Christian McCaffrey has been a fantasy football cornerstone for years, routinely the first player off the board and the driving force behind many title-winning teams. But heading into the 2025 season, doubts are starting to surface about whether he’s still worthy of a first-round selection.
For fantasy managers balancing McCaffrey’s ceiling with growing concerns, it’s essential to understand both sides of the equation. Let’s break down the pros and cons of drafting one of the NFL’s most polarizing fantasy assets.
The Case For Christian McCaffrey
When healthy, McCaffrey is unmatched in fantasy football. His 2022 and 2023 campaigns were nothing short of legendary, finishing as RB2 and RB1 in fantasy points per game, respectively, and amassing 152 receptions, over 3,900 total yards, and 34 touchdowns across those two seasons. This level of dual-threat production makes him a rare asset capable of single-handedly deciding fantasy matchups.
Even in a limited 2024 season, McCaffrey’s role in the 49ers’ offense was as dominant as ever. In his three healthy games, he handled 43 of the team’s 50 running back carries, an astounding 86% carry share. This type of workload is nearly extinct in today’s NFL, where committees are the norm, and it’s a testament to both his talent and the trust placed in him by head coach Kyle Shanahan. When McCaffrey is on the field, he’s the focal point of the offense, which translates directly to fantasy gold.
The 49ers’ trade of Deebo Samuel could further boost McCaffrey’s value, opening up more targets and receptions out of the backfield. Given his elite receiving skills, any increase in passing-game involvement only raises his already sky-high ceiling, especially in PPR leagues.
McCaffrey’s versatility as both a runner and receiver forces defenses into tough decisions, often dictating personnel and coverage schemes. This schematic advantage keeps him on the field in all situations, maximizing his snap share and fantasy opportunity.
For the first time in years, McCaffrey is not being selected within the first couple of picks of fantasy drafts.
For the first time since Christian McCaffrey’s second year, we can draft him outside the 1st round.
‘24: ADP 1
‘23: ADP 2
‘22: ADP 2
‘21: ADP 1
‘20: ADP 1
‘19: ADP 3
‘18: ADP 13If there’s anyone we’ve misapplied “injury prone” to, it’s him.
Good chance we’re doing it again.
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) May 17, 2025
His ADP initially hovered around the 2nd/3rd round turn, but it’s steadily risen into the late first round. Even at that price, the upside is tremendous — if he stays healthy, McCaffrey could easily be the best value pick in all of fantasy football.
The Case Against Christian McCaffrey
The most enormous red flag for McCaffrey is his recent injury history. In 2024, he played just four games, missing time due to Achilles tendinitis in both legs and later suffering a PCL injury that ended his season early. When he did play, he didn’t reasonably produce at the levels we’ve come to expect, averaging only 12 fantasy points per game. At age 29, with a history of soft tissue and lower body injuries, the risk of further breakdown is substantial.
McCaffrey now carries one of the widest ranges of outcomes among early-round picks. While his ceiling remains league-winning, the floor is exactly what we saw in 2024, a lost season due to injury. This volatility is particularly concerning for managers drafting him as a cornerstone of their roster.
While we haven’t necessarily seen signs of decline, McCaffrey is 29 years old. Running backs rarely age gracefully. We’ve seen sudden and unexpected fall-offs before, and it’s not outside of the realm of possibilities that it happens to him this season.
Even with a slightly discounted ADP, McCaffrey still demands a significant investment — he’s going in the first round. Drafting him means passing on younger, ascending stars with cleaner outlooks. Are you willing to skip over names like Ashton Jeanty, Brian Thomas Jr., or Nico Collins to take that gamble?
McCaffrey’s injuries have burned fantasy managers in recent years. He’s been a league winner three times, but he’s also been a league loser three times, with injuries costing managers their first-round pick. This has naturally led some managers to remove him from their draft boards entirely. While this could create value for the bold, it also reflects the real risk and frustration that comes with relying on a player with such a checkered recent health record.
Should You Draft McCaffrey?
McCaffrey is the ultimate risk-reward proposition for 2025 fantasy football drafts. His upside remains unrivaled. If he stays healthy, he could once again be the difference-maker that propels teams to championships. But the risk of injury and potential decline of McCaffrey is impossible to ignore.
For fantasy managers drafting near the turn, the decision to take McCaffrey could define your season, for better or worse.