans will have the home crowd on their side for this prime time game, which should help the defense try to rattle Mayfield and the Bucs’ retooled offensive line.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs OTs Graham Barton and Luke Goedeke vs. Texans DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.

There will actually be a couple of key matchups to watch in this game for the Bucs offense. Will Anderson Jr., a former first-round pick, is one of the league’s best young pass rushers and notched his first sack of the season last week in Los Angeles after a breakout year in 2024 with 11 sacks. He’ll face right tackle Luke Goedeke most of the game and presents a big challenge with the perfect blend of speed, strength and athleticism. Now that he’s in his third season, Anderson also has plenty of experience to aid his cause.

The Bucs moved center Graham Barton to left tackle due to his athleticism in the absence of All-Pro Tristan Wirfs and he fared well in Week 1 at Atlanta. Barton did have a holding penalty, but otherwise held veterans Leonard Floyd and Arnold Ebiketie and rookies James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker, the Falcons’ first-round picks, at bay in pass protection. Monday night will bring a far stiffer challenge with Hunter, who has six seasons with double-digit sacks, including his first last year in Houston. The 30-year old still has it and will present a tough task for Barton.

The key for the Bucs will be to establish Bucky Irving and Rachaad White and the ground game and take advantage of Goedeke and Barton’s ability to run block. Limiting the number of times that Hunter and Anderson will be in pass rush mode will be helpful for Tampa Bay’s offense. Getting an early lead over the Texans will also put the Bucs in a situation in the fourth quarter where they can lean on the running game and milk the clock en route to a 2-0 start.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs OLB Haason Reddick vs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud

The last time Todd Bowles and his defense faced C.J. Stroud, the Texans quarterback set a new NFL rookie record with 470 passing yards and five touchdowns in a come-from-behind, 39-37 win over the Bucs in Houston back in 2023. But this year’s Tampa Bay defense is totally different than it was three years ago with only five starters remaining from that unit. One of the newcomers Bowles will be banking on is outside linebacker Haason Reddick, who had a great debut in red and pewter with a sack and seven pressures last week in Atlanta.

Reddick will be matched up against right tackle Aireontae Ersay, a 6-foot-6, 330-pound rookie, who struggled in his NFL debut last week in Los Angeles. Reddick has experience, speed and athleticism on his side as he looks to get back to his double-digit sacks this season ways versus a second-round pick. He’ll have to put some heat on Stroud to help slow down Houston’s passing attack, which can be potent if the Texans quarterback has enough time to throw.

Stroud’s game against the Bucs was a true outlier, as he only threw 18 touchdowns the rest of his rookie season in 2023 in addition to just five interceptions. Last year, Stroud disappointed with just 20 TDs while throwing 12 picks. He started off his third NFL season with an interception versus the Rams and no touchdowns, so he’ll be looking to rebound in Week 2 with another good game against the Buccaneers.